What Do Models Say About Packers’ Playoff Chances?
GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers are headed to the playoffs.
Don’t tell coach Matt LaFleur. Not with five games to go. After all, the playoffs are decided by winning games. Games are won on the football field and not mathematical modeling.
“We’re a .500 football team,” LaFleur said of his 6-6 club. “That’s where we’re at. That’s the reality of it.”
He’s right, of course. By record, the Packers are the picture of mediocrity. By trend, the Packers are more than just playoff challengers. In what was supposed to be the toughest stretch of the season, surging Jordan Love led the Packers to victories over the Los Angeles Chargers, the NFC North-leading Detroit Lions and the AFC West-leading and defending Super Bowl-champion Kansas City Chiefs.
A Week 8 home loss to the Minnesota Vikings was Green Bay’s fourth in a row and sent its record cratering to 2-5. At that point, the Packers were slated to have the sixth pick in the NFL Draft. That a 2-5 team had reached the playoffs in four of the previous five seasons seemed like a neat fact that had nothing to do with the Packers.
Instead, following a heart-stopping 27-19 upset of the Chiefs, they’ve won four of their last five games.
“That is a very good football team, and it was no easy task beating them. I think we made a statement,” center Josh Myers said.
The closing schedule is a gift from the playoff gods: at the Giants (4-8) on Monday night, home against the Buccaneers (5-7), at the Panthers (1-11) and Vikings (6-6), and home against the Bears (4-8). That’s a combined record of 20-40 or a .333 winning percentage.
By PFF’s modeling, Green Bay faces the second-easiest schedule to conclude the season.
The Packers are 6.5-point favorites against the Giants, though they are coming off their bye and have won two in a row.
Here’s what the playoff models suggest for the Packers.
The Athletic: 75.3 percent to make the playoffs, fifth-best in the NFC.
Playoff Status: 71 percent to reach the playoffs, including 23 percent advancing to the second round. They are twice as likely to make it as the sixth seed than the seventh seed, with the most-likely first-round opponent being the Detroit Lions.
New York Times: 70 percent to reach the playoffs; 2 percent win NFC North. That’s the sixth-best percentage in the NFC.
FanDuel: 68.3 percent to reach the playoffs by implied probability based on -215 odds. In the six-team jumble for the final two NFC playoff spots, the Vikings (6-6) are +105, the Rams (6-6) are +164, the Seahawks (6-6) are +194, the Buccaneers (5-7) are +225 and the Saints (5-7) are +240.
ESPN Power Football Index: 66.6 percent to reach the playoffs, including 20.2 percent to reach the divisional round.
Team Rankings: 66.1 percent to reach the playoffs.
Pro Football Focus: 66.0 percent to reach the playoffs. What’s interesting is those are the ninth-best odds; the eight teams ahead of them are all between 97 percent and 99.9 percent.
Power Rankings Guru: 64.0 percent to reach the playoffs, up from 36.6 percent to start the season.
Number Fire: 59.2 percent to reach the playoffs, but just 2.6 percent to reach the divisional round.
