‘Money Isn’t Issue’ as Packers Deal with Cap While Chasing Watt
GREEN BAY, Wis. – With the Green Bay Packers sitting uncomfortably over the salary cap, they can’t afford to sign J.J. Watt.
Right?
Not so fast.
“Money isn’t an issue,” one team’s high-ranking personnel man said during a conversation about Watt.
According to OverTheCap.com and based on its projection of a $180.5 million salary cap, the Packers are $11.45 million over the cap. Earlier in the week, the NFL announced the cap “will be no less than” $180 million. While teams might be planning their budgets on that amount, many around the league – perhaps even most – believe the cap will be higher than that.
The expectation, one source said, is the cap will be, at a minimum, about $184.5 million but potentially in the neighborhood of $188 million. Another source is even more optimistic, believing the cap will wind up at $190 million or more.
Going with that lower level of optimism, the Packers would move to $7.45 million over a cap of $184.5 million.
From there, for all the doom-and-gloom talk, the challenge to get far enough under the cap to not only sign the draft picks and have enough maneuverability for in-season roster moves but to actually add to the roster isn’t insurmountable. It all depends on how much general manager Brian Gutekunst is willing to use the team credit card.
“I think we’re going to have to do that this year, for sure,” Gutekunst said recently. “I think the situation our football team is in right now, we have one goal in mind. If there’s an opportunity to take some risk to help us win now, we’re certainly in that mode. Obviously, with this year’s situation, I think most teams in the league are going to be kicking money out to try to keep their teams together. We’ll certainly be no different.”
The easy moves have been made. By restructuring left tackle David Bakhtiari’s contract and releasing Rick Wagner and Christian Kirksey, the Packers are about 60 percent of the way to the break-even point.
There are three other easy, Bakhtiari-style, accounting moves to be made, with large roster bonuses due to quarterback Aaron Rodgers ($6.8 million) and outside linebackers Za’Darius Smith ($5 million) and Preston Smith ($4 million). By turning those roster bonuses into signing bonuses, the Packers would create $9.03 million of cap space. That would at least get the Packers below the cap in time for the start of the league-year on March 17.
But that doesn’t sign Watt.
The big moves are a renegotiation of Rodgers’ contract and an extension for receiver Davante Adams. Just how much money can be created with those deals with tell the tale of the offseason.
“There’s always a lever you can pull,” said one executive of a team also pursuing J.J. Watt.
With Adams entering his final season under contract, an extension with the record-setting receiver is a no-brainer. In 2021, he is due a $12.25 million base salary and has a cap number of almost $16.8 million. Looking at those numbers, an agent familiar with the way the Packers structure their contracts figured they could lop that cap number down to about $9.6 million – a savings of almost $7.2 million. A Year 1 minimum salary and big Year 2 roster bonus would get the Packers the cap space they need and the money Adams has earned.
Rodgers not only is the reigning MVP but the team’s biggest money tree. In 2021, his $37.2 million cap charge includes a $14.7 million base salary, the aforementioned $6.8 million roster bonus and $14.352 million of prorated signing bonus from his current contract. If Gutekunst really wanted to go all in, he could pay Rodgers at the league minimum and turn the rest of the salary and the roster bonus into signing bonus.
For the sake of easy math, let’s give Rodgers a $2.6 salary, which is about double the league minimum. The remaining $12.1 million of base salary and the $6.8 million roster bonus would turn into $18.9 million of signing bonus, which would be spread in $6.3 million installments over the 2011, 2022 and 2023 caps. With that, Rodgers’ new cap charge would be $24.602 million: $2.6 million in base salary, $20.652 million of prorated signing bonus and $1.35 million of other bonus money. Voila, that’s $12.6 million of cap space.
Assuming a starting point of $7.45 million over a $184.5 million cap, the Smith Bros. restructures, Adams extension and Rodgers renegotiation would give the Packers about $16.85 million of cap space. That is more than enough money to re-sign tight end Robert Tonyan, handle the draft picks and make a big signing or two
Could Watt be one of those additions? A high-ranking team executive figured Watt would command a contract in the range of $10 million to $12 million per year. But, again, it’s all in how that deal is structured. A three-year, $30 million contract could have cap charges of $6 million in Year 1 and $12 million in Year 2 and Year 3.
With Watt’s ability to play up and down the line, the Packers could deem outside linebacker Preston Smith and/or defensive lineman Dean Lowry expendable. Releasing Smith would create $8 million of cap space and releasing Lowry would create $3.3 million. Smaller savings could be found by releasing cornerback Josh Jackson ($1.33 million), receiver Devin Funchess ($1.27 million), inside linebacker Oren Burks ($945,000), punter JK Scott ($920,000) and long snapper Hunter Bradley ($920,000).
