NFC North Offseason Game Plans

How will the Green Bay Packers, Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears attack the offseason? Get the scoop in our NFC North roundtable.

Author:
Bill Huber
Publish date:
Feb 14, 2023 10:43 AM EST

In this story:

Green Bay Packers

GREEN BAY, Wis. – There was a changing of the guard in the NFC North in 2022. Will it be a lasting change or a blip on the radar?

After racing to three consecutive division titles on the strength of back-to-back-to-back 13-win seasons, the Green Bay Packers crashed to 8-9. It was the Minnesota Vikings who ran away with the division crown on the strength of an incredible 11 victories that were decided by one score.

Will the Packers rebound? Were the Vikings one-year, close-game wonders? Or are the Detroit Lions poised to take over as the division’s big dog after years of being a cuddly kitty?

It was Detroit that kept Green Bay out of the playoffs by rolling into Lambeau Field and shocking the Packers 20-16 in Week 18. Can quarterback Jared Goff and running back Jamaal Williams replicate their big-time seasons? Can a defense that was mostly terrible outside of outclassing the Packers in both matchups take a big step forward?

Sportsbooks don’t think much of any of the NFC North teams, though the Lions have two first-round picks, the Bears have a zillion dollars of cap space, the Vikings have Justin Jefferson and the Packers might have the best quarterback, regardless of whether it’s Aaron Rodgers or Jordan Love.

Here’s an offseason overview put together by our team publishers: Bill Huber of Packer Central, John Maakaron of All Lions, Will Ragatz of Inside the Vikings and Gene Chamberlain of Bear Digest.

Green Bay Packers

Photo: Aaron Rodgers (USA Today Sports Images)

Biggest need?

The Packers have a lot of holes, which is why they went 8-9. On offense, top tight ends Robert Tonyan and Marcedes Lewis are set to hit free agency. A strong draft class awaits at that position – a real rarity. Defensively, again, it’s the free agents, with Jarran Reed and Dean Lowry on the line and Adrian Amos and key backup Rudy Ford at safety. Rashan Gary’s torn ACL exposed the shortcomings at outside linebacker.

Draft or free agency?

I’d guess quite a bit like last year, when general manager Brian Gutekunst made some real solid budget signings – Reed, Ford and cornerback/kick returner Keisean Nixon among them – but the big moves were made in the draft. There just isn’t the money to make any big splashes in free agency. Really, if the Packers are going to return to the playoffs, it’s going to be because of a promising 2022 draft class.

What’s toughest roster decision?

Well, this is the most obvious answer in the history of sports journalism. Does Aaron Rodgers want to play in 2023 or will he decide he wants to spend of his life in the dark? If he wants to play, will it be with the Packers? Or will he be traded and the baton passed to 2020 first-round pick Jordan Love? If the Packers go with Love, Gutekunst might let just about every free agent walk.

How’s the cap?

According to OverTheCap.com, the Packers are about $20.4 million over the cap. If they trade Rodgers, they will be about $29 million on the wrong side of the ledger. There are plenty of levers to pull in terms of contract restructures, though that’s just the equivalent of whipping out a new credit card to pay off the old one.

Minnesota Vikings

Photo: Adam Thielen (USA Today Sports Images)

Biggest need?

Defense, defense, defense. Landing Brian Flores as coordinator should help the Vikings improve their abysmal defense, but change needs to happen on the personnel side, as well. Cornerback stands out as the single biggest need, as all three starters are hitting free agency and last year's top two draft picks at the position got hurt in their rookie years. The defensive line could also use reinforcements.

Draft or free agency?

Both, of course! But for a team that's in win-now mode until proven otherwise, free agency is the best place to find instant contributors. A cornerback like Byron Murphy Jr., Cameron Sutton or Jonathan Jones could really help. Offensively, Kevin O'Connell's group could use quality veterans at wide receiver and guard. The Vikings only have five draft picks and no second-rounder because of the T.J. Hockenson trade, so there's a lot riding on their pick at No. 23 overall. That might be a corner, too.

What’s toughest roster decision?

Broadly, it's what to do with the expensive veteran talent on this roster. Adam Thielen, Harrison Smith, Dalvin Cook and Eric Kendricks are beloved household names in Minnesota who have been around since at least 2017, but they're getting older and have cap hits in the $11 million to 20 million range next season. All four of those guys can still play to some extent, but are they worth their prices? Some tough decisions lie ahead.

How’s the cap?

The reason why the Vikings may move on from some expensive mainstays is that they're near the bottom of the NFL in salary cap space, needing to clear over $20 million before the start of the league-year. There are tons of ways to create cap space, so the Vikings will be able to add some impact free agents, but they don't have nearly the financial flexibility of a team like the Bears. Also, a market-setting extension for Justin Jefferson is likely coming this offseason. Can they afford to extend Kirk Cousins again alongside Jefferson's upcoming big contract?

Detroit Lions

Photo: D.J. Chark (left) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (USA Today Sports Images)

Biggest need?

The Lions need to focus on retooling their defense this offseason. It is expected the team will bring in one or two cornerbacks to aid a pass defense that finished 31st in yards allowed per passing attempt. While the defense overall improved during the second half of the season – bookended by victories over the Aaron Rodgers-led Packers – the team needs to upgrade the talent in order to limit opposing wideouts in the NFC North.

Draft or free agency?

Sitting with the No. 6 pick, which was obtained from the Rams in the Matthew Stafford trade, it would not be surprising if the Lions invested a top pick in a cornerback. Several of the early mock drafts have the Lions selecting cornerback Devon Witherspoon out of Illinois. Detroit also has its own pick at No. 18. I don't see the Lions making a big splash in free agency, as they are building through the draft.

What’s toughest roster decision?

I think the toughest decision facing general manager Brad Holmes is whether or not to bring back wideout D.J. Chark. He signed for $10 million last season, but it is uncertain whether he would accept an incentives-laden pay cut to return to Detroit. While productive when healthy, the talented wideout missed six games in his first campaign in Motown.

How’s the cap?

The Lions have more cap space than last offseason to re-sign their own free agents. Currently, the team has approximately $14 million in cap space, but could easily add $20 million in additional space by moving on from veterans like Michael Brockers, Halapoulivaati Vaitai and Romeo Okwara. Their cap number available ranks 13th in the NFL.

Chicago Bears

Photo: David Montgomery (USA Today Sports Images)

Biggest need?

Defensive linemen and linebackers. They need tackles, ends and linebackers of all types. The Bears were last in sacks, were led in sacks by safety Jaquan Brisker with four, and finished 31st defending the run. So, there's not much going on for them in their front seven besides defensive tackle Justin Jones and linebacker Jack Sanborn, who was an undrafted rookie and projects as a backup. They need multiple players at each position.

Draft or free agency?

They'll use both for each of those needs because the deficiency is so great. The only linebacker under contract among their first four is Sanborn. They had 6 1/2 sacks total from every defensive end they had on the roster last year, so they'll look to upgrade that spot. The three-technique tackle needs to be a player more dominant in this scheme than Jones, who is fine as a backup. Jalen Carter is made for the Bears defense. Will Anderson Jr. might not be the type of edge rusher who fits the scheme.

What’s toughest roster decision?

Giving a contract to running back David Montgomery. He pours his soul into each run, is always among the league leaders breaking tackles and contributes as a pass blocker and receiver. But it's questionable whether they project a fifth-year running back who is the slowest one on their roster as a fit for their future. Even though they say they love him, the offense seems to be more about speed or speed and power and Montgomery is not a breakaway back.

How’s the cap?

There are no teams in the league set up better for spending money than the Bears, who have a league-high $85.6 million in effective cap space available as of Super Sunday. It's about $34 million more than anyone else. It was almost comical when GM Ryan Poles suggested at his postseason press conference that he wasn't about to spend wildly in free agency. The obvious response: And why not?