Three Reasons Why Packers Will Beat Panthers Today
GREEN BAY, Wis. – Following back-to-back losses, the Green Bay Packers are down in the NFC playoff race. But they’re not out.
Not hardly.
According to The New York Times, the Packers have a 22 percent chance to reach the playoffs. But if they can beat the Carolina Panthers on Sunday, that would set up a huge Sunday night showdown at the Minnesota Vikings. Win that game, and they could have a win-and-in finale against the Chicago Bears.
But first, they’ve got to beat the Panthers. And they will. Here are the weekly reasons for optimism.
1. Joe Barry’s Big Day
Joe Barry’s Packers defense was embarrassed by Tommy DeVito. It was destroyed by Baker Mayfield. On Sunday, the matchup is against Panthers rookie Bryce Young, the No. 1 overall pick of the 2023 NFL Draft.
Young has not been good. Of 30 qualifying quarterbacks, he’s 30th in passer rating, 29th in completion percentage and 30th in yards per attempt. With nine touchdowns vs. nine interceptions, only New England’s Mac Jones has a worse touchdown-to-interception ratio. He hasn’t reached 200 passing yards since October. The No. 1 receiver, former Vikings star Adam Thielen, is averaging 9.8 yards per catch.
With an ineffective passing game and inefficient running game, Carolina ranks 29th in scoring, 30th in total offense, 32nd in yards per play, 32nd in passing per play and 24th in rushing per play. Plus, it’s 24th on third down and 29th in the red zone.
Otherwise, to quote the great football historian and breakfast aficionado Tony the Tiger, they’re “Greeeeeeat!”
The Panthers are on an eight-game streak of failing to reach 20 points. The last two games, they scored six in a loss to New Orleans and nine in a win over Atlanta.
“It’s about us being able to show up and play our game,” Panthers offensive coordinator Thomas Brown told reporters this week. “I think being able to be consistent, build upon that (game-winning) last drive (last week) in particular, because that gives you a glimpse of what happens when we actually execute and are on the same page, we're making plays across the board, we can put together some drives.”
After a good week of practice, Barry is hopeful his unit will bounce back.
“Sunday did not go well but at no point during the game or, obviously, Sunday night going back and watching it, have I ever questioned any of our guys’ desire or our heart or the play style that they play with,” he said. “That’s something that I demand that we demand every single day is the play style that we go out and practice with and play with. I’ve never seen anything to question that from our group of guys.”
2. Red-Zone Rebound
You’ve heard of The Longest Yard. For the Packers, the story in their losses could be called The Longest 20 Yards.
The Packers went 2-of-5 in the red zone in last week’s loss to the Buccaneers as well as the week before against the Giants. In fact, in their last four losses, Green Bay went 6-of-19 in the red zone. Compare that to 7-of-10 in their three-game sweep of the Chargers, Lions and Chiefs.
The loss to Tampa Bay started in disappointing fashion, with the Aaron Jones-powered drive stalling when Jones was swallowed up on third down and Jordan Love air-mailed Jayden Reed on fourth down.
“It’s just a matter of us going out there and executing,” offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said. “You always look at the game plans and things you can do better with the scheme and all that stuff, so there’s that, and then just us going down there and executing and making sure when the plays are there, we take it.
“It’s hard to throw the ball down there, obviously, [with a] condensed field, so you’ve got to make sure you lean on the run game, and then when you get those opportunities to throw the ball, when you have plays, you’ve got to make them.”
In the red zone the last two weeks, Love was 7-of-15 with two touchdowns; the previous three games, he was 11-of-15 with seven touchdowns.
For the season, Carolina is 31st in the red zone with an opponent touchdown rate of 71.1 percent.
“I think giving guys a shot in the end zone and going and making plays is the biggest thing we need to focus on,” Love said. “I still think we’re a really good team. Once we get down to the red zone, I think we do a really good job, we have done a really good job. Obviously, last week wasn’t good enough, but I think we’ll bounce back this week and be able to put up some points down there.”
3. Holiday Turnovers
The Panthers are minus-6 in turnovers, sixth-worst in the NFL. They have a modest 17 giveaways but a worst-in-the-league 11 takeaways.
However, they were plus-2 in last week’s victory over Atlanta with zero giveaways and two interceptions. Plus, four of their takeaways have come in the last three weeks with one interception in each of those games. Young has thrown one interception in his last four games.
The Packers are plus-6 in their wins – they were plus-5 in beating the Chargers, Lions and Chiefs. Of note, 13 of their 16 giveaways have come in their eight losses.
