Three Reasons Why Packers Will Lose to Panthers Today
GREEN BAY, Wis. – After two consecutive losses and with their playoff hopes resting on thin ice, the Green Bay Packers desperately need a victory. Fortunately for them, Sunday’s opponent, the Carolina Panthers, has an NFL-worst 2-12 record.
While the Packers should roll, here are three reasons why their Christmas Eve trip to Charlotte could deliver a scoop of coal to their playoff hopes.
1. Hot Hubbard
The Panthers fired coach Frank Reich on Nov. 27. Their offense still stinks but the running game has shown some teeth.
The last three games, Chuba Hubbard carried 25 times for 104 yards and two touchdowns vs. the Buccaneers, 23 times for 87 yards against the Saints and 22 times for 87 yards against the Falcons. That’s helped the Panthers rank fourth in the league in rushing over that span.
It’s not explosive with 4.3 yards per carry, but the volume is there and will test Green Bay’s perpetually porous run defense.
“I've worked my best to be an all-around back, catching the ball, running the ball, and that's just something I've developed since my rookie year,” Hubbard said recently. “I pride myself on focusing on the little things and the details. So, I try to catch as many perfect balls as possible. It's not really about the amount of balls I'm catching. It’s not like, ‘Let's go catch 50 balls.’
“I want to feel comfortable. I want to feel good that I caught every single angle, every single ball at a good angle. That's when I just say that's good for the day. So, just really focusing on making every rep perfect.”
The Packers enter the game ranked 30th in rushing yards allowed per game (138.8) and 28th in yards allowed per carry (4.55). They sort of limited the Bucs’ rushing attack last week; before that, they allowed 140-plus rushing yards in five consecutive games, bookended by 205 yards against Pittsburgh and 209 against the Giants. That was Green Bay’s longest 140-yard streak since 2001.
It’s worth noting that starting defensive tackle TJ Slaton is questionable with a knee injury.
2. Beware the Panthers’ Defense
Carolina is 29th in points allowed. That’s bad.
However, the rest of the numbers show why Ejiro Evero is considered one of the better defensive coordinators in the NFL. And why he’s a name to watch if Green Bay fires Joe Barry.
Carolina ranks third in total defense. It’s eighth in yards allowed per play, 11th in yards per rushing attempt and 10th in yards per passing attempt. Even while ranking 31st in sack percentage, it’s seventh on third down.
In last week’s victory over Atlanta, the Panthers held the Falcons’ excellent running game to 52 yards on 31 carries. That’s 1.7 yards per carry. Underrated defensive tackle Derrick Brown and two-time Pro Bowl outside linebacker Brian Burns lead the way.
“It starts with those guys up front,” Evero said this week. “The challenge was we needed to be better than them up front – our outside linebackers, our interior D-linemen – and we wanted to be more physical and dominant up front than they were. And those guys delivered on that.
“Derrick has been doing what he normally does. Burns played one of his best games of the year. I just think all the way across the board, we were very physical and very stout up front. That's where it started.”
Working in Green Bay’s favor is scheme familiarity. Evero and Barry come from the same coaching tree. Incredibly, according to Sport Radar, the Packers are 11th in blitz rate and the Panthers are 12th.
“They do a lot of similar things, similar style of defense,” quarterback Jordan Love said. “There’s a couple different mix-ups but I think they’re a good defense. I think they’re sticky on the back end, they’ve got a really good front. Obviously, we’ve got a lot of banked reps against our defense so that all helps, and we did a good amount of reps against our defense in the periods today. Just going against a familiar defense always helps.”
3. Air Hekker
Which player will have the highest career completion percentage at Bank of America Field?
Surprise, it’s not Jordan Love. Nor is it Bryce Young.
Rather, it’s Panthers punter Johnny Hekker.
In his 12th year in the NFL, the four-time All-Pro punter has a long track record on fakes. For his career, he is 15-of24 passing, a 62.5 percent completion rate that is better than Love (62.2) and Young (59.4).
Hekker will keep the Packers’ jammers on their toes. And that impacts the ability to cover a punt.
“How are you going to play it?” Packers special teams coordinator Rich Bisaccia said. “You going to put two guys to one side? Are you going to go double on both sides? They have some tremendous gunners playing out there; we call them flyers. No. 90 [outside linebacker Amaré Barno] is a big 6-4, 6-5 fast guy on one side and 42 [safety Sam Franklin] is on the other and he’s a tremendous player for them.”
Carolina’s special teams are strong and will best Bisaccia’s underwhelming unit. Running back Raheem Blackshear is averaging 30.8 yards per kickoff return. Receiver Ihmir Smith-Marsette is averaging 8.2 yards per punt return with a 79-yard touchdown. Kicker Eddy Pineiro is 24-of-28 on field goals.
“It’ll be a good challenge for us,” Bisaccia said, “but I know we’re looking forward to it.”
