Packers at Vikings: Three Reasons to Worry
GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers are 1.5-point favorites for Sunday’s season-opening game at the Minnesota Vikings. In three seasons, Matt LaFleur is 15-3 against NFC North foes. The last two seasons, Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has thrown an unfathomable 38 touchdown passes vs. zero interceptions in division games.
The history, of course, means nothing. Here are three reasons to be concerned headed into the 124th edition of the border battle.
Offense: Vikings Meet at the QB
For the Packers, their season will hinge on the availability of left tackle David Bakhtiari, who suffered a torn ACL on Dec. 31, 2020, and right tackle Elgton Jenkins, who suffered a torn ACL on Nov. 21, 2021. For the Vikings, their season will hinge on the health of their outside linebackers. Za’Darius Smith missed almost all of the 2021 season and Danielle Hunter missed all of the 2020 season and most of 2021.
For Sunday, at least, it could be advantage, Vikings.
While Smith and Hunter will be attacking Aaron Rodgers, will either of the Packers’ tackles be available to keep the MVP quarterback out of harm’s way? Bakhtiari and Jenkins are questionable on the injury report; Bakhtiari didn’t practice on Friday, though. You know Za’Darius Smith is fired up to face his former team; he might hyperventilate at the site of Yosh Nijman and Royce Newman as the tackles.
“I’ve been preparing for this time to come for a while now,” Smith said this week. “Hopefully we get a chance to take him down a couple times.”
Hunter had 14.5 sacks in 2018 and another 14.5 in 2019. Smith had 13.5 sacks in 2019 and 12.5 sacks in 2020. Based solely on rushing the passer, Smith and Hunter and Green Bay’s duo of Rashan Gary and Preston Smith are about as good as it gets. Packers coach Matt LaFleur can scheme around any pass-protection shortcomings to some extent but, if the Packers have to make a play on third-and-10, can they keep Smith and Hunter away from Rodgers?
“When all those guys up front are a family and they work together, that's when it clicks,” Vikings outside linebackers coach and pass rush specialist Mike Smith, who coached Smith the previous three seasons in Green Bay, said this week. “I've been fortunate to be part of a lot of good teams with a lot of good rushers, and there ain't no doubt about it, they're one of the top [duos] in the league.”
Defense: What’s Cooking?
Vikings star Dalvin Cook ran for 1,135 yards and 13 touchdowns in 2019, 1,557 yards and 16 touchdowns in 2020 and 1,159 yards and six touchdowns in 2021. Over those three seasons, only Titans star Derrick Henry has more rushing yards and scrimmage yards than Cook.
Green Bay’s run defense has ranged from bad to terrible the last three seasons. Will it be better in 2022? Defensive coordinator Joe Barry will find out along with the rest of us.
“That’s the one thing that is difficult to gauge this time of year just because you truly don’t know until you have to go get someone down to the ground,” Barry said on Thursday. “But stopping the run and playing the run is something I know our guys take a lot of pride in and we put a lot of work into it. It’s obviously a challenge the better back you play and, with Cook, they have an incredible back, so it’s going to be a great challenge. That’s what it starts with as far as everything that we talk about, from a game-week progression. It starts with stopping the run every single week and this week’s no different.”
The Packers will have their hands full dealing with premier receiver Justin Jefferson. That challenge becomes exponentially more difficult if quarterback Kirk Cousins can dial up some play-action passes behind a productive running game. On play-action passes last season, Cousins ranked third in passer rating (116.0), fifth in touchdowns (12) and ninth in yards per attempt (9.0), according to Pro Football Focus.
“There’s going to be times where we’re going to have to give 18 [Jefferson] some attention, we’re going to have to man up in the run and vice-versa,” Barry said. “When we give Dalvin the respect to stop the run, we’ve got to hold up in the back end. That’s what makes an offense like this, when they have two elite weapons, so unique because very few times do you play an offense that has top-three players at a position that is a wideout and a back.”
Special Teams: Coverage Units
That the Packers allowed a 59-yard kickoff return and a 35-yard punt return in the preseason is irrelevant.
What is relevant is the Vikings have two proven returners to test a work-in-progress Packers special teams. With the Eagles in 2020, Jalen Reagor returned a punt 73 yards for a touchdown at Lambeau Field. At the end of training camp, the Vikings dealt two draft picks to the Eagles to acquire Reagor.
“He’s a very stout, cocky-built guy,” Vikings special teams coordinator Matt Daniels said. “He’s not really narrow. He’s got thick, strong legs, big glutes, really nice calves. Yeah, I’m salivating over this guy. Just being able to see him in person it’s like, ‘Man this guy’s got some weight to him.' He’s really hard to tackle. He has the ability to make you miss. He’s elusive. And, obviously, he has the home run speed to take it the distance. That’s what makes him so spooky.”
Kickoff returner Kene Nwangwu has spooky speed, too, with his 4.32 in the 40 at Iowa State’s pro day in 2021. As a rookie, he averaged 32.2 yards per return with a league-leading two touchdowns.
With Reagor and Nwangwu, first-year Packers special teams coordinator Rich Bisaccia’s coverage units will face double trouble in their debut.
“He’s really, really fast, and he’s trying to get the edge all the time,” Bisaccia said of Reagor. “Sadly enough, we’re looking back through his past and, the last time he played Green Bay, he had a big day. So, we’re preparing for that. Certainly, a big get for them. Tremendous speed. They’ve got a good return game going and we’ll have to see how we play in coverage.”
Part of the challenge of being a special teams coordinator is you never really know who your building-block players are going to be until the 53-man roster is settled. Safeties Vernon Scott and Shawn Davis, for instance, should have been four-unit players. On the other hand, the Packers signed safety Rudy Ford on Aug. 31.
“We’re still in the process of building a unit,” Bisaccia said. “I think we’re going to be good; I think we’re going to hit some bumps in the road. You know? And we’re going to have to overcome some successes we have, and we’re going to have to overcome some not-so-much successful plays that we have. It’s just part of the game.”
