Grading Packers’ Transactions During NFL Free Agency
GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers were active in high-stakes NFL free agency for the first time since 2019, with general manager Brian Gutekunst adding the obvious No. 1 safety, Xavier McKinney, and arguably the No. 1 running back, Josh Jacobs. In the process, he let go of two Packers legends, Aaron Jones and David Bakhtiari.
Here is our free agency report card through the first week-and-a-half of free agency.
Returning: LB Eric Wilson
Wilson was a standout and leader on special teams the past two seasons. He could have a bigger role in 2024.
With the transformation to a 4-3 base defense and the release of De’Vondre Campbell, the Packers have gone from having Quay Walker and Campbell as the starters and Isaiah McDuffie and Wilson as backups to having Walker, McDuffie and, perhaps, Wilson as starters. Even if the Packers use a premium draft pick to add a starting linebacker, Wilson might be the next man up.
Injuries forced him to play 121 snaps on defense last year. With 20 tackles, he led the linebacker corps in snaps per tackle. On special teams, he led the team with 11 tackles and made a brilliant fumble recovery in the playoff loss to San Francisco.
While Wilson will turn 30 on Sept. 26, this was a no-brainer re-signing.
Grade: A.
Lost: OT Yosh Nijman
Good offensive tackles don’t grow on trees. No matter what happened last year, Nijman, who signed a two-year deal with the Panthers, is a good offensive tackle. The Packers wouldn’t have won 13 games in 2021 and stayed afloat in 2022 without Nijman capably stepping in for David Bakhtiari. He was No. 5 among this year’s free agents, according to NFL.com’s rankings.
The Packers were going to draft an offensive tackle, anyway. But now, it’s become a dire need. If the Packers had to line up today, they’d be fine with Rasheed Walker and Zach Tom. They’d be up a creek without one of them, however. The next man up is Luke Tenuta. He played seven garbage-time snaps on offense in 2022 and spent 2023 on injured reserve. Or, maybe the next man up would be Caleb Jones, who was inactive for every game in 2023.
The pressure is on GM Brian Gutekunst to draft a tackle capable of playing on Sept. 1. That might require a first-round pick.
Grade: D.
Returning: CB Robert Rochell
The Packers bolstered their cornerback competition by bringing back Rochell. The Packers grabbed him off Carolina’s practice squad at midseason, and his only impact came on special teams.
However, Rochell has good size and great athleticism. As a fourth-round pick in 2021, he started five games for a Rams team that finished 12-5. So, it’s definitely worth getting another look and seeing how he fits in the new defensive scheme.
Grade: B.
Returning: RB AJ Dillon
Was AJ Dillon a disappointment last season? Yes. With Aaron Jones unable to stay in the lineup for the first three months of the season, Dillon was unable to carry the load. The offense didn’t find its stride until Jones was healthy and Dillon was limited or sidelined by injuries.
Nonetheless, this was a really good signing because he’s a proven player with a minimal cap charge.
We’ve used this stat a few times but it’s worth repeating. Pro Football Reference’s “Success Rate” matches Green Bay’s win/loss grading. Over the past three seasons, Dillon ranks No. 1 among 50 running backs with at least 275 carries. Even last year, he was 10th.
Dillon is big and powerful. If he hasn’t become a freight train running through defenders by now, it’s probably not going to happen. Of 49 running backs with 100-plus carries, it is almost beyond belief that Dillon ranked 47th in missed-tackle percentage and 38th in yards after contact per carry.
On the other hand, 47 running backs were targeted at least 25 times in the passing game. Dillon ranked third in yards after the catch per catch and fourth in turning those catches into first downs. He’s stout in pass protection and didn’t fumble.
With Josh Jacobs and Dillon, the Packers are set at the top of the depth chart. Presumably, GM Brian Gutekunst will try to find a change-of-pace runner in the draft. However, there’s no longer pressure to use one of his four Day 2 picks to get one.
Grade: A.
Returning: LB Kristian Welch
When Welch joined the Packers, it was a great story of a local player getting to play for his favorite team. Turns out he was a pretty good player on special teams, too. Chances are, Welch isn’t going to be part of the solution at linebacker, but he’ll have a key role on a unit that must perform better in 2024.
Grade: B.
Returning: CB Keisean Nixon
After making some big-splash moves on Monday, general manager Brian Gutekunst looked toward his own roster and locked up his best free agent on Tuesday.
The Packers signed Nixon on a one-year deal in 2022. They liked what they saw from him as a returner with some upside on defense, so they gave him another one-year deal in 2023. They liked what they saw from him in both phases, so the new contract is for three years and up to $19.2 million.
That type of contract would indicate the Packers would like Nixon to man the slot again in 2024. He was OK in that role in 2023. Other than Colts star Kenny Moore, Nixon was probably the best nickel defender in free agency. But is he a $6 million per year player?
Last year, 32 defensive backs played at least 200 coverage snaps from the slot. Nixon ranked 16th in passer rating, 22nd in yards per snap and 31st in yards allowed, according to Pro Football Focus.
In three years with the Raiders to start his career, Nixon played 273 defensive snaps. He played 290 in 2022 and 808 in 2023. The Packers are banking on him to take another step as a defender. Is he capable of doing it? That ultimately will determine the value of this signing.
Grade: B.
Returning: CB Corey Ballentine
This was a low-key solid move by the Packers.
Between November 2020 and November 2022, Ballentine spent time with four teams and played zero defensive snaps. Not much was expected in 2023, either. He failed to make the opening roster and landed on the practice squad.
But Eric Stokes and Jaire Alexander couldn’t stay healthy and Rasul Douglas was traded to Buffalo. So, the Packers really had nowhere to turn but Ballentine. After going more than three calendar years without starting a game, he started a career-high six.
They wouldn’t have made the playoffs without him. Of Green Bay’s corners, he finished first in passer rating allowed and forced incompletions and second in completion percentage, according to PFF. For a low-budget signing, this is good business.
Grade: A.
Lost: S Jonathan Owens
There were no big splashes in free agency last year. The Packers let Adrian Amos sign with the Jets and inked Owens to a minimum contract after he started every game and recorded 125 tackles for Houston in 2022.
Owens opened the season as a backup but replaced an injured Rudy Ford in the lineup and never left. He started the final 11 games of the regular season and was fifth on the team with 74 tackles. He had zero interceptions, three pass deflections, one forced fumble and a fumble-recovery touchdown at Detroit.
The Packers need to do better than Darnell Savage and Owens as their starting tandem. Having replaced Savage with Xavier McKinney, now they’ll have to replace Owens, who agreed to a two-year, $4.5 million contract with the rival Bears. Will that be another veteran or a top draft pick? And who will provide the depth?
Grade: C-plus.
Added: S Xavier McKinney
Safety is not considered a premium position in the NFL. That’s evident in how they’re paid and where they’re drafted. However, the Packers were desperate to upgrade a position that is a critical part of new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley’s scheme. So, they signed one of the best free agents, regardless of position.
The four-year, $68 million contract works out to $17 million per season, which is fourth-highest at the position. Maybe not coincidentally, McKinney’s agent, David Mulugheta, also represents Jordan Love.
Beyond the financials, McKinney can play deep, in the box and in the slot. He’s immediately the Packers’ best safety since Nick Collins.
Serving as the linebackers coach with the Dolphins, former Packers defensive coordinator Joe Barry must be wondering “Why now?” after slogging through last season with Darnell Savage, Jonathan Owens and Rudy Ford. He’ll say it again when Gutekunst makes another splash in the draft.
Grade: A.
Added: RB Josh Jacobs
Not only did the Packers sign the best safety, they signed arguably the best running back. The four-year, $48 million deal averages $12 million per season, sixth-most at the position.
The 220-pounder has the ideal skill-set for a workhorse back tasked with carrying the load at Lambeau Field in December and January. Jacobs led the NFL in rushing in 2022. His numbers paled in comparison to 2023, though the all-around dysfunction surrounding the Raiders under ousted coach Josh McDaniels played a role.
Jacobs is not the explosive threat that Jones is – that player presumably will come in the draft – but he is a powerful runner and, like Jones, an excellent receiver. That he’s about 3 3/4 years younger is an obvious factor, too.
Grade: B.
Released: RB Aaron Jones
After the season, Gutekunst called Jones the “heartbeat” of the team. It was the perfect description for a face-of-the-franchise type of player. Jordan Love was great down the stretch, but the Packers might not have reached the playoffs, let alone advanced to the divisional round, without Jones delivering the best stretch of football of his career. He was No. 1 among running backs in success rate in 2023; he’s No. 7 among running backs in NFL history in yards per carry.
That said, not only did Jones miss six games in 2023 but he played less than one-third of the snaps. Running backs don’t get better with age. They get more fragile. A durable player over the previous four seasons, was Father Time finally catching up to Jones?
That’s the bet the Packers are making. Because, comparing Jacobs to Jones in a vacuum, the Packers did not get better. It’s unfortunate a compromise couldn’t be found, because a Jones-Jacobs backfield would have been elite. Instead, the Packers will swallow about $12.4 million of dead money in exchange for $5.2 million in cap savings. And they’ll get to see Jones in a Vikings uniform.
Grade: D-plus.
Released: LT David Bakhtiari
This was the most predictable transaction in the history of transactions. Releasing him created almost $21 million of cap space.
Bakhtiari signed a four-year, $92 million contract in November 2020. Less than two months later, on New Year’s Eve, he suffered a torn ACL at practice. His career was never the same. It wound up being perhaps the worst contract in Packers history, not that anyone needs to get blamed other than the Injury Gods.
Bakhtiari played in one game in 2021, 11 games in 2022 and the opener in 2023. He has no intention of retiring, a source said, but the Packers literally couldn’t afford to wait to see if the latest surgeries could get his Hall of Fame-caliber career back on track.
“We want to thank David for an exceptional 11 seasons in Green Bay,” Gutekunst said in a statement. “From the moment he arrived, David established himself as one of the premier tackles of his generation and one of the best linemen in the history of the Packers.”
Grade: A.
Lost: RG Jon Runyan
With each game that he was forced to split snaps with Sean Rhyan, Runyan’s exit from Green Bay became more and more obvious. On Monday, he agreed to a three-year deal worth $30 million with the Giants, where he’ll be an instant starter.
We’ll see if Rhyan is an upgrade over Runyan but, with a $1.38 million cap charge, he’ll provide a lot more bang for the buck.
Grade: A.
Lost: S Darnell Savage
A 2019 first-round pick and All-Rookie performer, Savage agreed to a three-year deal worth $21 million with the Jacksonville Jaguars. In 10 games last year, he broke up one pass and missed 12 tackles. He had a pick-six against Dallas in the playoffs but dropped an interception, gave up a touchdown catch and missed a tackle on a touchdown run against San Francisco. He was consistently one of the worst tacklers in the league among safeties. McKinney had as many interception in 2023 (three) as Savage the last three years but 17 fewer missed tackles.
Maybe a change of scenery will be just the ticket for a talented player.
Grade: A.
Returning: TE Tyler Davis
With the 2023 rookie trio of Luke Musgrave, Tucker Kraft and Ben Sims, there will be a limited path to offensive snaps for Davis. But he’ll be an asset on special teams, so long as he bounces back from a torn ACL sustained in the preseason.
Grade: C.
