Final Countdown: Packers, Bears and Adams’ Hands-On Pursuit of Greatness
GREEN BAY, Wis. – With 109 receptions and 17 touchdowns, Davante Adams is having one of the great seasons in Green Bay Packers history.
Adams enters Sunday’s regular-season finale at the Chicago Bears nipping at the heels of Sterling Sharpe’s franchise records for receptions (112) and touchdowns (18). Coming off his second season of 997 receiving yards, Adams is third in the league in catches, fourth in receiving yards and first in receiving touchdowns despite missing two full games early in the season.
Three other numbers jump off the page.
First, it’s YAC. According to the official league stats, Adams is averaging 5.38 yards after the catch. That’s up sharply over last year’s 4.67
“I feel like I look at the game a lot more critically than what others do or even that I did earlier in my career,” Adams said on Wednesday. “I blame myself and only myself last year for getting 997 because I can look at the film and show you at least five or six plays where there were 2 or 3 more yards out there that I didn’t get. I think being honest with myself watching the film and saying, ‘Could you have gotten more? Did you get tackled or did you make them tackle you?’”
Second, it’s catch percentage. He’s caught 76.8 percent of targeted passes, according to Sports Info Solutions. Among all receivers targeted more than 70 times, that’s the fourth-best rate in the NFL. His previous career high was 66.1 percent. So, while it’s true quarterback Aaron Rodgers targets Adams frequently – his 34.5 percent target share makes him the only player at 30-plus percent – the passing game has been efficient.
Third, it’s the absence of dropped passes. Pro Football Focus has given Adams only one drop. His drop rate of 0.92 percent is third in the NFL among the 55 receivers with more than 70 targets.
“I feel like I’ve caught the ball really well this year,” Adams said. “That’s something that I wanted to (work on). All quarantine, there’s not a whole lot going on other than to be able to work out and getting in and working on your game. I’ve got a JUGS at home, make sure I catch 100 balls a day at least and just come ready to go.”
The JUGS work has been hugely important. Adams has 9-inch hands, which rank in the 20th percentile historically. By comparison, Larry Fitzgerald (first with a 0.00 percent drop rate) has 10.5-inch hands (97th percentile) and DeAndre Hopkins (second with a 0.90 percent) has 10-inch hands (86th percentile). Having smallish hands no doubt has played a role in Adams’ inconsistent hands. According to PFF, he had nine drops last year and a seven-drop average for his career.
“Some guys are naturally a little bit better than others, but it’s something you can work at. Jerry Rice had issues when he was young in his career, and what did he do? He worked at it and caught I think he said 100 balls every day for the rest of his career. You’ve got to get that muscle memory in and train your eyes and train your hands and different catch angles. You can never catch enough footballs. It’s definitely the truth of it.”
Small and Mighty
On Nov. 9, 1958, the Bears beat the visiting Packers 24-10. It was the same old, same old, with Chicago beating its hapless neighbors to the north for the 21st time in the last 26 matchups to take an overwhelming 48-25-6 lead in the series.
Oh, how times have changed and, oh, how quarterbacks have made it happen. After the Bears extended their edge to 81-58-6 by beating Brett Favre in his first start vs. Chicago on Oct. 25, 1992, the Packers have posted an overwhelming 42-14 record against the Bears. They will take a 100-95-6 edge with them for the rematch.
“Any time you’re playing Chicago,” Rodgers said, “there’s always that little extra that’s built in in the fabric of the organizations from the history of playing so many damned games against each other and the mutual feelings that both fan bases have for each other and the grinding games that we’ve had over the years.”
Rodgers’ regular-season record against Chicago is 19-5. One of those losses came when he sustained a broken collarbone early in the 2013 game at Lambeau Field. He’s 11-0 against the Bears when he posts a 100-plus passer rating. That includes his 132.3 when the Packers thumped the Bears in November.
“I’m never going to say it’s just another game. This is big Chicago against little Green Bay,” said Rodgers, who has 30 touchdowns vs. two interceptions in his last dozen games against the Bears. “I’ve always enjoyed the rivalry. I have a love and appreciation for the history of this game. I know how important this rivalry is to both fan bases. Couldn’t be any better matchup this week (with) us playing for the No. 1 seed in that stadium where we’ve had success.”
Chasing History
- Rodgers entered the season with the best passer rating in NFL history, a mantle he had held for most of the previous decade. However, with Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes and Houston’s Deshaun Watson having surpassed the NFL’s requisite 1,500 career attempts, they’ve passed Rodgers on the all-time list.
With the book almost closed on the 2020 season, Mahomes is the runaway leader with a 108.7 career rating, Watson is second at 104.3, Rodgers is third at 103.7 and Seattle’s Russell Wilson is fourth at 101.8. That’s the entire list of quarterbacks with a career mark of 100-plus.
Rodgers’ single-season record appears safe. This time, it’s Rodgers who’s the challenger. In 2011, the first of Rodgers’ MVP seasons, his 122.5 rating broke Peyton Manning’s record of 121.1 set in 2004. Entering Sunday, Rodgers leads the league with a 119.4 rating.
What would it take for Rodgers to break his single-season record? Let’s use his Week 12 performance vs. Chicago as a starting point. He went 21-of-29 passing for 211 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions in that game. If he duplicates those numbers, he’d finish the season with a 120.5 rating. If he went 21-of-29 for 300 yards with five touchdowns and zero interceptions, he’d post a 121.8 rating. If Rodgers went 25-of-30 for 341 yards (to get him to 4,500 for the season) with five touchdowns and zero picks, he’d wind up at 122.54. That would nudge aside his 2011 mark of 121.46.
- With 17 touchdown receptions, Adams is tied with Hall of Famers Don Hutson, Elroy Hirsch, Randy Moss and Jerry Rice, among others, for the fifth-most in NFL history. If he scores once against the Bears, he’d tie Mark Clayton and Sharpe for the third-most in NFL history.
What if he catches three touchdown passes again? Only Moss (23 in 2007 with New England) and Rice (22 despite playing in only 12 games due to labor unrest in 1987) have caught 20 touchdown passes in a season. Thirty players in NFL history have scored 20 total touchdowns in a season. Former Packers back Ahman Green scored a franchise-record 20 in 2003.
- Coach Matt LaFleur is just the third coach since the NFL went to a divisional format in 1967 to win 12-plus games and a division title in both of his first two seasons. The others were San Francisco’s George Seifert (1989 and 1990) and Dallas’ Barry Switzer (1994 and 1995). With a win on Sunday, LaFleur and Seifert would be the only coaches with 13-plus wins and a division title in each of his first two seasons.
- Barring an impossibly disastrous game, running back Aaron Jones is set to become one of two players in NFL history to rush for 3,000-plus yards, 35-plus touchdowns and average 5.0-plus yards per carry in their first four seasons in NFL history. As noted in the Packers’ Dope Sheet preview, the other was the legendary Jim Brown. Jones enters Sunday with a four-year total of 3,322 rushing yards, 36 rushing touchdowns and a 5.2 average.
- The Packers have a chance to become the first team to score 200 points in the second quarter of a season. They’ve scored 198 points in second periods of their 15 games, one behind New England’s record of 199 points in 2007.
Down and Out
In the last 50 years, only one team has qualified for the playoffs despite a six-game losing streak. In 2014, Carolina dropped six straight but won their last seven to claim the NFC South with a 7-8-1 record.
The Bears dropped six straight – the fifth loss of that streak was against Green Bay – but have won three straight. With a win, they’d be in with a 9-7 record.
“From the start to the finish, there's no slowing down,” Bears safety Eddie Jackson said. “There's no excuses. It's none of that. It's win or go home. It's been like that for the last, what, four weeks for us? So, we know what's at stake for us. We've got a lot to lose and a lot to gain as well. You've got to go out there and lay it on the line.”
Improving Units
In one corner, it’s Green Bay’s fast-improving defense. Since an upset loss at home to Minnesota on Nov. 1, Green Bay has allowed 20 or fewer points in five of eight games. That includes three of the four games played in December.
In the other corner, it’s Chicago’s vastly improved offense. In five games since his return from a benching and shoulder injury, Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky has led a unit that’s averaged 33.0 points and 387.4 yards. In the previous seven games directed by Nick Foles, the Bears averaged 16.7 points and 272.1 yards.
“I think everything I've experienced this season has just made me stronger and a better person and player,” Trubisky said. “Just what I've had to deal with and everything we've had to overcome as a team, to just see where we're at now, I think it gives you confidence going into it.”
Starting with his return to the lineup against Green Bay in Week 12, Trubisky has completed 68.0 percent of his passes, averaged almost 250 passing yards, and threw 10 touchdowns vs. four interceptions for a 99.3 rating the past five weeks.
“They look very confident,” Packers defensive coordinator Mike Pettine said. “They’re moving up and down the field, they're scoring points. You can see they have a good sense of who they are. They're running the ball very effectively and, as we know in the National Football League, you have to be able to run the football somewhat. It's not like that's got to be your go-to thing, but you have to be solid in the run game because there's so much play action in the league. If you're not running the ball well, then that is much less effective. They're quarterback, when we played him, essentially he had not played for seven weeks or so. We certainly caught him at the right time where he's just coming right back in.”
In six career starts against the Packers, Trubisky is 1-5 with seven touchdowns, five interceptions and a 79.0 rating.
Countdown to Kickoff
Five Days: Five Keys to the Game
Four Days: Four Views from Inside Bears
Three Days: Three Reasons to Worry
How Will Packers Adapt Without Bakhtiari?
Can Damon Harrison Make Howard Green-Style Impact?
Rodgers-LaFleur Partnership Flourishes
Adams’ Legendary Season Continues with Woodson-Like Dominance
