Packers Free Agents Stay or Go: Justin Hollins
GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers have 14 players who are scheduled to be unrestricted free agents this offseason. That list includes backup outside linebacker Justin Hollins.
Going in alphabetical order, our “Stay or Go” series will look at each of those players in advance of the official start of free agency on March 15. Why should the Packers re-sign Hollins? Why should they let him go? Is there a replacement on the roster? Could they get a compensatory draft pick in exchange?
Packers Should Re-Sign Justin Hollins
Following Rashan Gary’s torn ACL last season, the Packers claimed Justin Hollins off waivers from the Rams. Of course he didn’t replace Gary’s production, but it was a solid pickup by general manager Brian Gutekunst. Hollins had one sack and three quarterback hits in 10 games (five starts) for the Rams but 2.5 sacks and four quarterback hits in six games (zero starts) for Green Bay.
According to Pro Football Focus, 111 edge defenders had at least Hollins’ total of 34 pass-rushing opportunities from Week 12 (Hollins’ debut) through the end of the season. Among that group, Hollins ranked 22nd in PFF’s pass-rushing productivity, which measures sacks, hits and hurries per pass-rushing snap. Micah Parson was 27th, Matthew Judon was 29th and Myles Garrett was 32nd. He tied for 62nd in pass-rush win rate, which isn’t great but was ahead of top-10 rookies Travon Walker (71st) and Kayvon Thibodeaux (68th).
Over those final six games, Hollins ranked ahead of Preston Smith and Kingsley Enagbare in both categories. He played pretty good run defense, too; his average tackle vs. the run came 1.3 yards downfield – best on the unit.
Packers Should Let Hollins Sign Elsewhere
A fifth-round pick in 2019, Hollins has only 9.5 sacks in 55 games with three teams. With so-so production and little value on special teams (just eight snaps in six games), is he going to be worth the $1.08 minimum salary that goes to a fifth-year player?
Who Would Replace Hollins?
One of Green Bay’s biggest problems last season was its outside linebacker depth, which was exposed following Gary’s injury. Smith and Enagbare will return, but there’s little to like beyond those two. In Year 3, Jonathan Garvin somehow didn’t make a single solo tackle. LaDarius Hamilton didn’t inspire much confidence in 24 snaps from his three practice-squad elevations.
Presumably, the Packers will look to the draft, perhaps with a premium draft pick. Theoretically, the Packers could wait until after the draft to see if Hollins (or another veteran) is needed.
Could the Packers Gain a Compensatory Draft Pick for Hollins?
Compensatory draft picks are handed out for a variety of factors, though average salary is the primary component. It’s hard to imagine Hollins getting a big enough contract to even qualify for a seventh-rounder. But the same could have been said last offseason for Oren Burks.
The Verdict on Justin Hollins
Gary’s ACL and the state of the depth chart weigh in Hollins’ favor. Even if Gary is ready for Week 1 (or shortly thereafter), he’s not going to be a 45-snaps-per game player from the get-go. Gary is just so valuable that the team figures to be incredibly cautious in his comeback.
Look at this potential depth chart: Gary, Smith, Enagbare and early draft pick. Is that enough? Or is there room for Hollins as a fifth man in the rotation, at least as Gary is reintegrated and the rookie gets his feet wet?
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