Packers Missed Tackles: Xavier McKinney vs. Darnell Savage
GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers led the San Francisco 49ers 13-7 midway through the third quarter of their divisional playoff game. On first down from Green Bay’s 39, Christian McCaffrey took a middle toss and found a hole to the right. Waiting at about the 33 was safety Darnell Savage, with a chance to limit the damage.
Instead, McCaffrey made a subtle cut to the left, Savage whiffed on the tackle and the 49ers were in front 14-13.
It was the least surprising result imaginable. McCaffrey in 2023 led the NFL in forced missed tackles. Savage, as had been the case throughout his five seasons in the NFL, ranked among the dubious NFL leaders in missed tackles.
For a safety, interceptions make highlight reels – and lead to big contracts – but the ability to tackle is just as important. Had Savage made the play on McCaffrey, the 49ers would have had a second down from near the 30. Maybe the Packers would have forced a field goal. Or created a takeaway. Instead, they were losing.
From that perspective, the Packers made an enormous upgrade to their defense by signing Xavier McKinney and letting Savage sign the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Yes, McKinney is a playmaker. He had five interceptions in 2021 and three more in 2023. But he’s also one of the best tacklers in the business.
In 2023, according to Pro Football Focus, McKinney in 17 games and 1,128 defensive snaps missed seven tackles. His missed-tackle rate of 5.7 percent was the fourth-best out of 74 safeties who played at least 500 defensive snaps. Savage in 10 games and 558 defensive snaps missed 12 tackles. His missed-tackle rate of 18.5 percent ranked 69th.
“I think it’s just how I prepare,” McKinney told reporters at Lambeau Field last week. “I practice hard. When you practice hard, you usually play pretty hard. I critique myself a whole bunch. I get better at the small things. I try to perfect my craft. That’s always how I’ve been.”
The numbers support the “always” part of that statement.
Savage was a first-round pick by Green Bay in 2019. McKinney was a second-round pick in 2020. Here are the season-by-season comparisons, using PFF’s missed-tackle numbers and the official NFL tackle stats.
2020
McKinney: 24 tackles, 1 missed tackle, 24.0 tackles per miss.
Savage: 75 tackles, 14 missed tackles, 5.4 tackles per miss.
2021
McKinney: 93 tackles, 9 missed tackles, 10.3 tackles per miss.
Savage: 63 tackles, 11 missed tackles, 5.7 tackles per miss.
2022
McKinney: 44 tackles, 4 missed tackles, 11.0 tackles per miss.
Savage: 57 tackles, 12 missed tackles, 4.8 tackles per miss.
2023
McKinney: 116 tackles, 7 missed tackles, 16.6 tackles per miss.
Savage: 50 tackles, 12 missed tackles, 4.2 tackles per miss.
Last Four Seasons
McKinney: 277 tackles, 21 missed tackles, 13.2 tackles per miss.
Savage: 245 tackles, 49 missed tackles, 5.0 tackles per miss.
There are a few incredible disparities.
First, even though McKinney missed the first 10 games of his rookie season with a broken foot and eight games in 2022 with a broken hand sustained in an ATV accident, he has 32 more tackles than Savage while playing in nine fewer games.
Second, Savage’s best season from a missed-tackles perspective was 2021, when he had 5.7 tackles per miss. McKinney’s worst season also was 2021, when he had 10.3 tackles per miss.
Third, in 2023, McKinney played twice as many snaps and made more than twice as many tackles but missed almost half as many tackles.
Fourth, if Savage started the 2024 season by completing all 31 tackle attempts and McKinney missed on his first 28 tries, McKinney would still have a better missed-tackle percentage for his career.
As Vince Lombardi famously said about perfection, if you chase it, you’ll catch excellence in the process. That’s McKinney’s mentality when it comes to tackling. He was one of the best in the NFL last season but even that’s not good enough.
“Obviously,” McKinney continued, “I don’t go into it like I’m not trying to miss a certain amount of tackles. I just go out there and play and see where the ball lands. That’s just how it is. I’m going to try to improve that number from what it was last year because I think even that six or seven (missed tackles) is too much for a safety. We’re going to get that number down for sure.”
