Three Reasons Why Packers Will Beat Chargers Today
GREEN BAY, Wis. – Two quarterbacks selected in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft, the Green Bay Packers’ Jordan Love and the Los Angeles Chargers’ Justin Herbert, will square off on Sunday at Lambeau Field.
The Packers are 3-6. They have built some momentum on offense, never mind the consistently mediocre results on the scoreboard, but they lost their momentum on defense.
Here are the weekly reasons why the Packers will earn a big victory.
1. Jordan Love Is Charging
It’s no secret that this season is about making progress so that first-year starting quarterback Jordan Love and his abundance of young weapons can hit the ground running in 2024.
While it’s not reflected on the scoreboard, there has been progress. Love completed a career-high 76.9 percent of his passes in the victory over the Rams. He followed that with a career-high 289 passing yards in last week’s loss to the Steelers.
While Love is back to the bottom in completion percentage and ranks 23rd in yards per attempt, he averaged 8.77 yards per pass vs. the Rams and 7.23 vs. the Steelers, his second- and third-best games this year.
“It’s don’t hesitate going through my reads, trust what I’m seeing out there, being confident in it and just let the ball fly. Don’t have any hesitation,” Love said. “That’s definitely something that I’ve been trying to focus on is trusting my reads, trusting my feet. When it’s time to let the ball come out, just trust it and be confident in it. Not playing (like) trying not to make mistakes. Just going out there and taking advantage of what the defense is doing and being confident.”
Can Love keep rolling this week against a Chargers pass defense that ranks 31st in passing yards per game and 30th in yards per passing play? The key will be avoiding turnovers, which Love has struggled to do at times. The Chargers have forced 10 turnovers in their four wins, winning the turnover battle in each.
“They have a lot of different receivers, guys who are fast,” Chargers coach Brandon Staley said this week. “It's a young group, but guys that have all different skill-sets. Jordan Love is a really athletic player. He makes a lot of big plays. This is his first year starting, but we have a lot of respect for him. The tape says that he can make a lot of plays. He has done that against a lot of quality defenses. We're going to have to be ready to play.”
2. One-Man Monster
This week, Packers coach Matt LaFleur called Chargers receiver Keenan Allen a “monster.”
From a route-running perspective, Allen, who leads the NFL with 73 receptions, and former Packers star Davante Adams are in a league of their own.
“He’s got great size, great range,” LaFleur said. “I feel like he’s one of the best against press coverage in the league. He’s got unbelievable release ability and short-space quickness. He’s rangy. He can make contested catches. There’s nothing he can’t do. There’s a lot of elements to his game that remind me of Davante, and I think he’s a guy that is one of the more elite players in the league at that position.”
That’s not the only similarity between Allen and Adams.
For his final couple years in Green Bay, Adams was the team’s passing attack because there wasn’t a reliable No. 2 option. That’s the case for Allen this year. With Mike Williams and Josh Palmer on injured reserve (and tight end Gerald Everett out this week), Allen seemingly is the first, second and third option.
It's the injuries that put this note in the “Optimism” column. Yes, Justin Herbert is a great quarterback. Allen is a great receiver. But who else is there?
With Palmer (23 catches), Everett (21) and Williams (19) out, the next-leading receivers are running back Austin Ekeler (22), rookie receiver Quentin Johnston (18), tight end Donald Parham (15) and rookie receiver Derius Davis (10). That’s 65 catches – still less than Allen.
“It’s insane,” defensive coordinator Joe Barry said. “That’s the thing that’s crazy is they target him, they go to him. You know the ball’s going to him and he’s one of those guys that finds a way to get open and Justin does a great job of getting the ball to him.”
If Jaire Alexander can help at least keep Allen in check, the Packers should be in a strong position.
3. Rolling Rookies
The Packers have to be thrilled with their second-round picks, tight end Luke Musgrave and receiver Jayden Reed. They’ve gotten better and better with each week.
Among all rookie tight ends, Musgrave is third with 29 catches, 313 yards and one touchdown. His 64 yards (on two catches) vs. the Steelers was the best of his career. According to PFF, Musgrave has caught four passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield; that’s as many as the rest of the rookie tight end class combined.
Among all rookie receivers, Reed is ninth with 28 catches, seventh with 417 yards and third with four touchdowns. Against Pittsburgh, he caught all five targets for 84 yards and one touchdown. Among receivers, he is tied for the rookie lead with six catches of passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield.
“He’s a talented guy,” LaFleur said. “It means a lot to him and I just really love his mentality. I think he’s wired the right way mentally, in terms of just how he attacks it. Not that it’s always going to perfect but, when he does make a mistake, there’s no flinch to him. He just keeps it moving and he doesn’t get rattled. He doesn’t allow one play to affect the next and we expect him to continue to grow and develop.
“He’s far from a finished product, but I think that he’s got a very bright future.”
There should be opportunity against a soft Chargers defense.
Against Detroit last week, slot receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown caught 8-of-9 targets for 156 yards and one touchdown and the tight ends combined for 6-of-8 targets for 63 yards and another touchdown. Against the Chiefs, tight end Travis Kelce caught 12-of-13 targets for 179 yards and one touchdown.
No, Reed isn’t St. Brown. Musgrave isn’t Kelce. But the Chargers have been vulnerable at both spots.
Tight ends against the Chargers have caught 59 passes for 615 yards – fourth- and third-most, respectively. Their primary slot defender, Ja’Sir Taylor, has allowed the third-most slot yards, according to PFF.
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