Three Reasons Why Packers Will Lose to Chargers Today
GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers beat the Rams at Lambeau Field two weeks ago. On Sunday, they’ll look to complete the Los Angeles sweep. The challenge will be much bigger facing Chargers star Justin Herbert rather than Rams backup Brett Rypien.
In fact, that’s one of the weekly Three Reasons to Worry.
1. Justin Herbert’s Not Brett Rypien
Green Bay’s pass defense has been solid all season. It ranks seventh in 20-yard passes allowed, eighth in yards per attempt and 12th in opponent passer rating.
However, they haven’t faced anyone like Herbert. Of the 13 quarterbacks with a passer rating of 92-plus, the Packers have gone up against only three (Denver’s Russell Wilson, Minnesota’s Kirk Cousins and Detroit’s Jared Goff). Herbert enters Sunday ranked eighth in passer rating, ninth in yards and fifth in touchdowns.
“Yeah, he’s the real deal. There’s not a throw he can’t make,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said. “He does a great job protecting the ball, makes great decisions, very decisive with throwing into tight windows.”
With one of the strongest arms in the NFL, Herbert is tied for sixth with 16 completions of passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield, according to Pro Football Focus.
Herbert was the sixth pick of the 2020 NFL Draft, taken 20 spots ahead of Green Bay’s Jordan Love. He ranks second all-time in passing yards per game. Among quarterbacks through four seasons, Herbert is No. 1 in completions (by 140 and counting), No. 1 in passing yards (passed Peyton Manning last week), No. 2 in fourth-quarter comebacks and No. 3 in touchdown passes.
"I think Lambeau will be really cool,” he told reporters this week. “I think that's always been on there. I'm just hoping for a nice weather day. Obviously, you have to be prepared for anything, but there's just something about Lambeau and the history behind that and the teams that they've had. We have a ton of respect for them and that's definitely one of those places that would be up there.”
Chargers QB Justin Herbert
Photo by Robert Deutsch/USA Today Sports Images
2. Red Zones
How did the Packers outgain the Steelers by 75 yards and lose last week? Easy. Green Bay was 1-of-5 in the red zone while Pittsburgh was 2-of-3.
Offensively, the Packers are 27th in the red zone with a touchdown rate of 46.9 percent; they’re just 3-of-13 the last three games. Defensively, the Chargers are 14th (52.9 percent).
What’s gone wrong after a strong start? LaFleur pinpointed a third-quarter possession at Pittsburgh in which the Packers settled for a field goal and a 19-17 lead rather than a touchdown and a 23-17 edge.
“We have a second-and-4, we hand the ball off [to Aaron Jones], we lose a yard and now you’re in third-and-5,” LaFleur said. “You have to get at least 2 yards in that situation to set up a third-down-and-2 or whatever it may be because we all know third downs are tough in general. But, especially in the red zone, the further you get back, obviously, the harder it’s going to be to convert.
“So, we’ve got to be more efficient running the football is what I would tell you and then, when we do throw it, you’ve got to find a way to get completions just to give yourself a chance.”
Oddly, while Green Bay has one of the worst red-zone offenses in the NFL, it has the best goal-to-go attack. When the Packers reach first-and-goal, their touchdown rate soars to 91.7 percent.
Said Chargers defensive coordinator Derrick Ansley: “We pride ourselves on being tight down there and making guys throw it in, not run it in. I think that we've done a good job in some spots.”
The challenge will be just as big on the other side of the ball. The Chargers are second in the red zone with a touchdown rate of 72.4 percent. They’re 7-for-7 the last three games. Green Bay’s red-zone defense has kept it in more than a few games this year. It ranks 10th at 48.3 percent.
In the red zone, Herbert is fourth with 13 touchdowns while Love is next-to-last with a 67.5 passer rating.
3. Rookie Returner
What worries Packers special teams coordinator Rich Bisaccia?
“First and foremost, their punt return game,” he replied.
Rookie fourth-round pick Derius Davis, who had five punt-return touchdowns at TCU, leads the NFL with a 16.6-yard average. There have been four punt-return touchdowns in the league this year, including by New Orleans’ Rasheed Shaheed against Green Bay in Week 3. Davis has the longest, an 87-yarder against the Jets a couple weeks ago.
“He’s got tremendous speed,” Bisaccia said. “He was really good coming out of college. He had a touchdown in preseason and now he’s had a touchdown in the regular season. He’s fearless back there. He makes good decisions and so, right now, that’s the biggest challenge.”
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