Playoff Matchups: Packers vs. Christian McCaffrey-Led 49ers Rushing Attack
GREEN BAY, Wis. – In 2019, first-year coach Matt LaFleur led the Green Bay Packers to the NFC Championship Game. Standing between them and a trip to the Super Bowl were the San Francisco 49ers.
The Packers were run over. Literally. Raheem Mostert had 220 rushing yards and four touchdowns, including 160 yards and three scores in the first half. San Francisco finished with 285 rushing yards. The domination was so thorough that quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo threw only eight passes.
On Saturday night, the 49ers will host the Packers in an NFC Divisional matchup. To state the obvious, the Packers are going to have to play infinitely better run defense this time.
Here’s a look at how Green Bay’s run defense will match up against the Christian McCaffrey-led 49ers ground attack.
49ers Rush Offense
The 49ers took a siesta for Week 18. Then, they enjoyed their bye. Who knows what it will mean for quarterback Brock Purdy to not play for a few weeks, but it should mean nothing but great things for running back Christian McCaffrey.
The 27-year-old ran away with the NFL rushing title, his 1,459 rushing yards beating runner-up Derrick Henry by almost 300 yards. Heck, it was almost 200 yards more than Green Bay’s Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon combined. He joined O.J. Simpson, Emmitt Smith and Walter Payton as the only wire-to-wire NFL rushing champions since the 1970 merger.
To start the season, McCaffrey had games of 152, 116 and 106 yards in his first four games. Starting with Week 5 against Dallas through Week 8 against Cincinnati, McCaffrey averaged less than 50 rushing yards per game. After the bye, he had six games of more than 90 yards in a span of seven weeks. With a lengthy break, McCaffrey should be at 100 percent.
Grant Cohn of SI.com’s All 49ers: First half of the year, the Niners gave him like 24-25 touches a game. I think they were intent on getting him that Offensive Player of the Year award or maybe MVP. Or, maybe, McCaffrey refused to come off the field. He’s very forceful, and certain players on the Niners sort of get to call their shots. Then he got worn down a little bit.
McCaffrey didn’t make it through Week 6 against the Browns. The Niners got beat up as a team in that game, with Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams missing a couple games. And without Williams on the field, the Niners really don’t do anything well, despite all that talent on offense. Without that left tackle, there’s nowhere they can really get movement at the point of attack in the run game, and they don’t have their blindside protector.
So even a great running back like McCaffrey suffered big time because of it. Plus, he was a little bit injured. They had a bye week, Trent Williams came back, McCaffrey’s a little bit more rested and he’s great again. So, yeah, he’s a big problem for Green Bay this weekend.
Packers Rush Defense
Of course McCaffrey’s a problem for the Packers because most running backs are problems for the Packers. Green Bay hasn’t had a stout run defense since our leading presidential candidates were teenagers.
In fact, during the LaFleur era, the Packers are allowing an NFL-worst 4.66 yards per carry. This season, the Packers ranked 28th against the run (128.3 yards per game) and 23rd in yards allowed per carry (4.42).
However, during Green Bay’s four-game winning streak, it allowed 3.8 per carry at Carolina, 4.2 at Minnesota and 3.0 vs. Chicago. The Cowboys rushed for an inconsequential 4.9 per carry last week, but standout running back Tony Pollard was limited to 3.7.
Chuba Hubbard, Alexander Mattison, Khalil Herbert and Pollard are quality running backs, though none of them will be joining McCaffrey in the Hall of Fame. McCaffrey ranked second among running backs with 5.36 yards per carry. According to Pro Football Focus, he was tied for second with 60 missed tackles forced, was second with 929 yards after contact and fifth with 3.42 yards after contact per attempt.
Tackling, obviously, will be important. By Pro Football Focus’ numbers, Quay Walker is among the best linebackers in the NFL; Devonte Wyatt is the worst among defensive linemen.
The 49ers’ offensive line, other than Williams, isn’t great, though tight end George Kittle and fullback Kyle Juszczyk will tip the scales in their favor. If the Packers are going to win this game, it will be up to the defensive front – the linemen, outside linebackers and inside linebackers – to play with physicality and discipline.
Finally, here’s an interesting note from Inside Edge: McCaffrey ranks sixth in the NFL with a 4.5-yard average on third-and-short. The Packers are third-worst with 4.5 yards allowed per carry on third-and-short.
