AJ Dillon Signs Unusual One-Year Contract With Packers
GREEN BAY, Wis. – Running back AJ Dillon signed a one-year deal to return to the Green Bay Packers.
News of the re-signing broke on Thursday night, though it was pending a physical; Dillon missed the last three games of the season with a stinger.
It became official on Friday.
Just like nobody expected a week ago, Aaron Jones was released and is playing with the Minnesota Vikings and Dillon returned to the team that drafted him in the second round in 2020.
With that, the Packers will have their tandem for 2024. Instead of Lightning and Thunder of Jones and Dillon, it will be Thunder and Thunder with Josh Jacobs and Dillon.
“You have to have two,” general manager Brian Gutekunst said at the Scouting Combine. “AJ’s done a great job for us the past four years and we’d love to have him back. We’ll see where that goes, but we’re going to have to address that one way or another.”
While Dillon was unable to pick up the slack through Jones’ extended absences last season and finished with a career-worst 3.4-yard average, he’s been a valuable role player the past three seasons.
The best evidence is a Pro Football Reference stat called “Success Rate.” It matches Green Bay’s win/loss grading system. Any run that gains 40 percent of the yards on first down (a 4-yard run on first-and-10, for instance), at least 60 percent of the remaining yards on second down and all the remaining yards on third or fourth down is a “success.”
From 2021 through 2023, 50 running backs had at least 275 carries. Dillon’s success rate of 55.9 percent was No. 1 in the NFL. Even in a disappointing 2023, his 50.0 percent success rate ranked 10th out of 41 running backs with at least 110 carries.
Jones was No. 1.
According to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport, the Packers retained Dillon with something called a four-year qualifying contract (which is explained here). It has a base salary up to $1.45 million more than the league minimum, which for a fifth-year player like Dillon is $1.125 million.
So, while he can max at $2.575 million, only that $1.125 million is counted against the cap.
Dillon has proven to be a do-it-all back. While he doesn’t have the explosive acceleration and speed, he can get the tough yards, catch (34-of-37 targets in 2021 and 22-of-28 targets in 2023) and protect the passer. Keeping Dillon to pair with Jacobs will give the Packers a powerful tandem – quite literally – and allow them to use their premium draft picks at other positions.
“AJ’s been a great member of our team,” coach Matt LaFleur said at the end of the season. “You’ve got to have multiple backs in this league. You have to. It’s just the pounding these guys take. I think you could really see his value every year towards the end of the season. Shoot, I’d love to have him back here.”
Following a bout with COVID as a rookie in 2020, Dillon played in 51 consecutive regular-season games until he missed a late-season game with a broken thumb. Later, he missed Week 18 and the two playoff games following a stinger.
“I don’t ever like to miss any time, whether it’s practice or a game, or even the possibility of it,” Dillon said before missing the Tampa Bay game because of the thumb.
“I feel like I’m playing at a level consistency-wise where I’m helping out the team at a high level. So, I’m trying to keep doing that and keep building upon that, because there’s still areas where I’m like, ‘Man, I could’ve done that better.’ Trying to be out there as much as possible, trying to help the team win as much as possible.”
On the other hand, Dillon has fallen well short of expectations. The Packers drafted him in hopes that he’d perhaps become the equivalent of Derrick Henry. He showed one flash as a rookie – against Henry and the Titans, no less – when he carried 21 times for 124 yards and two touchdowns.
That’s the only 100-yard game of his career.
After averaging 5.3 yards per carry in minimal action in 2020 behind Jones and Jamaal Williams, Dillon replaced Williams as the No. 2 back in 2021. He rushed for 803 yards, averaged 4.3 yards per carry, was No. 1 with a 61.0 percent success rate, ranked ninth in the entire in NFL with 9.1 yards after the catch per catch and tallied 1,116 yards from scrimmage.
In 2022, he rushed for 770 yards with a 4.1 average, his success rate was a fifth-ranked 56.5 percent, and he had 976 total yards. He had seven drops after not having any his first two seasons.
In 2023, he rushed for 613 yards with a woeful 3.4 average, his success rate fell further to 50.0 percent, and he tallied 836 total yards. However, had he had enough receptions to qualify, he would have ranked second in the NFL with 10.5 YAC per catch. He had just one drop and had zero fumbles in 200 total touches.
