Receivers in NFL Draft Struggle with Most Basic Skill

The Green Bay Packers enter the 2023 NFL Draft having to add a handful of receivers. It is a group that’s flawed in one essential skill.

Author:
Bill Huber
Updated:
Apr 17, 2023 7:47 AM EDT
Original:
Apr 16, 2023

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers, with just five receivers on their roster and only three who’ve caught a pass in a game, will emerge from the 2023 NFL Draft and undrafted frenzy having added at least four or five receivers.

Who will they be? Lost amid conversations about 40-yard dash times and Relative Athletic Scores is one simple question.

Can they catch?

Yes, it matters if a player can run and jump. But, at the end of the day, nothing matters unless that pass is secured.

The 2023 NFL Draft class of receivers is a bit more butter-fingered than scouts would prefer.

“That’s the story of this draft class. Short and can’t catch,” one scout said.

Using Pro Football Focus’ data, 100 receivers in this draft class were targeted at least 52 times in 2022. The median drop rate was 6.7 percent.

Here are the top 20 receivers from NFL.com’s draft rankings and their drop percentages from PFF.

Jalin Hyatt, Tennessee: 6.9 percent.

Zay Flowers, Boston College: 10.3 percent.

Josh Downs, North Carolina: 3.1 percent.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ohio State: 5.9 percent in 2021.

Quentin Johnston, TCU: 11.8 percent.

Cedric Tillman, Tennessee: 5.1 percent.

Jordan Addison, USC: 3.3 percent, a huge improvement over 9.9 percent during his Biletnikoff Award-winning 2021 at Pittsburgh.

Tyler Scott, Cincinnati: 11.3 percent.

Tank Dell, Houston: 7.7 percent.

Marvin Mims, Oklahoma: 6.9 percent.

Jonathan Mingo, Mississippi: 7.3 percent.

A.T. Perry, Wake Forest: 9.0 percent.

Elijah Higgins, Stanford: 6.3 percent.

Charlie Jones, Purdue: 2.7 percent.

C.J. Johnson, East Carolina: 4.3 percent.

Justin Shorter, Florida: 0.0 percent. (Shorter was one of three players without a drop.)

Tre Tucker, Cincinnati: 10.2 percent.

Kayshon Boutte, LSU: 12.7 percent.

Michael Wilson, Stanford: 12.9 percent.

Rashee Rice SMU: 8.6 percent.

Of those 20 receivers, eight receivers had a better drop rate than the draft class median. Twelve were worse, including six who were significantly worse with drops rates in the double-digits. Not included: Virginia’s Dontayvion Wicks. Wicks, who had a predraft visit with the Packers, had the worst drop rate in the nation – not just the draft class – at 23.1 percent.

Like any skill, catching the ball can be improved through practice. Former Packers star Davante Adams is a perfect example. His drop percentages to start his career were 9.5 in 2014, 16.7 in 2015 and 10.7 in 2016. The last three years, he was 5.7 in 2022, 3.1 in 2021 and 0.9 in 2020.

However, players who drop passes in college come with an instant buyer-beware tag.

“Let me tell you something,” the scout said. “It’s not easier to catch the football in the NFL. The ball is bigger, the quarterbacks throw it harder and the defensive backs are better.”

Gutekunst drafted three receivers in last year’s draft, three receivers in his first draft and seven overall. They’re obviously small sample sizes but it appears Gutekunst took the ability to catch passes to heart last year.

2022

Christian Watson: 8.5 percent in 2021; 12.6 percent for career.

Lost amid Watson’s off-the-charts testing numbers: Enormous 10 1/8-inch hands. So, there was no physical reason why Watson dropped too many passes at North Dakota State. As a rookie, Watson had 22 catches and five drops in his first nine games, then 19 catches and zero drops in his last five games.

Romeo Doubs: 4.8 percent in 2021; 5.8 percent for career.

Doubs had 10-inch hands, which he put to good use at Nevada.

Samori Toure: 4.2 percent in one year at Nebraska.

The seventh-round pick had 9 3/8-inch hands. For reference, the smallest of the Ted Thompson- Gutekunst era was 9 inches.

2021

Amari Rodgers: 7.2 percent for 2020; 5.2 percent for career at Clemson.

2020

None

2019

None

2018

J’Mon Moore: 11.0 percent in 2017 13.2 percent for career.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling: 14.5 percent in 2017; 14.0 percent for career.

Equanimeous St. Brown: 8.3 percent in 2017; 6.1 percent for career.

Moore and Valdes-Scantling, two players who dropped passes in college, dropped passes in the NFL.

Receivers who can catch (and also meet Green Bay’s traditional height and athletic requirements) include Ohio State’s Smith-Njigba, Tennessee’s Tillman, USC’s Addison, Purdue’s Jones and Florida’s Shorter.

Ole Miss’ Mingo and Virginia’s Wicks dropped too many passes but had 10-inch hands. Stanford’s Wilson (9 3/4) and TCU’s Johnston (9 5/8) were larger than 9 1/2 inches.