Three Overreactions From Packers’ Loss to Giants
GREEN BAY, Wis. – Matt LaFleur was an unprecedented 16-0 in December. His ascending Green Bay Packers were on a three-game winning streak that included big-time performances against the Lions and Chiefs.
The offense had found the secret sauce of making big plays but avoiding big mistakes. The defense got stops when it mattered. With the New York Giants going nowhere fast with an undrafted rookie quarterback and statistically one of the worst defenses in the NFL, everything was pointed the Packers’ direction.
Instead, they rolled into the City That Never Sleeps and took a 3-hour nap.
Here are this week’s Three Overreactions.
1. Joe Barry Must Go
No, LaFleur didn’t fire defensive coordinator Joe Barry on the flight back to Green Bay. He’s not going to fire him today, this week or next week.
But a change must be made if this team is going to take the next step in 2024 and rejoin the ranks of contenders.
Barry is a good man. I don’t think he’s the buffoon he’s made out to be by angry fans, some of whom haven’t realized that it’s a lot more difficult to play defense now than when the Packers won Super Bowls in 2010 and 1996.
The Packers are 11th in points allowed this season. They’ve allowed 24 or fewer points in nine consecutive games, tied for the longest current streak in the NFL and the team’s longest since 2010.
That’s winning football, or at least it should be. But where’s that killer instinct? Where’s that “it’s time to win the game” mindset?
It wasn’t to be found with 1:33 on the clock and the Packers trying to protect a 22-21 lead. Closing out that game would have been a tall order for most defenses. That’s just the way it is in the NFL. But Barry played as if the Packers were up by four points rather than one point.
For Tommy DeVito, the undrafted rookie quarterback who perplexed the Packers all night with his escapability, it was easy pickings because the defenders were so far off his pass-catchers.
On second-and-5 from the 30, Saquon Barkley caught the ball with about 5 yards of separation and gained 7. On first down from the 37, just like the previous two plays, Darrius Slayton was given 10 yards of cushion by Carrington Valentine and took advantage for a gain of 9 that pushed the ball near midfield.
On the back-breaker, a 32-yard completion to Wan’Dale Robinson, the defensive backs played closer to the receivers but Robinson roasted Keisean Nixon at the line of scrimmage to position the Giants for the winning field goal.
On the biggest drive of the night and with the game on the line, Barry’s defense made Tommy DeVito look like Tom Brady. Instead of going out and trying to win the game, Barry seemingly was trying not to lose. By giving DeVito soft coverage and a comfortable pocket, the Packers lost.
If that’s the plan and result against an unheralded rookie quarterback in a big moment in a big regular-season game, what on earth is Barry going to do against an elite quarterback with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line?
LaFleur can’t afford to find out.
2. Christian Watson Is Irreplaceable
I don’t think having a “No. 1 receiver” is ultra-important. There’s something to be said about overwhelming the opponent with an abundance of quality receivers and letting the passing game flow organically rather than feeling obligated to force the ball to that top-dog receiver. Green Bay has that potential with Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks and Malik Heath at receiver and Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft at tight end.
Regardless, never, ever underestimate the importance of Watson.
In landmark victories over the Lions and Chiefs, Watson caught 12 passes for 165 yards and three touchdowns. In parallel with that, Jordan Love threw six touchdowns and zero interceptions in those games.
With Watson out with a hamstring injury, Love had a season-low 5.59 yards per attempt. On passes to the receivers, Love was 17-of-29 for 106 yards. Reed, who is having an excellent rookie season, caught 8-of-10 targets for just 27 yards. His 3.4 yards per catch is the fourth-lowest over the last decade by a receiver with at least eight catches.
Watson’s ability to stretch the field isn’t only about him catching deep passes. It’s also about stretching the defense vertically to create room for other players. Against the Giants, Love was 1-of-5 on passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield and 2-of-5 on passes thrown between 10 and 19 yards. With Watson on the field against the Lions and Chiefs, Love was 6-of-10 on deep passes 8-of-14 on the intermediate passes.
The 2023 Packers need Watson on the field. The 2024-and-beyond Packers need Watson to stay on the field. Figuring out how to keep Watson healthy ranks among the biggest offseason priorities.
3. Packers Will Still Reach the Playoffs
Thanks to some good fortune, the Packers remain in the No. 7 hole in the NFC playoff race. With a cushy schedule, they should stay there.
It’s no secret the Packers are a young team. Growing pains were the expectation, regardless of whether they had lost four in a row or won three in a row. So, chalk Monday’s result up to a painful lesson. (Though youth had nothing to do with the disappearing act of the pass rush.)
“I think our team learned a valuable lesson in terms (of), you don’t play your best, it doesn’t matter who you’re playing, where you’re them, when you’re playing, you’re not going to win the game,” LaFleur said.
“We lost the turnover battle. Weren’t good enough in situational ball – third down, red zone. We had plenty of opportunities. Give New York credit. They went out there, they played better than we did tonight. This game’s about execution, and we didn’t execute to the best of our ability.”
Let’s not forget that no team is immune to being upset. Underdogs went 8-7 in Week 14. Underdogs of at least six points went 3-3, including a Monday night sweep by the Giants (six-point underdogs) and Titans (13.5-point underdogs against the Dolphins). In Week 13, underdogs of more than five points also went 3-3.
Expect the Packers to be much sharper against the Buccaneers on Sunday.
