Three Reasons Why Packers Will Beat Bears, Qualify for Playoffs
GREEN BAY, Wis. – If the Green Bay Packers can beat the Chicago Bears on Sunday, they’ll earn a spot in the NFL playoffs that seemed unimaginable at various points this season.
Can they do it? The Packers always beat the Bears, and they will again at Lambeau Field. Here are three reasons why.
1. Jordan Love’s Eyes
The Bears lead the NFL with 22 interceptions. They’ve got more than twice as many interceptions the past six games (16) as the Packers have all season (seven).
“These guys do a really good job of reading your eyes,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said.
However, during the last seven games, Packers quarterback Jordan Love has shown leaps-and-bounds improvement in taking care of the football. During the four-game losing streak that sent the Packers to 2-5, Love threw seven interceptions. During the last seven games, starting with the Week 10 win over the Chargers, he’s thrown only one.
The numbers would suggest Love has done a much better job manipulating defenses with his eyes. Is that what the film shows?
“Absolutely,” LaFleur said. “I’ve said a lot of times: He’s made progress. I think the guys around him have made a lot of progress. But, yeah, he’s done a nice job of understanding when to get off his intended receiver and go to the secondary or third option within the concept and just reading with your feet.
“I think that’s the basis of good quarterback play, is if you hang on people too long or give an extra hitch to a wideout, that’s when you allow the defense to recover and they can make plays on the ball.”
One other thing stands out about Love down the stretch. Over the last seven games, he ranks fifth in completion percentage (68.4) and 11th in yards per attempt (7.4). Over the first nine games, he ranked last in completion percentage (58.7) and 24th in yards per attempt (6.7). What had been an all-or-nothing attack has become one running at peak efficiency.
“I think getting into the game earlier in the season,” he explained, “I would just play the concept out and not really be piecing together some of the looks I’m getting on defense and what the perfect look might be for some of the plays and try to hold and wait for guys to get in windows, instead of taking what the defense is giving me; getting some of those checkdowns, getting those positive plays.
“I think that’s part of that learning curve that I had to get over is understanding what play we like, what coverages we like it against and, if we’re not getting that coverage, just finding those checkdowns and getting those positive plays because it puts us in better positions with third-and-manageable instead of some of those third-and-long situations that we were in earlier in the season.”
2. Full-Strength Receiver Corps
Receiver Christian Watson has missed seven games, including the last four with a hamstring injury. Tight end Luke Musgrave has missed the last six games with an injured kidney. Of the last two games, receivers Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks have played just one half apiece.
It’s possible all four of those players will be available for the must-win game.
“It’s huge,” said Watson, who didn’t practice on Friday. “We’ve been trying to put it together all season long, just finding a rhythm in our receiver room and finding a consistency. We’ve seen guys be able to make plays here and there, but to be able to have all of us go out there, play fast and play free and play together is going to be big for us.”
The revolving door has hardly mattered to Jordan Love. Tucker Kraft has emerged as a legitimate No. 1 tight end in Musgrave’s absence. Bo Melton, who’s now on the 53-man roster, made several big plays as a practice-squad elevation.
Meanwhile, earlier in the week, star Bears cornerback Jaylon Johnson said he’d “100 percent” be ready for Green Bay after suffering a shoulder injury last week. Coach Matt Eberflus said it was “looking positive.”
Instead, Johnson didn’t practice all week and is doubtful. Players who are doubtful almost never play, though the Buccaneers listed defensive Vita Vea as doubtful to face the Packers a few weeks ago but he was upgraded to questionable the day before the game and played.
Johnson, who is set to hit free agency, has been a stud. According to Sports Info Solutions, he’s allowed a 36.8 percent completion rate this season. That’s second-best among starting corners. He has four interceptions and 10 passes defensed; SIS has charged him with only 14 completions.
“We’re trying to get him there,” Eberflus said. “With that caliber of player, we’re doing everything we can to get him to the game.”
Moreover, starting slot Kyler Gordon was added to the injury report on Friday and is questionable.
If Love gets to attack a watered-down Bears secondary with a full-strength group of pass-catchers, look out.
3. Return of Jaire Alexander
This has been a forgettable season for cornerback Jaire Alexander. A second-team All-Pro for the second time in his career last season, Alexander has been All-Disappointment this year.
The highest-paid cornerback in NFL history, Alexander has missed nine games due to back and shoulder injuries. When he has been in the lineup, he hasn’t played to his usual standard. And the whole mess was capped last week by a one-game suspension for the must-win game at the Vikings.
“Yeah, I think it was definitely something to learn from,” Alexander said. “There’s definitely things that I could have improved upon during that week to help with communication. Moving forward, that won’t happen again.”
How will Alexander respond? Will it be the same old Alexander from this season? Or will it be the vintage Alexander from past seasons?
The feeling is Alexander will be locked and loaded after an embarrassing ordeal.
“Ja has been phenomenal this week, he really has,” defensive coordinator Joe Barry said. “It’s still Jaire Alexander. When you get him back in the building and back with the potential of the availability, it’s great to have him here and with us and back in the fold. Ja, he has been really, really great this week. It’s been awesome having him back in the building.”
Back in the building is one thing. Back in lockdown form is another. According to Sports Info Solutions, Alexander has allowed a 66.7 percent completion rate. For his first five seasons, it was just 50.8 percent.
He will face a huge challenge on Sunday against premier Bears receiver D.J. Moore, who has 1,300 receiving yards.
“He’s a dynamic receiver,” Alexander said. “He’s fast, explosive and he’s pretty big and powerful.”
