Keys to the Game: Panthers vs 49ers
Sitting at 1-3 on the season, Carolina's staff is running low on leash. Things aren't getting any easier though as a stout 49ers team is coming to town in Week 5. The 49ers are coming off of an impressive Monday night showing against the defending champion Los Angeles Rams, and appear to be hitting a stride with Jimmy Garoppolo at the helm and a vicious defense.
If the Panthers staff is to gain favor this week and potentially patch up a ship sinking quickly, the team will need to be firing on all cylinders on Sunday. Here's how they can do it:
Play towards variance
The 49ers' defense appears to be the best in the league about a quarter of the way through the season. They have allowed the fewest points, the second-fewest yards through the air, and the second-fewest yards on the ground. They've also compiled the 4th most sacks on their way to decimating opponents. This defense has made the offenses they've played against each week look as bad as the Panthers' offense has looked in general this season.
If there is a saving grace, it is that other than the surprisingly competent Seattle offense, the 49ers have played the Texans, Bears, and Rams, all of which have hosted their own shares of offensive issues even when they weren't facing the 49ers.
Now is this to say that the 49ers defense has only looked good because of the schedule? Definitely not. This is a supremely talented unit led by arguably the best off-ball linebacker in the NFL, Fred Warner. The Panthers have their work cut out for them. If Carolina is going to see success this week, playing to variance found in games with low possession totals is paramount.
When there are fewer possessions in a game, the smaller sample size of action provides potential for a broader range of outcomes. One or two big plays can be the game-deciding difference when there are fewer plays happening as a whole. The near-touchdown underdog Panthers need to lean on their own strong defensive unit and roll the dice so that more big plays can work in their favor.
The 49ers have consistently been one of the run-heaviest teams in the league under head coach Kyler Shanahan. This in and of itself is a win for the Panthers, who have been quite stout against the run since a porous week 1 showing against Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. When teams are running the ball, the clock is running as well. The 49ers will do their part in shortening the game, and the Panthers will need to pull their weight as well.
Now, this is easier said than done against the stout 49ers front seven. If the Panthers can pick up first downs relatively consistently though- even if those same drivers are not providing points- the team will be in a prime position for the upset. This game will be decided by the Panthers' success between the 20s, not in the red zone.
Take advantage of injuries in the trenches
Both teams enter Sunday's match starting the feel the injury bug biting. The Panthers will notably be missing safety Jeremy Chinn, who was placed on the injured reserve list this week, and Week 3 darling Laviska Shenault who is nursing a hamstring injury. Game-time decision Xaiver Woods, ball-of-energy Frankie Luvu, and defensive end Marquis Haynes are all in question for the Panther as well. The 49ers on the other hand are going to be without defensive linemen Arik Armstead and Javon Kinlaw, as well as both Left Tackles Trent Williams and Colton McKivitz.
The Panthers have an opportunity to win the trenches this week in a game that should be a slog in that area of the field. The defensive line of the 49ers is decimated, giving the Panthers a wonderful opportunity to key in on the supremely talented Nick Bosa and lean more heavily on the rushing attack. Don't expect the tight ends to be the key through the air this week, as there should pretty much always be one in line to mitigate Bosa's effectiveness. On the other side, whether or not Luvu plays, missing the future Hall of Famer Trent Williams, and his backup has given Brians Burns and co. a great chance to create some much-needed pressure off the edge.
Both coordinators for the Panthers will be looking to find a way to maximize potential gains from these injuries. The early focus should be on how Ben McAdoo and Phil Snow attack these opportunities.
Bend, Don't Break
Trey Lance is out for the season with a torn ACL, so Jimmy Garoppolo finds himself back at the helm of the Niners. While this stymies the development of the 49ers' offense of the future, the offense of today is probably better off. Garoppolo is not a top-tier option, but his deficiencies are generally mitigated by his risk-averse style, as well as a strong rushing attack.
If the Panthers are to find themselves leaving Bank of America stadium with a win on Sunday, making Jimmy G play outside of his comfort zone will be necessary. The 49ers will pick up first downs and slog their way to some long drives, and that is okay. Avoiding the big plays on earlier downs will eventually incite situations where it is up to Garoppolo to move the chains, which is definitely the preferred situation in make-or-break situations for Snow's defense.
Key in on the run game, keep Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk in front of the secondary, and take calculated aggressions when the opportunity presents itself. Staying disciplined can allow the Panthers' strong defense to lead this team to the win.
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