Patriots Enter Most Important Draft of Bill Belichick Era
For the first time since 2000, the New England Patriots are entering the NFL Draft without Tom Brady on the roster. His absence - along with the departure of several other key free agents this offseason - make this year's draft for the Patriots a must-win situation.
After nine Super Bowl appearances and six championships, New England is about to have their most important draft of the Bill Belichick era. With 12 draft picks in their arsenal following the Rob Gronkowski trade, the weight of the franchise's run of the success continuing into a third decade lies on how the 2020 NFL Draft pans out for Belichick and the Patriots.
Because the league is conducting their first ever draft on a virtual landscape, it may add some extra uncertainty and hiccups that teams normally wouldn't come across on draft day. But if there is one team we know will be fully prepared for this type of event, it's New England, who are coached and prepared by one of the most meticulous head coaches in the NFL.
As a primer, let's go over what we know about the Patriots heading into the draft, which is set to take place tonight (Thursday, April 23) at 8 p.m. ET:
1st Round Selection
As is stands, because New England was eliminated by the Titans in the Wild Card round of the playoffs last season they have the 23rd overall pick in the first round of this year's draft. This year, there's a lot of uncertainty at that point in the draft.
Most draft boards have "first round" talent trailing off anywhere between Nos. 16-22 on Day 1. That's why Senior Bowl director Jim Nagy mentioned last week that many teams in the mid-to-late part of the first round were trying to trade back. He said those teams believe if they trade back and accumulate Day 2 picks they can get a player with same/similar grades on Day 2 as a player they could find in the 20s of the first round.
If Belichick's grading system has the talent dipping off before the Patriots' draft pick at 23, then it's almost a guarantee that he will try and find some way to either trade back or completely out of the first round. If someone like Jordan Love, Yetur Gross-Matos, or Javon Kinlaw began slipping to the mid-to-late part of the first round, then that would be one of the best opportunities New England would have to try and trade back with a team that wants one of those players. If there's no takers, then they could happily take any of those playmakers at 23.
Total Draft Picks
Here are the draft picks the six-time Super Bowl champions have in each round of the 2020 Draft:
1st Round: No. 23
2nd Round: N/A
3rd Round: No. 87, No. 98, No. 100
4th Round: No. 125, No. 139
5th Round: No. 172
6th Round: No. 195, No. 204, No. 212, No. 213
7th Round: No. 230
The biggest obstacle for New England this year is the fact that they don't have a second round pick. However, they own 12 total draft picks, which can help them package something together to get a second round selection.
The Patriots were able to swap their seventh round pick (No. 241) for a fourth round pick (No. 139) in the Gronkowski trade. Gaining a fourth round pick for a player that isn't playing is always a plus, and having another fourth round pick provides extra ammunition for a team that needs to strike gold multiple times in the draft.
Team Needs
Here are the positional needs for the Patriots heading into the draft, listed in order from most to least essential:
1) Linebacker
2) Tight End
3) Quarterback
4) Edge Rusher
5) Wide Receiver
6) Offensive Line
7) Kicker
8) Safety
With Kyle Van Noy and Jamie Collins now gone, New England signed former Jets LB Brandon Copeland, but did nothing else to address the position prior to the draft. Getting a young, talented playmaker at that position with a premium pick makes a lot of sense if the value is there in the first round, as does getting an edge rusher.
The value doesn't look like it will be there on Day 1 at QB with the 23rd overall pick, so the Patriots may wait until the third round to grab another player they can throw into the starting quarterback competition with Jarrett Stidham and Brian Hoyer. NFL Media's Ian Rapoport reported that New England intends to draft a quarterback with a "premium" pick and also said the third round falls under the category of "premium", so that looks like the sweet spot for them to select one.
It's very plausible that Belichick would try to trade back from the 23rd pick and take a tight end, specifically Notre Dame's Cole Kmet, who is the top tight end in this year's weak class. Grabbing a top player at that position would be a major upgrade at tight end now that the team only has Matt LaCosse and Ryan Izzo on the roster.
We saw last season how the offensive line struggled when they started getting hit with the injury bug, and it didn't help that New England lacked overall depth across the unit. Drafting a player or two at center, guard or tackle can be justified at any point in the draft, but more likely on Day 2 and/or 3.
Safety and captain Devin McCourty is coming off one of his best seasons in the NFL. But he is 32 years old, and fellow safety Patrick Chung is the same age. Those two starters are nearing the end of their careers. The Patriots did sign Adrian Phillips this offseason, but grabbing a safety in the draft that they can take time developing is a very smart strategy.
Now that Stephen Gostkowski has been released, the Patriots do not currently have a starting kicker. There are a few viable options in this year's draft class, so expect them to pick one in the later rounds.
With several holes to fill and many draft picks to use, it's tough to project who the Patriots will target and when they will target them in the draft. That adds to the adrenaline, which was already high given the stakes of this year's draft for the organization.
If Belichick can hit on this year's draft class, then he can potentially extend his historic level of success as a head coach into a third decade. But if he drafts more duds than studs, then the team's run of success could come to a screeching halt.
