The Patriots Have a Problem at Running Back... But It's a Good One
The end of Thursday's preseason opener between the New England Patriots and the Washington Football Team was just hilarious.
While Bill Belichick was eager to kneel the clock out up 15-13 with just over a minute left, Football Team head coach Ron Rivera seemed equally eager to keep the festivities alive, calling a timeout after a first down QB kneel. One strongside HB toss out of 12 personnel and 91-yards later, Rhamondre Stevenson had Gillette Stadium absolutely roaring.
Stevenson's burst of instant electricity put an exclamation point on a fairly impressive all-around showing by the Patriots' running back room -- and that means that, come the August 31st roster deadline, Belichick will have some tough decisions to make.
Generally, New England carries 4 running backs on the roster, not including a fullback.
Of these 4 backs, the team likes to maintain 1-2 pure runners and 2-3 pass-catching backs; the way the current halfback room is stacked, there are odd men out in both categories that absolutely should not be.
As it stands, the Patriots have 6 backs on the roster: Brandon Bolden, Damien Harris, Sony Michel, Rhamondre Stevenson, J.J. Taylor, and James White.
Pure Runners:
Without thinking twice, Harris is an instant roster lock. He has taken most of his snaps at first-team, and is showing all the signs of developing into a top 5 pure runner in the league.
On a play called back by penalty in yesterday's game, he showed the ability to jump-cut, a trait that could make him viable in zone runs out of lighter personnel. He showed flashes of this trait last season, so his game has definitely been augmented over the offseason.
Read More: Film Review: Damien Harris, the Patriots' Bell-Cow Back Moving Forward
With the offense acquiring two versatile tight ends in Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith, Josh McDaniels will likely have the flexibility to call anything from a deep route pattern to a power run out of the same 12 personnel -- this might mean lighter boxes for Harris, leaving him poised to be one of the most lethal rushers Belichick has ever coached.
Likely second on the depth chart of pure runners is Michel. Prior to training camp, Michel was being slated as a potential trade option. However, in light of his strong finish to the 2020 season and his energetic training camp showing, Michel will probably find his way onto the team as a complement to Harris, similar to his role in the thunder and lightning duo of Michel and Nick Chubb back at Georgia.
Read More: Film Review: Sony Michel is Good Again
Therefore, in terms of pure runners, this leaves Stevenson as, technically, a "bubble" player.
However, the combination of Belichick's successful draft record at the position and his general proclivity to "redshirt" rookie running backs seems to indicate that Stevenson will probably spend the year on the bench (but on the roster), or on IR/PUP with a case of ‘Foxboro Flu.’
Either way, Stevenson should be in a Patriots uniform for the next few years.
Pass Catchers:
When it comes to pass catchers, future predictions start to get murky.
Immediately, White is most likely the primary receiving back. Though he has certainly lost some wiggle with age, the longest-tenured back on the team unsurprisingly remains the most knowledgable about the system as well.
White is currently on a team-friendly 1-year contract, making just over $2 million this season. So while he will definitely be on the roster this season, his future with the franchise seems murkier than a lot of fans might hope.
Part of the ambiguity surrounding White's future has to do with the emergence of Taylor as a potential heir.
Taylor's stature and style are reminiscent of newly-retired Dion Lewis -- specifically the late 2017 iteration of Lewis. Lewis, like Taylor, was a shorter and shifter receiving back that electrified, both out of the backfield and as a kick returner. However, by 2017, Lewis improved his ability to lower his pads and finish through contact instead of just around it. This trait was evident in Taylor's film going back to his college days at Arizona.
White's experience and Taylor's upside as a runner, receiver, and returner leave Bolden as the odd-man-out.
In the past, Bolden has provided a strong presence in special teams outside of the returner role (his blocked punt against the San Diego Chargers in 2014 immediately comes to mind). However, he was never a featured runner for the team and has been a fringe-roster player since 2018. It's hard to imagine a scenario in which Belichick chooses a 31-year old Bolden over either receiving back or Stevenson -- though it's possible Bolden's positive veteran locker-room presence plays a factor.
Final Verdict:
For all the glamor the quarterback battle has seen this offseason, the 2021 New England offense will primarily thrive on the ground. Therefore, given the immense depth and identity of the offense, it would not surprise me to see Belichick keep 5 running backs (assuming no players on injured reserve).
This wouldn't be an unprecedented move -- Belichick kept 5 backs on the roster back in 2019, the season after the Patriots were so shallow at RB that they started Cordarelle Patterson in the backfield.
Belichick's philosophy emphasizes situational awareness in every aspect of the sport; it would be consistent with his approach to acknowledge the future fits of the team's current backfield and, correspondingly, ensure that the team doesn't lose out on talent.
Regardless, the team's conundrum at runningback is a great one to have. For a team with such uncertainty at quarterback to succeed, controlling the trenches and ground-game is a must -- and New England has all the makings to be a premiere ground-and-pound team this fall.
