Retro Grade: Did Patriots 2019 Draft Justify Hype?
It's no secret that the New England Patriots' 2022 draft class is being eviscerated by draft pundits and casual observers alike. Across the board, the Patriots' 10 picks have been amongst the lowest graded, if not the lowest.
Most recently, Pro Football Focus gave New England a D, its worst grade handed out in 2022.
But here's a little secret: Post-draft grades don't mean anything ... at all.
For a lot of analysts who don't treat draft scouting as a year-round endeavor, draft grades are less about being able to accurately predict the success of draft classes and more about just happening to recognize the players that a certain team took.
The Patriots' 2019 draft class was among their highest-graded draft classes ever, netting the front office a plethora of "A" and "A-" grades from every major media outlet. In the spirit of roasting draft grades, it's worth taking a stroll down memory lane and seeing how the 2019 draft class actually panned out for the team.
Round 1 (32): N'Keal Harry, Wide Receiver, Arizona State
Harry was hailed by many analysts to be the ideal red-zone replacement for Rob Gronkowski, who had retired earlier that offseason. To some extent, this prediction has come true, as Harry's production for the New England offense since 2019 has been similar to Gronkowski's production for the Patriots offense in that same time span. Of course, Gronkowski hasn't taken a single snap for New England during that time.
Round 2 (45): Joejuan Williams, Cornerback, Vanderbilt
With the Patriots defense needing depth at defensive back, Williams was seen as a decent selection, albeit a slight reach. While offering a great physical stature, he was seen largely as a project. As many projects do, Williams has shown flashes of production but has largely fizzled out.
Round 3 (77): Chase Winovich, Defensive End, Michigan
Anyone who watched Winovich in college knew he was made for the New England defense; this selection was hailed as one of the best selections of the entire draft. As a spitting image of longtime Patriots defensive end Rob Ninkovich (plus a signature hairstyle), Winovich showed flashes of production. After starting the 2020 season as one of the best edge defenders in the league, his snap count inexplicably dropped, and he was traded to the Cleveland Browns at the end of the 2021 season.
Round 3 (87): Damien Harris, Running Back, Alabama
Ironically, Harris was widely considered one of the weaker selections in the New England draft. Three seasons later, he is one of the best pure runners in the NFL. In 2021, Harris led the team in rushing with 929 yards on just 202 carries for a healthy 4.6 average.
Round 3 (101): Yodny Cajuste, Tackle, West Virginia
Prior to the 2019 college football season, Cajuste was being looked at as a top prospect in the NFL draft. After spending two seasons injured, he finally saw the field in 2021. He is yet to show any production, and with the 2022 season being the final year of his rookie contract, there's slim chance he shows much.
Round 4 (118): Hjalte Froholdt, Guard
Froholdt spent his rookie season on injured reserve and his sophomore season seeing limited action. He was waived by the Patriots in the midst of the 2020 season and currently plays for the Browns.
Round 4 (133): Jarrett Stidham, Quarterback, Auburn
Before the days of Mac Jones, there was a point when New England fans were excited about Jarrett Stidham. The former five-star recruit entered his first NFL game in 2019 at the tail end of a blowout win against the New York Jets. In his second pass as a professional, he threw a pick-six on a check-down pass. In 2020, he again saw action in relief of quarterback Brian Hoyer against the Kansas City Chiefs, where he again threw two interceptions in under two quarters of play. With the Patriots drafting Western Kentucky quarterback Bailey Zappe in the 2022 draft, Stidham will likely be replaced as the No. 3 quarterback.
AP Photo/Matt Rourke
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Round 5 (159): Byron Cowart, Defensive Lineman, Maryland
Cowart was actually the No. 1 recruit in the nation coming out of high school in 2015. Despite showing character concerns in college, he showed some promise as a rookie and sophomore. He spent the 2021 season on the reserve list, but may be a solid partner to Christian Barmore in the low trenches.
Round 5 (163): Jake Bailey, Punter, Stanford
Bailey beat out former punter Ryan Allen for the starting job and has consistently been one of the best punters in the league since. Incredibly, a fifth-round punter is probably the second-best draft pick in this class.
Round 7 (252): Ken Webster, Cornerback, Mississippi
Webster was released after training camp of his rookie season.
Bottom Line: Amongst this entire draft, only two players have been above average at their respective positions. While this draft may have been highly graded three years ago, hindsight makes it easy to see that draft success is partially just unpredictable altogether.
In 2022, the New England draft class is being heavily criticized; yet, there's a real chance that in 2025, the narrative shifts altogether.
