Patriots Draft Guru: Bill Belichick vs. Mel Kiper
Hard - er, make that foolhardy - to argue with Bill Belichick's success through the years in the NFL Draft. The savvy personnel guru has put his stamp of approval on picks that spawned numerous All-Pros, countless highlights and, oh yeah, six Super Bowls.
But could Belichick's drafting - and incessant trading - have been better? What if he would have simply listened to the suggestions of longtime ESPN draft expert Mel Kiper? (For what it's worth, Kiper in 1989 infamously said the Dallas Cowboys would be "foolish" to draft Troy Aikman over Tony Mandarich, but let's give him some rope here.)
Kiper's been mocking the NFL Draft since 1984; Belichick overseeing the Patriots' picks since 2000.
Let's look at the last 10 drafts, remember who Kiper recommended and who Belichick selected, and keep score, shall we?
2012
Kiper prediction: DE Courtney Upshaw, S Harrison Smith - Upshaw was average as a first-round pick by Baltimore. Smith, meanwhile, became one of the better safeties of his generation and has appeared in 151 games for the Vikings.
Patriots pick: DE Chandler Jones, LB Dont’a Hightower - Patriots were unusually aggressive, trading up twice. Both selections worked. Jones helped win a Super Bowl before being traded to Arizona after three years. Hightower made a series of clutch plays in the postseason that led to three rings.
Belichick 1, Kiper 0.
2013
Kiper prediction: CB Desmond Trufant - Now a journeyman free agent, Trufant made the Pro Bowl with the Falcons in 2015 after being selected 22nd overall.
Patriots pick: LB Jamie Collins - Patriots didn't pick at their original No. 29, instead trading down and ending up with Collins as their first selection in Round 2. That trade down, however, also led to the acquisitions of cornerback Logan Ryan and running back LeGarrette Blount. Not only was Collins an All-Pro, New England turned its initial pick into three Super Bowl contributors.
Belichick 2, Kiper 0.
2014
Kiper prediction: S Calvin Pryor - Total bust. Selected 18th overall by the New York Jets, he played 44 games in three seasons before getting traded to Cleveland.
Patriots pick: DT Dominique Easley - Arguably the biggest first-round bust of the Belichick era, he appeared in only 22 games over two seasons before his release.
Belichick 2, Kiper 1.
2015
Kiper prediction: OL Cedric Ogbuehi - He went off the board 21st overall, but has disappointed. The former Bengal is currently with his sixth team.
Patriots pick: DT Malcom Brown - While he never developed into the next Vince Wilfork, he was a solid presence along the Patriots’ interior defensive line after he was drafted 32nd overall in 2015. He appeared in 71 games over four seasons and helped the team win two Super Bowls.
Belichick 3, Kiper 1.
2016-17
Kiper prediction: N/A - Thanks to the organization's alleged role in "Deflate-gate", Patriots had no first-round pick in 2016 and in 2017 they traded their top selection to the Saints pre-draft for receiver Brandin Cooks.
Patriots pick: WR Brandin Cooks - The speedy receiver caught 65 passes for 1,082 yards and seven touchdowns, but had more productive seasons before (New Orleans) and after (Rams) his stint in New England. His final snap with Patriots was being knocked out of Super Bowl LII before being traded.
Belichick 3, Kiper 1. N/A 2.
2018
Kiper prediction: OT Kolton Miller, CB Josh Jackson - Miller ended up with the Raiders as the 15th overall selection and developed into a solid starting tackle. Jackson dropped to the second round, and is now free agent after unsuccessful stints in Green Bay, New York and Kansas City.
Patriots pick: OT Isaiah Wynn, RB Sony Michel - Wynn is the Patriots’ current starting left tackle. Michel, meanwhile, helped New England win a Super Bowl as a rookie but was eventually traded to Los Angeles.
Belichick 4, Kiper 1. N/A 2.
2019
Kiper prediction: DE Clelin Ferrell - The Las Vegas Raiders picked him fourth overall, but he has so far registered only 7.5 sacks in three seasons.
Patriots pick: WR N’Keal Harry. Big whiff. Patriots used the final pick of the first round on Harry, who has not lived up to expectations and appears to be on his way out. Hard to lose to the underwhelming Ferrell, but Harry likely will catch only four touchdowns as a Patriot.
Belichick 4, Kiper 2. N/A 2.
2020
Kiper prediction: OL Cesar Ruiz - With left guard Joe Thuney in a contract year, Kiper suggested the Patriots pick Ruiz. He eventually went to New Orleans and is a solid two-year starter at center and guard.
Patriots pick: S Kyle Dugger - Originally scheduled to draft 23rd overall, they traded the selection to the Chargers for 37 and 71. Dugger - a starter - and an extra pick via trade trumps Ruiz.
Belichick 5, Kiper 2. N/A 2.
2021
Kiper prediction: QB Trey Lance - With Mac Jones going third overall to San Francisco in his projection, the Patriots traded up to pick Lance. The North Dakota State product ended up as a 49er, but spent most of his rookie year on the sidelines behind former Patriot Jimmy Garoppolo.
Patriots pick: QB Mac Jones - One season is too soon for concrete claims, but most Patriots fans don't want a do-over. They picked Jones 15th overall and he immediately and emphatically won and kept the starting job.
Belichick 6. Kiper 2. N/A 2.
Bottom line: Kiper is an entertainer. Belichick is a legend.
