Why They Win: Patriots at Dolphins, Week 1
What: New England Patriots (0-0) at Miami Dolphins (0-0)
Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
When: 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Who's Won: Miami leads series 59-54 (Last: 33-24 MIA, 1/9/22)
The New England Patriots will take their talents to South Beach to open the 2022 NFL season, facing the Miami Dolphins on kickoff weekend for the third consecutive season. In a battle of Buffalo Bills' pursuers in the AFC East, each team will be looking to make a statement in the early going.
As it stands, the host Dolphins are currently favored, having last season earned their first sweep of the yearly set since 2000. But, kicking off what's set to be a weekly Wednesday staple, the Patriots have three areas to attack and succeed on the road to victory ...
1. Mac Can Attack
For all intents and purposes, the NFL schedule makers bestowed the Patriots a gift by matching Miami into their Week 1 slot. It allows them to make a statement in the AFC East race without facing an egregiously herculean task (i.e. facing Buffalo) and Mac Jones has a chance to quell the storms created by early doubters against a team that's witnessed some of his finer statistical efforts.
Jones' career got off to a solid start in his introductions to the long-standing rivalry, posting methodic, if not managerial, numbers (49-of-69, 542 yards, two scores, and an interception). That yardage over two meetings was his best against a single opponent in his rookie season.
New England did go 0-2 against the Dolphins last season but the first South Beach sweep could hardly be blamed on Jones. A combination of his prior success against Miami and the fact that the Dolphins' defense could be better described as potential-packed rather than proven. The safety slots should particularly intriguing, with respective sophomore/junior Jevon Holland and Brandon Jones serving as the last defenses. Though Mac Jones and the primary offense struggled in the preseason, his improved deep ball was one of the more optimistic happenings of the offseason.
2. Pressure's Gonna Drop on Tua
Jones probably has one of the nicest perches among football's franchise quarterbacks. His Sunday companion and fellow Alabama alum Tua Tagovailoa, however, is still perhaps envious.
The Dolphins are looking for a stop on the Tua rollercoaster, one that will yield a franchise quarterback either way. Miami spent a good part of its offseason doing whatever it could to eliminate any excuse he could, namely through the additions of Tyreek Hill, Raheem Mostert, Chase Edmonds, and Cedrick Wilson. All that spending will mean nothing if Tagovailoa isn't able to take another step further in his development. That means he'll have to take on a bigger role in Miami's results as he was mostly relegated to game manager duties in both New England contests last season. Since his NFL entry in 2020, the Dolphins are 2-7 when Tagovailoa throws at least 35 times.
To that end, New England has a prime opportunity to pounce on a new-look Miami team still trying to figure out how all of its parts work cohesively. That'll involve upping the pressure, but the Patriots' pass rush never generated a consistently positive rhythm despite the best efforts and made little if any efforts to boost the unit this offseason. New England's 37 percent win rate in the pass rush was 23rd-best in football and their lack of consistent pressure was exposed by Josh Allen in January's playoff cameo. Christian Barmore was a solid pocket collapsing weapon as a rookie but he might have to finish the job through sacks in year two. Meanwhile, veterans Matthew Judon and Deatrich Wise Jr. must live up to big contracts and make the wary Tagovailoa as uncomfortable as possible.
3. They've Prepared For a Fete in the Heat
The official NFL schedule says that the Patriots will take on the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, but they could also be battling the Miami Heat as well.
Rest assured ... Jimmy Butler won't be on the field on Sunday. The heat instead takes on a literal prescience, as temperatures are set to reach the lows 90s come Sunday afternoon. Having built its success on perfect preparation, New England has headed down to South Beach early for anything but a vacation.
It's said that Bill Belichick has a sixth sense capable of letting him know to prepare for any situation the Patriots might face in a given season. That conspiracy theory has been indirectly proven by the fact that Belichick staged several outdoor practices in Las Vegas prior to a Sin City preseason game against the Raiders.
"We’ve certainly had a good opportunity to be in some warm weather this year. I’d say this has been a little bit warmer than usual training camp," Belichick said of the summer atmosphere. "I think (the Vegas heat) is one of those things that you don’t really know until you get into playing in it. It’s different to train in it than to actually play.”
The Patriots set the tone for one of the most dominant periods in NFL history with a win in freezing Foxboro back in January 2002. A win in a reverse extreme has nothing near the weight of that AFC Divisional match but it can certainly help push New England in a similarly victorious direction. Per Pro Football Reference, Sunday could be the fourth Patriots game with a kickoff temperature of at least 90 degrees (the last being a 2018 loss in Jacksonville).
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Geoff Magliocchetti is on Twitter @GeoffJMags
