The Patriots' Blueprint to Beating the Bucs
Nine months ago, after the New England Patriots' horrid showing on Monday Night Football against the Buffalo Bills, I wrote about my feelings.
The natural state of the universe is entropy -- occasionally we are able to witness a level of chaos, dysfunction, and patheticness that cannot be surmised in currently existent words. In my hometown, we have therefore coined this phenomenon as "jealing." What New England Patriots fans had to sit through on Monday night against the Buffalo Bills was jealing in its purest, most elegant form.
A solid "jeal" is tough to watch (like the scene when Skyler sings "Happy Birthday" in Breaking Bad) -- unfortunately, it's becoming an all-too-familiar affair for the Foxborough Faithful. Because, make no mistake about it: what Patriots fans had to sit through on Sunday afternoon against the New Orleans Saints was jealing in its purest, most elegant form.
After an uncharacteristically sloppy performance against the Saints, a battered and discordant New England team is now being thrown into the jaws of the defending Super Bowl champions... led by some guy that used to be popular in the New England region.
On paper this is a blowout. BUT (and there's is a big but, as Sir Mix-a-Lot would want you to know), it's not that clear of an affair. These two teams are so similar in offensive philosophy and familiar to one another that this might as well be a divisional matchup -- and these types of divisional matchups are either slugfests or blowouts with nothing in between.
Patriots' Defensive Gameplan:
In his words to the media today, Bill Belichick described the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense as the "best in the league."
The Buccaneers offense has no weakness. Their offensive line is full of stalwarts, their weapons are second to none, and their quarterback is literally the greatest of all time. With the Patriots' current defensive state, stopping this offense is probably out of the question -- instead, the goal will be damage control.
In Super Bowl XXV in 1990, Belichick, then the defensive coordinator for the New York Giants, put together a genius gameplan that involved running a 2-5 defense to encourage the Buffalo Bills to stick to the ground game. The philosophy behind the chess move was that the Bills' passing game was just too lethal to be contained for four quarters -- so if the Giants allowed running back Thurman Thomas to rush for a hundred yards, Buffalo would be content to keep the ball on the ground. The strategy worked and Belichick's gameplan for Super Bowl XXV is currently resting in Canton.
Belichick may very use a similar approach to dissuade the Tampa Bay aerial attack.
The New England defense will likely be showing Tom Brady a collection of two-high safety looks pre-snap with early-down man coverage that'll encourage Brady to check into run plays. While recent iterations of the team's defense since 2019 have become more Cover 1 and Cover 3-centric, it may be time to see the return of the Cover 2 man that made the bend-don't-break defenses of the mid-2010s so dependable; especially with the team missing its best isolation man-to-man corner in Stephon Gilmore.
Additionally, the Patriots defense will likely be employing lighter personnel towards the trenches.
Through three weeks, the New England defense has been very stratified by run versus pass situations. Linemen such as Davon Godchaux, Lawrence Guy, and Deatrich Wise Jr. have seen most of their snaps in running scenarios, whereas rushers Chase Winovich and Josh Uche have seen their snap counts rise in passing scenarios; the only true all-around lineman the team has employed is Matt Judon.
It would, as a result, make sense to see Uche and Winovich's snap counts rise in all scenarios on Sunday night if Belichick wants to encourage Brady's run checks.
Uche especially seems poised to have a strong game. If the Patriots bring in Uche for any NASCAR or lighter personnel packages, he could see his time being split rushing from the edge or from an A-gap shadow.
Coming out of college, one aspect of Uche's play that stood out was his ability to time his rushes when standing at the A-gap. His well-timed rushes allowed him to immediately wreak havoc on the interior -- and anyone who follows football knows that internal pressure is the most effective way to get to Brady, both literally and mentally.
On the edge, Uche has already had one bout with current Buccaneers starting right tackle Tristan Wirfs. In 2019, Uche, then a Michigan Wolverine, faced off against Wirfs and the Iowa Hawkeyes. Despite Wirfs being considered the best tackle prospect that year, Uche (significantly rawer of a player back in 2019) more than held his own, beating Wirfs on a few reps. Uche's bullrush gave Wirfs significant issues, but for some reason Uche just didn't use the move enough. When Uche began stringing power rushes with lateral moves (chops/rips), he found some solid production. Uche's matchup familiarity could end up being a surprisingly notable aspect of Sunday's main event.
This Brady-led offense is borderline identical to the one we saw on Foxboro for the last two decades -- the protection calls, route adjustments, everything. Scheming pressure will be a chess match of Belichick and Brady knowing each others' counters and counters to those counters; but this game could very well end up being a sack-fest.
Patriots' Offensive Gameplan:
Coming into the season, the 2021 Patriots were supposed to be a ground and pound team. They very much still can be that, but probably is not the game to figure that out.
The Tampa Bay defensive front is just too menacing. If the New England offense comes out in 21/22 personnel and is able to run the ball consistently, then more power to them -- they will be able to dictate the tempo of the whole game and probably have a great chance of winning. But it's just not likely that they'll be able to assert their will on the ground, especially after their jeal last week.
The Buccaneers secondary is battered and broken and is very much their Achilles heel. The offensive gameplan for the Patriots is simple: 12 personnel, protect with extra blockers regularly, and methodically pick apart the withered secondary.
The key to ensuring that this gameplan works is giving Mac Jones enough time on dropbacks to actually deliver the ball. As simple as that sounds, this was a major issue in the team's poor showing against New Orleans. However, the Tampa Bay secondary is poor enough to where even three receiver plays should have a chance of getting open, especially with backfield mismatches using J.J. Taylor, or slot mismatches with Jakobi Meyers.
The aforementioned idea of a sack-fest goes both ways. Brady knows the New England system inside-out, including protections -- it would be surprising if he did NOT spend time with Buccaneers defensive coordinator Todd Bowles devising blitz schemes to throw Jones into the fire.
In order for the Patriots to win this game, the offense will have to get off to a hot start and actually score points in the red zone. Jones cannot be passive and will have to play the best game of his career to this point. This is not a game that New England can afford to play from behind -- Brady is just too good at figuring defenses out towards the tail-end of games. The Patriots will have to build an early lead and stay aggressive till the clock hits triple zeroes.
While this may not be the New England squad of the last two decades, the reality of this matchup is still exciting. This is the greatest head coach of all time against the greatest quarterback (and tight end) of all time. For all the negativity the nonstop media coverage has received, this game has the potential to be an instant classic with a legacy that will be talked about for years.
It is, after all, the GOAT Bowl.
