Patriots Have Tough 2020 Schedule No Matter How You Look at It
The New England Patriots' schedule for the 2020 season was released Thursday night. We already knew who their opponents would be for the upcoming season and where they would play them, so the schedule release just told us when those games would take place.
New England has a tough schedule. But the problem is, many people don't quite understand how tough the Patriots' schedule is for the 2020 season. There's two ways to look at it; let's first look at the more disliked way, which is taking the winning percentage for their opponents from the 2019 season to determine each team's strength of schedule.
Here are the strongest schedules based on that model for the 2020 season, listed from strongest to weakest:
1) New England Patriots (.535)
2) New York Jets (.531)
3) Miami Dolphins (.527)
4) Arizona Cardinals (.523)
5) Atlanta Falcons (.523)
6) Buffalo Bills (.523)
7) Detroit Lions (.523)
8) San Francisco 49ers (.523)
9) Houston Texans (.515)
10) Denver Broncos (.511)
Many people don't like using the above model for projecting strength of schedule, because a team's squad from the previous year can be very different from the team they have the next year. That's one of the reasons many folks on Twitter have downplayed how tough New England's schedule really is for the 2020 season.
Okay, that's fine. Then let's take a look at another, potentially more accurate model, which determines the strength of schedule based on their opponents' average over/under win total. TJ Hernandez of 4for4 Fantasy Football was nice enough to gather this information for all of us based on what DraftKings Sportsbook had for numbers:
That's a lot to look at, so here are the top 10 strongest schedules, in order from strongest to weakest, for the 2020 season based on the above model:
1) Atlanta Falcons (8.4)
2) New York Giants (8.3)
3) New York Jets (8.3)
4) Las Vegas Raiders (8.3)
5) Denver Broncos (8.3)
6) Washington Redskins (8.2)
7) Los Angeles Rams (8.2)
8) Carolina Panthers (8.2)
9) New Orleans Saints (8.1)
10) New England Patriots (8.1)
This model shows that the Patriots' schedule isn't quite as strong as compared to the other model, but they still have one of the strongest schedules in the league.
To me, it doesn't matter whether you use 2019 numbers or 2020 projections, you're taking a shot in the dark. But either way you look at it, New England is in for a tough ride next season.
It's a tough hand that the Patriots have been dealt. As they enter their first season of the Bill Belichick era without Tom Brady, having an easier schedule would have allowed Jarrett Stidham to ease his way into the starting quarterback role, build some confidence, which would have helped with future success. But that's not the case. Instead, New England must face the NFC West this year, which includes the San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Los Angeles Rams, and Arizona Cardinals. On top of that, they must face some of the best teams the AFC has to offer, like the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, Houston Texans, and the Buffalo Bills, who, as always, they will face twice during the regular season.
The six-time Super Bowl champions are about to take on one of their toughest schedules of the past 20 years. That's not ideal given the state of the franchise.
