Previewing the Patriots-Bills Playoff Matchup from a Fantasy Perspective
The New England Patriots will begin their 2021 postseason journey by traveling to Orchard Park, New York for a Saturday evening showdown with the AFC East Division Champions. The Pats and Bills will meet on Saturday, January 15 at Highmark Stadium, with kickoff set for: 8:15 pm ET.
One of the many ways to examine the matchup is through the fantasy football perspective.
In that regard, let's look at Sports Illustrated Fantasy Editor Michael Fabiano's Wild Card Weekend Start 'Em and Sit 'Em as they pertain to the Pats-Bills battle on Saturday night.
Here are the notable players mentioned in the matchup with Fabiano's comments, along with some additional insight, via Patriot Maven, on that projection.
‘Starts’ of the Week
For this Wild Card Weekend playoff matchup, Fabiano did not designate any Patriots or Bills as a ‘start’ of the week. While this may seem a bit surprising on the surface, this is actually a smart strategy for fantasy players this week. New England and Buffalo are evenly matched on both sides of the ball. With each defense expected to dictate the tempo of Saturday’s game, fantasy ‘studs’ are not likely to be plenty for this weekend’s upcoming matchup at Highmark Stadium.
‘Sits’ of the Week
Mac Jones at Bills (Sat. 8:15 p.m. ET, CBS):
Fabiano’s Analysis:
Jones might have been the best rookie quarterback in fantasy football, but he wasn’t a consistent point producer. Also, he was particularly bad when he faced the Bills (5.6 fantasy points combined in two meetings). One of those games was odd in that Jones threw the ball three times due to weather, but it’s going to be freezing cold in Buffalo on Saturday. I’d keep Jones out of action
Patriot Maven Analysis:
Considering Jones threw only three passes in Week Thirteen, choosing to sit Jones as a fantasy quarterback is understandable. In Week Sixteen, the Bills kept Jones from finding his rhythm. The 23-year-old completed a season-low 43.8 percent of his passes with two interceptions on his way to a 31.4 QB rating. He will undoubtedly be looking to improve in those areas. Still, Jones will need to be on the watch for potential pressure from the Bills’ front seven. While solid at all three levels, Buffalo’s defensive brain trust is likely to attempt to confuse the Pats’ rookie by deploying strategically placed blitzes from the second and third level of the defense. If the Pats’ offensive line can provide adequate protection for Jones, he should find ways to move the ball through the air on Saturday night.
Jakobi Meyers at Bills (Sat. 8:15 p.m. ET, CBS):
Fabiano’s Analysis:
Meyers finished with 11-plus points in three of his last four games, but a tough road matchup in Buffalo makes him difficult to trust this week. The Bills have been more than formidable against wideouts since Week 9, surrendering four touchdowns and the second-fewest points to the position. Buffalo has also allowed the fewest points to receivers lined out wide in that time.
Patriot Maven Analysis:
Meyers was the most targeted and most reliable Patriots’ pass catcher in 2021. The 25-year-old finished the season having amassed 83 receptions for 866 yards, averaging 10.4 yards per reception, with two touchdowns. Against Buffalo’s versatile defense, the Patriots will need Meyers to continue as their go-to threat. The Pats have used him both on the outside and in the slot. Meyers has performed admirably in each role, displaying his versatility and reliability. While there are not many negatives to his game, Meyers is not the most athletic of receivers. As such, he has not displayed a penchant to provide an abundance of yards after the catch (YAC). Still, Meyers will be one to watch on third down situations. While he has the potential to be a fantasy points producer, the potential lack of YAC makes Fabiano’s point a valid one.
Hunter Henry at Bills (Sat. 8:15 p.m. ET, CBS):
Fabiano’s Analysis:
Henry scored 13.6 fantasy points in the regular-season finale, but he had been held to single-digit points in seven of his previous nine games. That includes two games against the Bills where he was held to a combined 1.9 fantasy points. Buffalo’s defense has allowed just one touchdown and the second-fewest points to opposing tight ends since Week 9, so Henry is a sit ‘em.
Patriot Maven Analysis:
Henry finished the 2021 regular season right in line with his best seasons as a pro with 50 catches for 603 yards and a team-leading nine touchdown receptions. Despite Buffalo’s ability to effectively defend tight ends, the 27-year-old should get adequate looks on Saturday. What makes Henry such an effective receiver is his route running ability, which he does as well (if not better) than any tight end in the league. With the Patriots still poised to utilize the running game on Saturday against Buffalo, their passing opportunities will likely come mostly from play action. In that regard, Henry should see significant looks in short-yardage situations, as well as a handful of targets in the end zone. In short, Henry should continue to get opportunities in all areas of the field on Wild Card Weekend.
