Previewing the Patriots-Dolphins Matchup from a Fantasy Perspective
The Patriots will close out their regular-season slate by traveling to Miami Gardens, Florida for a Sunday evening date with their divisional-rival Miami Dolphins; a matchup which may have a hand in deciding the 2021 AFC East title. The Pats and Fins will meet on Sunday, January 9 at Hard Rock Stadium, with kickoff set for 4:25 pm ET.
One of the many ways to examine the matchup is through the fantasy football perspective.
In that regard, let's look at Sports Illustrated Fantasy Editor Michael Fabiano's Week Eighteen Start 'Em and Sit 'Em as they pertain to the Pats-Dolphins battle on Sunday.
Here are the notable players mentioned in the matchup with Fabiano's comments, along with some additional insight, via Patriot Maven, on that particular projection.
‘Starts’ of the Week
For this Week Eighteen matchup, Fabiano did not designate any Patriots or Dolphins as a ‘start’ of the week. While this may seem a bit surprising on the surface, this is actually a smart strategy for fantasy players this week. New England and Miami are evenly-matched on both sides of the ball. With each defense expected to dictate the tempo of Sunday’s game, fantasy ‘studs’ are not likely to be plenty for this weekend’s upcoming matchup at Hard Rock Stadium.
‘Sits’ of the Week
Tua Tagovailoa vs. Patriots
Fabiano’s Analysis:
“The Dolphins have won seven of their last eight games, but that hasn’t equated to statistical success for Tagovailoa. In fact, he’s failed to score even 18 fantasy points in a game since Week 7. He’s also put up one or fewer touchdown passes in five of his last eight games. The Patriots can still win the AFC East as well, so their tough pass defense should be even more motivated.”
Patriot Maven Analysis:
In Week One, Tagovailoa finished 16 of 27 for 202 yards, a touchdown and one interception. He also had a 3-yard TD run to lead a revamped Miami offense, which kept the Patriots' defense guessing. The Dolphins mixed in no-huddle, as well as empty backfield formations, with running back Myles Gaskin getting some dual-threat looks. Tua’s game has evolved into a more balanced attack. However, the Pats have become one of the more stifling passing defenses in the league. Though he and the Dolphins will attempt to move the ball on the Pats, Tagovailoa may not be a major fantasy points producer on Sunday.
DeVante Parker vs. Patriots
Fabiano’s Analysis:
“Parker saw a team-high 13 targets in last week’s loss to the Titans, but he finished with just four catches and 8.6 points. He’ll be a tough sell this week, as the Dolphins face a Patriots team that will be playing for the AFC East crown. What’s more, their defense has allowed two touchdowns and the second-fewest fantasy points to receivers lined out wide in their last eight contests.”
Patriot Maven Analysis:
Parker led all receivers in Week One’s matchup with the Patriots, logging 81 yards on just 4 catches, including a 30-yard connection with Tagovailoa on a second-half scoring drive. With Jalen Waddle continuing to emerge, it will be interesting to see who draws J.C. Jackson’s coverage. With Jackson intent on heading into the postseason on a high note, he will make every effort to shut down his opponent. It should be noted that Waddle needs one catch and 12 yards to reach 100 catches and 1,000 yards for the season. If Jackson matches up with Waddle, Parker may be more apt to provide fantasy points on Sunday.
Mike Gesicki vs. Patriots
Fabiano’s Analysis:
“Gesicki has failed to score double digits in three straight games and in four of his last five overall, and a matchup against the Patriots makes him a tough sell this week. Their defense has allowed just two tight ends to score more than 9.2 fantasy points this season, and it held Gesicki without a single point in Week 1. If you have depth, I’d consider sitting him in this AFC East tilt.”
Patriot Maven Analysis:
The Dolphins top tight end was relatively quiet in the first meeting between these two teams, seeing only three targets on 21 offensive snaps. He did not log a reception. Since that time, he has accumulated 758 receiving yards with two touchdowns, While Gesicki was already expected to be a notable weapon for Tagovailoa in the red zone, the potential absence of safety Kyle Dugger may enable him to be an even greater threat to the Pats defense. Gesicki is at his best when attempting to maneuver in the middle of the field. New England will need to step up their coverage in the backfield, should Dugger be sidelined for Sunday’s matchup.
Dolphins D/ST vs. Patriots
Fabiano’s Analysis:
“The Dolphins defense put up a goose egg for fantasy fans last week, and an upcoming matchup against the Patriots makes this unit a fade for me. New England has allowed just 26 sacks this season, and enemy defenses have averaged fewer than six fantasy points against them this season.”
Patriot Maven Analysis:
Miami is one of the best blitzing teams in the NFL, with the potential to make things difficult on Patriots’ quarterback Mac Jones. However, New England’s ground attack has the ability to neutralize the Dolphins’ blitzes. Defensively, the Pats must recognize Miami’s tendencies and take advantage of them, even though it will not be easy. The battle along the offensive line will be one to watch along with the ability of Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson to break tackles and make yardage after contact. Should they have success in doing so, they should be able to limit the Dolphins’ ability to make plays on defense.
