Fantasy Football: Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Week 4 Patriots Edition
The fantasy season is officially underway, and PatriotMaven is here to help you decide what to do with the Patriots stashed on your roster.
The reigning Super Bowl champions are next up on the slate for New England, and their offense and defense both pose major problems for Bill Belichick and company. Those problems could severely limit the Patriots’ effectiveness in fantasy football, meaning there aren’t as many must-start options on the roster for the Week 4 matchup.
So while the receiving corps could be worth playing, most Patriots might be best buried on the bench.
All scores are calculated using half-point PPR, ESPN standard scoring
Sit ‘Em: Cam Newton
A week ago, I wrote that Cam Newton was an every day fantasy starter, regardless of matchup.
He proved me wrong Sunday against the Raiders, and it doesn’t look like he’s in line for a better day against the Chiefs.
Newton is a far superior passer to Lamar Jackson, as he has proved over the course of the last decade or so. Still, they are relatively similar quarterbacks in the sense that they are mobile, are the beneficiaries of quarterback draws and designed runs and can avoid taking sacks better than most.
Jackson got exposed against the Chiefs defense last week, as he was unable to pass the ball over the top and was unable to run the ball since his team was trailing for most of the night.
If New England trails early, Newton’s legs won’t be as effective as they normally are. And if he’s forced to pass more, his dual-threat abilities may not help him and his predictability, and limits as a pocket-passer may prevent him from putting up the gaudy numbers he did against Seattle in Week 2.
Kansas City’s defense has been one of the best in the league dating back to the middle of last season, and trying to throw all over it while trailing probably won’t go too well for Newton. Opposing fantasy quarterbacks average 19 points per game against the Chiefs defense – which is 0.5 points above league average – but none of them have passed for multiple touchdowns and only one has broken the 265-yard mark.
Newton is still a solid fantasy option moving forward, but against the Patriots’ toughest opponent of the season, it’s better to look elsewhere for Week 4.
Start ‘Em: Julian Edelman
The Patriots will probably be forced to pass on Sunday, and while that doesn’t necessarily mean Newton will have a good day, it could mean good things for Edelman.
Since becoming a full-time part of the offense in 2013, Edelman has played Andy Reid’s Chiefs five times, including playoffs. In those five games, Edelman has averaged 13.6 fantasy points on 10.6 targets per game.
While Brady isn’t around anymore, and Tyrann Mathieu has established himself as a key part of the Kansas City secondary, it’s hard to overlook the slot receiver’s past success. Edelman has admittedly been hit or miss through three weeks this season, with a top-tier game against a weak Seattle defense but middling performances against Las Vegas and Miami.
But with a favorable historical matchup and a pass-heavy attack on the horizon, Edelman should be an easy flex start and possible WR2 option for larger leagues.
Sit ‘Em: All Patriots Running Backs
Even though I got burned with this pick last week, I’m sticking to it in Week 4.
James White has returned to practice. Damien Harris is eligible to be activated off the injured reserve. Rex Burkhead and Sony Michel both had start-worthy performances a week ago, but they have proven in the past they are unlikely to be reliable fantasy performers in back-to-back weeks.
Crowded backfields are not good for fantasy owners, and Josh McDaniels is predictably unpredictable week in, week out.
Even in a potential shootout against Kansas City, New England will find a way to get its running backs involved. The only issue is that predicting which running back gets the bulk of that involvement is a thankless task.
Save yourself the trouble and avoid starting all Patriots running backs. It’s nearly impossible to guess which one will have a good day and which one will sit on the sidelines.
Start ‘Em: N’Keal Harry
Harry’s first three weeks have been just about as up-and-down as Edelman’s, but his ceiling has yet to be reached.
He won’t be a reliable fantasy starter until he can show a little more consistency – two sub-5-point performances are tough to stomach – but that doesn’t mean he isn’t an option.
The Chiefs defense is No. 1 against receivers in fantasy this year, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. They did most of their damage against Baltimore, which runs its offense mostly through its running backs and tight ends and rarely runs effective sets with multiple receivers lined up outside.
Receivers were averaging 23.5 fantasy points per game against Kansas City through two weeks, and while that is still below league average, it means there is some potential for both Edelman and Harry to succeed come Sunday.
The Chiefs’ secondary has improved since early last year, but their cornerbacks are still a weak spot. Harry has the potential to be a physical deep threat in the vein of D.K. Metcalf, given the fact that they are both 6-foot-4 and roughly 225 pounds.
If Harry can take the top off the defense in a high-scoring contest just once, he should get enough targets to put together a well-rounded fantasy performance on Sunday. It isn’t the strongest endorsement, but Harry should be a flex option in deeper PPR leagues.
