Analysis: Breaking Down Seahawks Possible Playoff Seeding
Over the past two weeks, the Seahawks have taken care of business with back-to-back wins over the Washington Football Team and the Rams, securing a playoff bid and an NFC West title.
But as Seattle prepares for its season finale in Arizona against San Francisco, there's still plenty to play for in regard to postseason seeding.
Currently, coach Pete Carroll's squad stands as the No. 3 seed behind the Packers and Saints. Since the Seahawks won their division and the NFC East will have a division champion with a losing record, they can't finish any worse than the No. 3 seed and are guaranteed at least one home game. There's also room for them to improve their seeding if a few breaks fall their way in Week 17.
Here's a look at how Seattle could lock up one of the top two seeds in the NFC next weekend:
How Seahawks Could Earn No. 1 Seed
Along with beating San Francisco on the road, Seattle will need a lot of outside help in order to jump to the top seed. First, Green Bay will need to lose on the road in Chicago, which isn't impossible with the 8-7 Bears still in the running for the final wild card spot and riding a three-game winning streak. Secondly, New Orleans will need to slip up on the road against Carolina, who has only won two of its past 10 games and currently has a 5-10 record. Under this scenario, Seattle and Green Bay would be tied for the top record in the NFC and due to tiebreakers, the Seahawks would earn the first seed due to a better record against common opponents. They have gone 5-0 against the 49ers, Buccaneers, Vikings, Falcons, and Eagles, while the Packers have gone 4-1 against those same teams.
Both the Packers and Saints will be heavily favored and the odds of both teams losing next weekend are slim, but if that happens and the Seahawks win, they will vault into the top spot and earn a bye week. This would give them home field advantage throughout the playoffs.
How Seahawks Could Earn No. 2 Seed
Again, Seattle won't improve its standing without a victory in Arizona, but there are two ways they can lock up the second seed.
First, if Green Bay beats Chicago and New Orleans loses in Carolina, the standings would shake out with the Packers as the top seed at 13-3, the Seahawks as the second seed at 12-4, and the Saints rounding out the top three with an 11-5 record. This option would eliminate any possible tiebreakers.
The second alternative is a bit more complicated. Since Seattle didn't play New Orleans or Green Bay this year, if all three teams wound up with 12-4 records, head-to-head results wouldn't matter in tiebreakers. Instead, conference record would be the first tiebreaker and the Saints would hold the advantage after beating the Panthers, giving them the top seed. The Seahawks and Packers would have the same 9-3 conference record and common opponents would be next in line, giving Seattle the No. 2 seed and Green Bay the No. 3 seed as a result.
In either scenario, Seattle would host the No. 7 seed in the wild card round. It would also set up a second home playoff game at Lumen Field if the team advances to the divisional round.
How Seahawks Stay at No. 3 Seed
If the Seahawks lose to the 49ers, they will stay at the No. 3 seed. If all three teams win, the Packers will hold the top spot with a 13-3 record and the Saints will hold the tiebreaker over the Seahawks due to a better conference record.
In either instance, Seattle would still host a playoff game against the No. 6 seed and would have home field advantage against the No. 4, No. 5, and No. 7 seed throughout the playoffs. If New Orleans somehow lost in the wild card round and Seattle advanced, a second game at Lumen Field would be on tap.
What's the Preference?
Ultimately, the Seahawks would love to have dominos fall their way and jump into the top seed to earn a bye week.
But while odds of that happening are slim, earning either the No. 2 or No. 3 seed could create favorable wild card matchups. As the No. 2 seed, Seattle would host either Arizona or Chicago, two teams with seven losses apiece heading into Week 17. That would seem like the ideal scenario if they have to play on wild card weekend. If they remain the No. 3 seed, the Seahawks would host the Rams, Buccaneers, or Cardinals. Based on record and talent, Tampa Bay would be the worst draw of that bunch with Tom Brady and Russell Wilson dueling in the Pacific Northwest.
