Analysis: Third Downs 'Tell the Story' of Seahawks' Recent Defensive Woes
The Vikings punted twice against the Seahawks on Sunday: once following a three-and-out on their second drive of the game, and again with just 29 seconds left in regulation. Their other six possessions resulted in either a field goal or touchdown, most importantly eating 33 minutes and six seconds off the clock.
How did they do it? Primarily by keeping drives alive on third down, converting eight of 12 attempts in their eventual 30-17 win. Third downs have been a problem area for a struggling Seattle defense, which is seemingly being plagued by schematic and philosophical issues at the moment.
"[The Vikings] held the football and did a nice job of keeping it away," head coach Pete Carroll told reporters on Monday. "If you had told me that we would give up nine points in the second half then I would have felt pretty good about that but not with the way it happened because our offense wasn’t able to get on the field."
Through the first three weeks of the season, the Seahawks are tied with the Bears for the sixth-highest third down conversion rate allowed (48.78%). As a result, opposing offenses—particularly the Titans and Vikings—have been able to lengthen and sustain drives, pushing Seattle down to a league-worst 23 minutes average time of possession.
The down and distance splits are legitimately concerning. When the Seahawks have been fortunate enough to force a third down, their opponents have often worked themselves into advantageous situations. Per NFL GSIS, Seattle has allowed the second-most 3rd and 1 opportunities in the league (six) thus far, giving up first downs on all six tries, and have played 24 snaps in total on 3rd and 5 or shorter. In all, teams are a striking 15-of-24 in those instances.
A great deal of damage is being done on first and second down. In 1st and 10 situations, the Seahawks are giving up a whopping 631 yards—265 on the ground and 366 through the air. And even when they've won on first down and gotten opposing offenses into favorable spots, they've shown little ability to keep the pressure on. On second downs with 11-15 yards to go, teams have gained 78 yards (8.6 per attempt) and four first downs against Seattle.
Those struggles have extended into 3rd and long situations as well. In 10 third down attempts of 10 yards or more, teams have successfully moved the chains thrice. One of those conversions resulted in a touchdown: a 15-yard connection between Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins and Adam Thielen, who beat Seahawks cornerback D.J. Reed on a post route on 3rd and 13.
That play, of course, was made possible due to another failed third down by Seattle's defense. Earlier in the drive, defensive end Rasheem Green recorded a would-be drive-killing sack of Cousins on 3rd and 3 from Minnesota's 22-yard line. But instead, nickel corner Ugo Amadi was flagged for an unnecessary defensive holding penalty that awarded the Vikings an automatic first down.
Frankly, that's when the momentum in this game truly shifted. After the penalty, the Vikings meticulously drove down the field for eight more plays before Thielen found the end zone to cut the Seahawks' lead to three points. And from that point forward, their remaining drives played out in similar fashion.
Seattle's offense, on the other hand, recorded just nine minutes and 50 seconds of possession following kicker Jason Myers' missed 44-yard field goal attempt. It struggled to generate any sort of rhythm as the defense continuously failed to get off the field.
"[The Vikings] had three long drives," Carroll continued. "Those were long possessions and we are sitting there and waiting. I think the offense had the ball twice and then got the ball back with 4:30 in the game. That’s third down conversions on both sides of the ball and we have to work together much better than that. It tells the story unfortunately."
As long as their current cornerback situation stands, the Seahawks are unlikely to shut down any offense in the NFL. But they certainly have the talent to limit the damage and need to start doing so immediately. That starts with getting off the field on third downs and minimizing the amount of backbreaking, momentum-swinging conversions teams like the Vikings have consistently made against them in 2021.
