Analysis: What Would It Cost Seahawks to Trade Up From Pick No. 40?
Pittsburgh's Kenny Pickett was the only quarterback taken in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft, heading to the Steelers at pick No. 20. That leaves Liberty's Malik Willis, Cincinnati's Desmond Ridder, Ole Miss' Matt Corral and North Carolina's Sam Howell on the board heading into day two of the event.
After filling their need at left tackle with Mississippi State product Charles Cross on Thursday night, the Seahawks still have several glaring holes along their roster, namely at quarterback. Stocked with two picks within the first nine selections of Friday night's continuation of the draft, they look poised to come away with one of the aforementioned young passers if they so desire.
However, if Seattle has its sights particularly set on someone like Willis or Ridder, waiting until its back-to-back picks at No. 40 and No. 41 come around may prove too risky of a venture. Other seemingly quarterback-needy teams like the Falcons (No. 43), Lions (No. 46) and Saints (No. 49) loom shortly after the Seahawks pick and could leapfrog them with a trade. There is also the possibility that any of the Buccaneers (No. 33), Vikings (No. 34), Titans (No. 35), Giants (No. 36) and Texans (No. 37) could make a surprise play for a quarterback as well.
Assuming the Seahawks want either Ridder or Willis, what would it cost to ensure they land one? First and foremost, they have more than enough capital to execute a deal without sacrificing a major portion of their 2022 or 2023 efforts; and frankly, a move up—even in the most extreme of possibilities—should not require much in return, considering how close to the top of the second round they already are.
Going off the Rich Hill trade value chart, Seattle's pick at No. 40 (149 points) and its fourth-rounder at No. 109 (32 points) should be enough to jump to Tampa Bay's spot at No. 33 (180 points). Here are a few alternatives for some of the subsequent picks:
- Trade picks No. 40 and No. 109 (181 points) to Vikings for picks No. 34 and No. 191 (181 points)
- Trade picks No. 40 and No. 109 (181 points) to Titans for picks No. 35 and No. 163 (179 points)
- Trade picks No. 40 and No. 109 (181 points) to Giants for picks No. 36 and No. 147 (180 points)
- Trade picks No. 40 and No. 145 (163 points) to Texans for pick No. 37 (162 points)
The Seahawks could also pull from their 2023 selections to make a move. They have two firsts and two seconds next draft, which makes the idea of parting with their 2023 third-round pick an easier pill to swallow than it would in most years.
The general rule of thumb for evaluating future picks with the trade chart is to knock the pick value down by a round. In this case, Seattle's 2023 third-rounder would roughly fall around the 32-point range on the Hill trade chart. Basically, with most of the trades listed above, this selection would replace pick No. 109, which comes in at 32 points.
That way, the Seahawks wouldn't have to trade out of this year's fourth round or subtract one of their eight picks entirely in order to move up. It's a little less straightforward and would certainly cause for some hesitation from general manager John Schneider and company, but it's an option to mull over.
