Analysis: With Seahawks and Texans Moving Franchise QBs, Who Received a Better Haul?

Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson will be wearing different uniforms in 2022, leaving their former teams with major question marks at quarterback. Which team capitalized the most off of dealing their franchise signal caller?

Continuing a recent trend of franchise quarterbacks landing with new teams via trade, the Seahawks and Texans moved Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson for a boatload of draft picks in separate trades to the Broncos and Browns earlier this month, creating shockwaves throughout the league.

By moving Wilson, Seattle will enter the 2022 season seeking a new quarterback for the first time in a decade and numerous questions on both sides of the football. As for Houston, after Watson didn't play a single snap last year due to legal issues and a previous trade demand, the organization hopes to have its future quarterback already on the roster in Davis Mills with assets to add talent to a barren roster.

Looking at each respective trade and the compensation acquired in return, which franchise received a better haul for jettisoning their star quarterback?

Case for Seahawks

Even though Schneider's hands were tied by Wilson's no trade clause and he likely could have netted even more compensation if the quarterback didn't limit the Seahawks to one suitor, he still managed to wrangle the Broncos out of four picks in the first two rounds over the next two drafts. This includes the No. 9 overall pick, which the Rich Hill trade chart values at 1,350 points, or 200 points more than the No. 13 overall pick the Texans received from the Browns this year.

In terms of immediate impact, the Seahawks now have two premium picks early in the second round. Already slated to pick No. 41 overall, they received selection No. 40 from the Broncos, which is worth 500 points on the Rich Hill trade chart. On top of that, they will have an extra fifth-round pick at their disposal this year valued at 29 points, pushing their total number of picks to eight. So for this year, Seattle received 1,879 points in additional draft value compared to Houston, which received only 1,150 points from one pick coming back this year.

Putting a cherry on top, Seattle will have two first rounders and two second rounders in 2023 that could be used to move up and get a quarterback if the organization doesn't address the position this year. Schneider turned into Sonny Weaver Jr. from Draft Day by persuading Denver general manager George Paton to agree on adding versatile defensive lineman Shelby Harris, former first-round tight end Noah Fant, and 25-year old quarterback Drew Lock to further sweeten the deal.

Unloading Wilson didn't help the Seahawks from a cap perspective this season with two years left under contract. However, the organization will reap the benefit of not having his massive contract on the books next season with a projected $117 million in available cap room that can be used to aggressively seek out talent in free agency and through the trade market.

Case for Texans

All along, Caserio reportedly wouldn't trade Watson without three first-round picks coming back in return at minimum. With multiple teams bidding for his services, he didn't have to work too hard to check off that box and once the quarterback had agreed to terms on an extension with the Browns, he was able to acquire those three premium picks for 2022, 2023, and 2024.

Even if Cleveland wins a bunch of games and those picks end up being late in the first round, six first-round picks over the next three years gives Houston tremendous flexibility to add talent. Caserio should be well-positioned to draft a bunch of blue chip players and/or move picks for proven veteran stars once the team draws closer to contending in the AFC South.

While the Texans didn't manage to squeeze the Browns out of any other 2022 draft picks, they did acquire a third rounder for 2023 and a fourth rounder for 2024. Those picks may offer the greatest value if Caserio wants to trade up in the first round in one of those drafts to land a coveted prospect. Again, it's all about flexibility.

Though the team didn't acquire any quality veterans as part of the deal, Houston will eat a significantly smaller dead cap number ($16.2 million) with Watson's departure than Seattle will absorb with Wilson's exit ($26 million). Caserio has $31 million in cap room at his disposal to use on veterans to help expedite the franchise's rebuild around a promising young quarterback in Mills.

Final Verdict

Like any trade involving a bunch of future draft picks, nobody will know which team fared better in their respective deal until several years down the road when there is a chance to evaluate the players selected with those picks. For that reason alone, it's way too early to have any idea which team will benefit most from the decision to trade away a Pro Bowl quarterback.

Looking at both trades today, however, the Seahawks were able to land significantly more overall value in exchange for Wilson than Caserio and the Texans were for Watson. They acquired four picks in the first two rounds from a Broncos squad that could still have a tough time battling for a playoff berth in a brutal AFC West division featuring the Chiefs, Chargers, and Raiders next year. The Browns don't play in an easy division either, though their opponents haven't stocked up on elite talent this offseason as the three aforementioned teams have.

In addition, Fant and Harris should be immediate contributors for Seattle and Lock stands out as a true wild card if he can rediscover his rookie form, which really puts its return haul over the top compared to Houston's trade package that doesn't have any veterans coming back in return. With plenty of talent still on their roster such as Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, and Jamal Adams, while the Texans have an intriguing young quarterback in Mills to build around, the Seahawks should be better equipped to rebound quickly of the two teams and now have the capital in place to rebuild a long-term contender.