Could Seahawks' Quarterback Search Lead Them to Familiar Face?
The Seahawks need a quarterback, this much we know. And thus far, there has been no shortage of names being thrown around from fans and analysts alike. From Deshaun Watson to Jamies Winston, from Baker Mayfield to Matt Ryan, just about any quarterback with a pulse has, at this point, been linked to Seattle. But there's been one omission from the discourse who actually makes some sense: Jared Goff.
Once we stop collectively cringing from the mere utterance of Goff's name, we need to acknowledge that there are some fairly reasonable arguments for such a move to be made. He is young and has had success in the system Shane Waldron wants to run. In fact, Goff was so successful in the system that he led the Rams to a 42-20 record after the arrival of head coach Sean McVay. The former No. 1 draft pick led the Rams to two division titles, one wild-card appearance and Super Bowl LIII, all while posting solid numbers. In his 62 starts with McVay, Goff threw for 102 touchdowns and 48 interceptions while completing 64 percent of his passes (including a then career-high 67 percent mark in 2020) and averaging 4,200 yards passing per 17 games played.
After being shipped to the Lions in the Matthew Stafford trade, Goff still posted solid numbers with a massively inferior group surrounding him. In 14 starts, Goff threw for 3,245 yards, completed 67.2 percent of his passes and posted a 19:8 touchdown to interception ratio. Goff checks a lot of the boxes of what Pete Carroll describes as his ideal quarterback, particularly the idea that the quarterback should act as a “point guard," distributing the ball to the open man and making plays when absolutely necessary.
Goff also plays better from under center and has been one of the better play-action quarterbacks in the NFL throughout his career. He earned a 60.7 grade from Pro Football Focus in 2021, but has consistently earned grades in the low-70s throughout his career.
The simple truth is: Goff is likely better than you or I are willing to give him credit for.
However, there is a lot working against this potential union, not the least of which is Goff’s murky contract status. The California alum is set to earn a $10 million base salary in 2022 and has a $15 million roster bonus set to be paid out on March 19. The roster bonus has already been guaranteed, so Goff would, in theory, cost the Seahawks $26 million against the salary cap in 2022. However, there is some grey area that could allow for the Seahawks to rework a deal that could land Goff in the $15-$16 million cap hit area, which would certainly be preferable. Goff’s 2023 cap hit would be $26 million, but would also come with just a $5 million dead cap hit should Seattle decide to cut him.
Goff would almost certainly be looked at as a stopgap quarterback for Carroll and the Seahawks; and if that’s the route Seattle is looking to go, simply signing Marcus Mariota, Ryan Fitzpatrick or Wintson would likely be a cheaper route to take while achieving similar production to Goff. Trading for a stopgap only makes sense if you believe you can win a Super Bowl with the quarterback or if you believe the stopgap could become the long-term starter. Neither seems to apply to Goff.
There may be one way to offset these issues and it requires a bit of creativity. Similar to the Carson Wentz trade, if the Lions are desperate to move Goff, then taking on his salary to move up in the draft could be a viable strategy. But herein lies another problem: the Lions own pick No. 2 in the draft this year, while Seattle holds pick No. 9. In a draft without any top-10 quarterback talents (though one may very well still get drafted inside the top 10 selections), the gap between what is available at No. 2 and what is available at No. 9 isn’t large. This particular draft doesn’t have an obvious upper tier, making a swap of first-round picks less likely. The Seahawks could try to move up from pick No. 40 or 41 to No. 34, but adding $26 million of salary to move up 6 spots in the second round is a difficult pill to swallow.
The bottom line on Goff is a bit nuanced. There are some surprising benefits to the idea and not all of them take tremendous leaps of faith to wrap your mind around them. However, the salary cap hit is a major issue, particularly for a player who is incredibly unlikely to be a long-term fix for the Seahawks. At the end of the day, the Seahawks are better off acquiring one of the free agent options, or trading for Baker Mayfield, Gardner Minshew or Matt Ryan. Seattle has also been linked to draft prospects Malik Willis, Matt Corral and Desmond Ridder, each of whom appears to have a better chance of being “the guy” than Goff. There’s a non-zero chance that Drew Lock could be Waldron’s Goff and the difference likely isn’t enough to justify the salary cap hit.
Goff could make some sense for the Seahawks. But he simply doesn’t make more sense than many of the other options currently available. The Lions can keep Goff and use him in 2022, allowing him to prove if he is the guy or to be used as a stopgap for a player they draft in April. Overall, a deal is highly unlikely to be made and is even unlikely to be discussed. But the Seahawks will look under many rocks this spring, and there is an outside chance that Goff is the guy they ultimately land on.
