Have Seahawks Made Right Choice to Wait Out Free Agency?
Free agency officially started this week, and so far, the Seahawks have been rather quiet.
We don’t know whether Jadeveon Clowney will remain a Seahawk this fall, an unnerving uncertainty that raises questions for next season’s defense. George Fant and Quinton Jefferson have already left to pursue lucrative contracts with other teams, affecting the offensive and defensive lines. Todd Gurley would have been a welcome addition to alternate among Seattle’s running elite, but he’s already been snatched up by the Falcons.
As free agency moves forward, the superstars are more likely to be gone - but perhaps that’s not a bad thing.
In fact, it may be wiser to sign lesser-known players during this time and strengthen the team throughout, potentially scoring compensatory picks for next year’s draft.
That’s exactly what the Seahawks are doing and though it hasn't always worked out as planned, have done for years under the direction of general manager John Schneider.
So far, the Seahawks have signed B.J. Finney, Bruce Irvin, Brandon Shell, Cedric Ogbuehi, and most notably Greg Olsen back in February. They’ve also re-signed Jarran Reed and Luke Wilson, while placing tenders on Jacob Hollister, Joey Hunt, Branden Jackson and David Moore.
What can we gather from these moves so far?
It seems the Seahawks are investing in their offensive line, defensive line, and tight end group, all of which pave the way for an exciting and successful campaign next season.
Tight ends offer blocking and passing options, and with a tight-end trio of Dissly, Hollister, and Olsen, the Seahawks offense can mask their plays with ease. Having two more potential receiving threats at the position running out of multiple formations makes the Seahawks offense that much tougher to cover. There’s also a sizable running back committee that can benefit from the tight end and offensive line blocks that clear the way. Let’s not forget who can benefit the most from increased blocking: Russell Wilson, who will become even more dangerous with more time in the pocket.
Good offensive linemen are surprisingly hard to come by in today's NFL, and picking one up in free agency is even harder. The Seahawks have already signed three free agents in the trenches, while also tendering Hunt to bring him back. With such a heavy investment in Wilson, the highest paid quarterback to date, it only makes sense to solidify his offensive line.
While it’s possible to score a budding talent in the draft, offensive linemen tend to go early, and there’s no guarantee that one - let alone multiple - draft picks will work out in the long run. Avoiding a deal like the $8 million offered to Luke Joeckel in 2017, signing multiple affordable, yet competent offensive linemen during free agency is a smart move even if fans aren't necessarily in love with those choices.
The Seahawks are also invested in building up their defense, splurging on Jarran Reed for a two-year, $23 million contract. Bruce Irvin will be re-joining the team as well next season, which could create an unstoppable pass rush attack if Clowney stays in Seattle and the team manages to sign Everson Griffen.
After free agency, the draft provides an opportunity to draft defensive linemen, as the Seahawks did by choosing Quinton Jefferson in the fifth round of the 2016 draft. Seattle has drafted plenty of defensive line talent in the past decade, but it’s hard to re-sign their players - there’s almost always another team willing to pay more. The team also has had some big whiffs in that department recently, including the unfortunate Malik McDowell saga.
The formula for a team to stay on top in the NFL long-term is simple to say, but nearly impossible to execute: don’t overpay; focus on improving the entire team, draft well… and wait in free agency. There’s two scenarios to look at when considering whether or not it’s better to wait for free agents.
The teams that made it to the 2018 Super Bowl took different approaches to team-building during the offseason. Bill Belichick does what he always does, which is to let some of his best players leave, wait for scraps, and hope for the best. The Rams, however, made big signings that year, hoping to make it to the Super Bowl. They traded for Marcus Peters, Aqib Talib, and Brandin Cooks, while also signing Ndamukong Suh. Those four players joined the team for over $100 million altogether.
Both teams made the Super Bowl, but by the next season, Suh, Talib, and Peters were gone. The Patriots too have lost a lot of their talent to manage cap space, capping off in their loss of Tom Brady this year, but they still won 12 games because their approach is more sustainable. Both these teams made the Super Bowl two seasons ago, but it’s almost impossible to make it two years in a row - Seahawks fans are lucky enough to know what that’s like. A deciding factor in the next few seasons is deciding who to add and keep right now.
As far as the formula goes, the Seahawks have made solid choices for the most part, which has led them to the playoffs eight times in the past decade. They’ve been balancing their cap space around Wilson’s record-breaking contract since last April, but have still focused on building the team around him through drafting and free agency. The Seahawks have $18.296 million in cap space according to OverTheCap.com, which will make it challenging to re-sign stars like Clowney and add other talented players without cutting other veterans.
But the Seahawks have eight draft picks this year, including three compensatory picks from losing players like Earl Thomas last year. Five of eleven picks from the 2019 draft made names for themselves as starters, while four out of nine picks from 2018 remain starters and the coaching staff remains high on that group of players. If they can hit on a few more prospects in April, it could extend Seattle's Super Bowl window for several seasons.
Sure, fans are patiently waiting for news of a big signing, or a blockbuster trade - it’s thrilling to imagine Yannick Ngakoue rushing off the edge in a Seahawks uniform and fans were able to celebrate a similar occasion with the Clowney trade last season. But if they only keep Clowney and don’t sign or trade for any other big names this year, it’s not necessarily a bad thing - it may even be a sign of better things to come.
