Is Carlos Dunlap Really a One Year Band-Aid for Seahawks' Pass Rush?
You won't find anybody who thinks the Seahawks didn't receive a tremendous value when they acquired Carlos Dunlap from the Bengals for a backup lineman and a seventh-round pick. For little compensation, he should help improve a porous defense down the stretch as Seattle attempts to win its second Super Bowl in the Pete Carroll era.
But could Dunlap help the team in 2021?
It's important to remember that Dunlap is not a rental. He is under contract for the 2021 season. The assumption has been that Dunlap will be released following the 2020 season and it is a fair assumption. With the salary cap projected to drop by $25 million thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic (also known as pure greed from the owners), the Seahawks will need to cut salary somewhere along the line.
According to Over The Cap, the Seahawks will enter the offseason next spring with nearly $19 million of cap space to maneuver with. However, Dunlap carries an $11.1 million cap hit with no dead money, which makes the 31-year old an easy cap casualty. But will that actually be the case?
Consider the following: the Seahawks are going to need defensive end help in 2021. Even if Rasheem Green returns and takes strides after his 2019 season and L.J. Collier continues to flash this season, neither is in the same league as Dunlap. In addition to the 5-tech uncertainty, Benson Mayowa is set to become a free agent and we haven't seen enough from Alton Robinson to project him as a starter. We haven't gotten to see anything from Darrell Taylor yet either.
The Seahawks will lack a first-round pick and will likely make their first pick in the 55-64 range and that is if they don't trade down. And with just four picks in the upcoming draft, a trade down is going to be on the table. But it remains entirely possible that John Schneider decides he needs to clear cap space to add to the roster. At that point, what choice does Seattle have but to cut Dunlap?
As the Chiefs have shown, however, the salary cap is a bit of a mirage. There is no shortage of ways to create cap space, including renegotiating with terms of a player under contract. Russell Wilson, Bobby Wagner, and even Dunlap himself could be candidates. Seattle could also decide to part ways with Duane Brown and clear the $11 million that way. Jamal Adams is set to make $9 million in 2021 and is going to get a brand new contract. Seattle can actually lower his cap hit in year one and backload the contract towards a time when the salary cap returns to normal.
At the end of the day, the most likely scenario is that Dunlap plays nine games for the Seahawks, plus the playoffs, and the two sides part ways in the spring. But there is a decent argument to be made that a longer term relationship between Dunlap and the Seahawks makes a lot of sense and you don't need to sprint too hard to find it.
Dunlap will need to play well for the remainder of the season for this discussion to even be relevant, but based on his track record, Seattle needs to be prepared for that reality. He may very well end up as a rental, but the door cannot be slammed shut on the possible reality that he will be around past 2020 with the Seahawks.
