Breaking Down Seahawks Playoff Scenarios Entering Week 16
The Seahawks officially punched their ticket to the postseason on Sunday with their 11 victory of the season against the Panthers in Carolina.
Thanks to an unexpected loss by the 49ers at home to the Falcons, the Seahawks also jumped back to the top of the NFC West and ascended to the first overall seed in the NFC by holding a tiebreaker over the Saints and Packers.
But with two games left to play, Seattle hasn’t locked up the division or a first-round bye just yet.
Putting it simply, the Seahawks need to win to their final two games and finish 13-3 to ensure they play at least one playoff home game. To keep the top seed in the conference, the Packers would need to win out or the Saints would need to lose one of their last two games against the Titans and Panthers to drop to 12-4 on the season.
Though it’s possible Seattle could lose to San Francisco in Week 17 and still win the division, depending on next week’s results, the season finale is shaping up to be a winner-take-all NFC West championship game.
To make scenario a reality, Seattle would need to beat Arizona and San Francisco would need to lose to the Los Angeles Rams in Week 16. That would set up a matchup between the Seahawks (12-3) and 49ers (11-4) at CenturyLink Field that would surely be flexed into prime time.
If the Seahawks were to win that rematch and sweep the season series, there’s no drama. They’re the division champions and likely will get a week off to rest. But if they lose, both teams would have equal 12-4 records and a series of tiebreakers would be used to determine an NFC West champion.
The first tiebreaker is head-to-head matchups, which would be split. Both teams would also be 4-2 within the division, 9-3 in games against common opponents, and 9-3 in conference games, which leads us to the complicated strength of victory tiebreaker.
As it currently stands, the Seahawks have a slight advantage with a .471 strength of victory percentage, as the teams they’ve beaten have won a combined 72 games this season. The 49ers 11 victories have come against teams who have won a combined 68 games.
But if Seattle drops the season finale, San Francisco would gain a whopping 12 victories to add to its total. Even with Seattle picking up four wins by beating Arizona and one win by beating San Francisco earlier in the season, they’d still be behind their divisional rival by three wins (80 to 77).
Can this number be improved? Absolutely. Seattle fans should be pulling for the Eagles, Vikings, and Falcons to finish strong, as those are non-common opponents who the Seahawks beat earlier and would add wins to their strength of victory totals. Losses by the Packers, Redskins, and Saints would also help their cause, as those are non-common wins for the 49ers.
But even in the best-case scenario, as shown above, the Seahawks couldn’t clinch an NFC West title next weekend. With that said, if the Falcons, Eagles, and Titans were able to win, it would certainly help their cause going into the final week by adding three wins to their strength of victory totals.
Expanding on this scenario, there is a way Seattle could clinch the division before playing on Sunday night. Even if the Saints and Rams win as projected, victories by the Vikings, Eagles, and Cowboys would put the Seahawks 12 wins ahead of the 49ers on strength of victory.
As shown on the chart above, no matter the outcome, the Seahawks would have at least one more win by the end of the night to lock up the title.
Ultimately, there are a billion scenarios that could play out the next two weeks. Rather than hope other teams can help them and bank on the Rams to upset the 49ers, the Seahawks best chance to win the division and earn a bye will come from winning the last two games. Any other result will most likely mean a road game as a wild card team.
