Busting the Myth: Seahawks QB Russell Wilson Has Ice in His Veins
Back on Dec. 11, 2016, the Seahawks were three-point favorites when they traveled to Green Bay with an 8-3-1 record against a struggling 6-6 Packers squad.
It was Seattle's first game without star safety Earl Thomas, who broke his leg against Carolina the previous week, and the Packers raced out to a 21-3 lead midway through the second quarter, forcing the Seahawks to start airing it out with Russell Wilson in an effort to claw back into the game.
Under siege and receiving minimal help from his skill players, Wilson endured his worst start as an NFL quarterback, throwing a career-high five interceptions and posting a 43.7 passer rating in a 38-10 blowout defeat at Lambeau Field.
The loss marked the second poor performance by Wilson in frigid conditions in less than a calendar year. Though they held on for a 10-9 win in the previous season's wild-card round, Wilson threw for just 142 yards in below zero temperatures against the Vikings.
Those two outings gave Wilson a reputation as a quarterback who couldn’t produce in cold weather, an odd development considering his immense success starring for the Wisconsin Badgers in 2011. But is that narrative actually true?
Looking back at Wilson's entire NFL career, the statistics paint a different picture.
As written in an earlier piece, the majority of Wilson’s interceptions against the Packers three years ago weren’t even his fault. His receivers failed to catch some of his accurately thrown passes, and had they done so, the game and Wilson's legacy in the cold could've been far different. The Seahawks actually moved the ball rather consistently that afternoon, and it was those untimely turnovers that ultimately led to their undoing.
Regardless, Wilson has actually been outstanding in cold weather throughout his eight-year NFL career, throwing 28 touchdowns and just 12 interceptions in games played at 40-degree temperatures or cooler. In those games, he's averaged more than 2.5 touchdowns per contest.
Playing in Seattle, Wilson has started numerous home games at CenturyLink Field with kickoff temperatures below 40 degrees and excelled. In a shootout win over Pittsburgh during the 2015 season, for example, he threw for 345 yards and five touchdown passes to outduel Ben Roethlisberger. The temperature was 37 degrees.
During that same season in the midst of a ludicrous stretch where Wilson threw 24 touchdowns and just one interception in the final seven games, he also lit up the Vikings at TCF Bank Stadium with 274 passing yards and three touchdown passes. The temperature? 37 degrees.
Heading into Sunday’s upcoming divisional round matchup in Green Bay, there’s only a 10% chance of precipitation in the forecast and temperatures are expected to be in the low 20s. The lack of snow is always a good thing for quarterbacks, but the chilly temperatures will be a factor nonetheless.
If there’s a cutoff line where Wilson hasn’t been as effective, it looks to be 26 degrees or cooler. Including his five-pick disaster at Lambeau, he’s played in three career games in such conditions and completed just 56.7% of his pass attempts while throwing four touchdowns and six interceptions.
Wilson did play well in Kansas City during the 2014 season, throwing two touchdown passes in a 24-20 loss to the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium, with a wind chill factor making it feel like 10 degrees. The quarterback also rushed for 71 yards on eight carries in that game, so he’s clearly capable of playing at a high level in such environments.
Based on past history, even with his personal struggles at Lambeau well-known, the idea that cold weather is Wilson’s kryptonite is little more than fiction. Two of his three losses in Green Bay came in September, well before winter weather hits Titletown.
Considering how banged up the Seahawks are at running back and along the offensive line, if Wilson struggles again, it’ll likely be because of the attrition around him and the presence of a solid, well-coached Packers defense, not because he can see his breath on the frozen tundra.
