One Statistic Confirms Seahawks QB Geno Smith Played Far Better Than Preseason Numbers Suggest
In the eyes of many experts and fans, Geno Smith won the Seahawks starting quarterback gig this summer by default due to Drew Lock's struggles and a lost opportunity from a bout with COVID-19 more than earning the job on his own merit. Some would question whether or not the team actually held a legitimate competition and that premise can certainly be debated and scrutinized.
At the center of this argument, critics will point to the fact Smith didn't throw a single touchdown pass and completed just 58 percent of his pass attempts on 13 offensive possessions during the preseason. Or that Seattle converted on only four out of 15 third down conversion attempts in three exhibition contests, which prevented the offense from sustaining drives.
But based on film study and other factors, all three of these arguments are tired ones that aren't based off of reality, at least in terms of blaming Smith for the pitfalls that doomed the Seahawks on offense over the past month. Based off of one statistic alone, he should be applauded for finding a way to lead four scoring drives given the lack of support from skill players in the passing game.
According to Pro Football Focus, Seattle's receivers dropped seven of Smith's 16 incompletions during the preseason. Roughly a quarter of his total pass attempts, that means nearly 50 percent of those misfires were thrown on the money and the wideouts simply didn't do the job they are paid to do.
Even worse, several of those drops came on passes that would have gone for first down yardage and yielded a new set of downs. In Seattle's exhibition opener against Pittsburgh, for example, Smith delivered a perfect strike on a slant to receiver Bo Melton on 3rd and 6, but the ball bounced off of the rookie's hands and the drive stalled near midfield with under three minutes left to play in the first half.
One week later, on the Seahawks first drive against the Bears, Smith was let down by his receivers once again. Blessed with an outstanding pocket and time to scan the field after the offensive line stifled a twist stunt, the veteran signal caller stepped up in the pocket on 3rd and 5 and fired a bullet to Freddie Swain on a 20-yard dig route. Unfortunately, the throw went right through the receiver's hands, forcing a Michael Dickson punt on a three-and-out.
These struggles weren't limited to throws that would have moved the chains, however. Points were erased off the board as a result.
Early in the second quarter of the same game, shortly after Smith hooked up with Penny Hart on a 41-yard vertical down the left sideline, he threw a well-placed fade route to rookie Dareke Young just short of the goal line. The seventh-round pick initially looked to have made the catch, but he wasn't able to maintain possession through the ground with the corner in coverage knocking the ball out.
Three plays later, kicker Jason Myers missed from 47 yards on a field goal attempt, leaving the Seahawks with a donut on the scoreboard. While Young's miss wasn't charged as a drop by PFF, it was a play the young wideout certainly expects to make and not reeling it in contributed to the drive netting zero points.
Then in the exhibition finale in Dallas, Smith had a pair of passes dropped by Young and tight end Will Dissly in his lone drive of action. While he overcame those drops and a holding penalty against guard Phil Haynes to lead Seattle to three points thanks to two long completions to Tyler Lockett, the possession served as a microcosm for his preseason putting the ball right on receivers' hands only for them to fail to make the catch.
Accounting for the high volume of drops that hindered his completion percentage and yardage totals while likely eliminating chances to score touchdowns on sustained drives, PFF gave Smith the fourth-highest grade (90.4) among quarterbacks this preseason. Six of the seven drops came on non-play action passes and his elite 88.8 grade on those concepts reflects that despite having a 57 percent completion rate.
Most interestingly, Smith received an outstanding 99.9 grade on passes of 20-plus yards even though he only completed one out of four such attempts. PFF gave him a perfect big time throw percentage, classifying all four throws as "passes with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window." Two of those passes were the poor drop by Swain and Young's missed red zone opportunity against Chicago.
This evaluation coupled with film observation confirms Smith was the better deep ball passer this preseason in comparison to Lock, a major feather in his cap as coach Pete Carroll waited to choose a successor for Russell Wilson. Already holding an advantage given his knowledge of offensive coordinator Shane Waldron's scheme and his reliability taking care of the football, it's no wonder Lock wasn't able to gain traction in the competition.
Adding in the fact untimely penalties always seemed to crop up when the Seahawks approached the red zone coupled with the horrendous drop rates, it's abundantly clear Smith was nipped by bad luck more than anything this month and can't be judged fairly based on raw numbers alone. While it can be debated whether or not Lock received a fair shake, that had to be held in consideration by Carroll and his coaching staff as they ultimately made their decision on a Week 1 starter.
