Will Seahawks Be More Aggressive on Fourth Down in 2020?
Football is a game that is constantly evolving and always in motion. From the Wing-T offense, to the introduction to the forward pass, to the spread offense, things change and sometimes never look back.
One of the modern strategies in football is to be more aggressive on fourth down, for a host of reasons. One is teams are less inclined to punt it over to the other team's offense, which likely is an advanced, spread attack that scores more points than offenses of past NFL eras. Also, coaches have more faith in their own offenses as quarterback play has never been better than today's NFL. Another is the analytics, which have discovered that going for fourth-and-short is better than punting the ball to your opposition when thinking about win probability.
Pete Carroll has always been a conundrum of a coach. He is currently the oldest head coach in the league at 68 years old. However, his demeanor and happy-go-lucky personality suggest he is actually 20 years younger in spirit. His ability to connect with players who are decades and decades younger than himself is unparalleled in this business. He is one of the best "player's coaches" in the game. Yet, he holds on to many philosophies that most regard as "old school" such as playing stout defense and running the ball with beautiful brutality.
To his credit, these philosophies and attitudes have made Carroll one of the most successful football coaches of this millennium, first winning back-to-back national titles at the helm for the USC Trojans. Then, once arriving in Seattle, he brought the squad to their second ever Super Bowl in 2013 and helped them finally bring the Lombardi Trophy home. Not to be understated is the fact that Seattle reached the Super Bowl a second straight year in 2014, only to suffer a heart-wrenching loss. Seattle has missed the playoffs just twice in his 10 years in charge.
One of these philosophies that "old school" coaches cling to is being gun-shy on fourth down. Carroll receives criticism year after year from the pundits of the analytical realm for his lack of boldness on fourth down. Since 2012, Seattle has not finished any higher than 24th the NFL in fourth down attempts. This suggests several possible scoring opportunities were foregone and punted away.
This is all well and fine when your team has the "Legion of Boom," the most feared defense in football trotting on the field after the punt. However, Seattle has not had a top 10 defense since 2016 and this past season saw the worst defense since Carroll's initial season of 2010.
Plus, the Seahawks have, oh, just the most prolific passing quarterback in the NFL in Russell Wilson. All these rationales suggest the squad should be more bold on fourth downs.
Granted, part of the lack of attempts on fourth down is the fact that the Seahawks have improved on offense with their perennial Pro Bowl quarterback and face less fourth downs than worse teams in the league. However, to some extent, Seattle has not trusted Wilson with the offense in enough fourth down situations.
One example is during the 2019 NFC Divisional Round game when Seattle faced a 4th and 11 situation with less than three minutes in the game, down 28-23 to the Packers after staging a mini-comeback to get back within striking distance. Instead of trying to keep the drive, and hopes, alive, Seattle punted the ball to Green Bay, giving former MVP Aaron Rodgers an opportunity to ice the game. He did just that, never allowing Seattle to possess the ball again and the Seahawks watched helplessly as the Packers clinched a berth into the NFC title game.
Carroll offered a response to questions about that situation after the game.
"We were thinking about going for it in that sequence, but not at 4th and 11. We thought our odds were so low. We had all the clock, we had the time, we had all the opportunities to stop them to get the ball back.”
Yes, a 4th and 11 is unlikely to be converted and even the most advanced analytical brains likely punt in that scenario... unless you are playing for your playoff lives. When a team has the best quarterback in football and it's a do-or-die fourth and long in the playoffs, you must go for it. Carroll didn't and Seattle lost.
Perhaps in 2020, with another year to take in numbers and evaluate as coaches, they will feel emboldened to hand the keys to Wilson more often in fourth down situations. The numbers don't lie, teams convert 4th and 1 scenarios almost 70 percent of the time. With the strong running game Seattle has, plus Wilson, they seem to be one of the best-equipped teams in football to convert tough fourth downs and Carroll has to be willing to roll the dice more often to help his team win games.
