Losses of Shaquill Griffin, David Moore Spotlight Troubling Trend For Seahawks

Playing a vital role in the construction of a perennial contender in the NFC West, Seahawks general manager John Schneider enjoyed tremendous success during his first three seasons running the show in large part due to strong drafting.

In his first draft at the helm, Seattle landed two talented first-round picks in tackle Russell Okung and safety Earl Thomas. He also hit a home run selecting receiver Golden Tate and safety Kam Chancellor in the second and fifth rounds, respectively. This group provided the foundation for the franchise's eventual rise to the top of the conference.

Then in 2011, while first round pick James Carpenter struggled to meet expectations, Schneider again hit on several day three picks, selecting linebacker K.J. Wright in the fourth round, cornerbacks Richard Sherman and Byron Maxwell in the fifth and sixth rounds, and linebacker Malcolm Smith in the seventh round. All four players were key contributors on the 2013 Super Bowl championship squad.

Schneider's best draft - and arguably one of the best draft classes in NFL history - came the ensuing year. Though experts dogged the class initially, the Seahawks wound up with two future Hall of Famers on day two of the draft, selecting quarterback Russell Wilson and linebacker Bobby Wagner. Defensive end Bruce Irvin wound up being a solid first round selection and cornerback Jeremy Lane and guard J.R. Sweezy had long, productive careers.

Looking back at those three draft classes, with Irvin, Tate, and Maxwell as exceptions, Seattle managed to retain the vast majority of those players for second and sometimes third contracts. This was a key component for the team's prolonged success over the past decade, as Schneider did an excellent job of keeping the band together by retaining talented homegrown players.

From the 2010 group, Thomas signed a four-year extension in 2014, while Chancellor signed two contracts after his rookie deal expired. For the 2011 group, Wright has signed three contracts and could still return for a fourth this offseason, while Sherman signed a lucrative extension prior to the 2014 season.

As for the renowned 2012 class, Wilson has now signed two record-breaking contracts and remains one of the NFL's highest-paid quarterbacks. Wagner signed a three-year, $54 million extension before the 2019 season and still tops all linebackers for annual salary. Lane received a second contract before eventually being released.

But while the Seahawks have returned to the playoffs in four of the past five years, the team has not been near as successful once they have reached postseason play. At the root of Wilson's frustrations, they have advanced past the wild card round only twice during that span and have not made a return to the NFC Championship Game. In three of those seasons, they were knocked out in the wild card round or did not make the playoffs at all.

There are several reasons for the recent postseason struggles, including chronic slow starts offensively that Seattle has not been able to overcome. But when it comes to building a Super Bowl roster, recent drafting and player development has not helped the franchise's cause and a troubling trend has emerged.

Unlike those first three drafts, Schneider hasn't been near as successful drafting star-caliber players. In fact, there have been far more whiffs than hits over the past seven years, which can be best illustrated by the steep decline in draft picks who have been retained for a second contract and earned Pro Bowl honors.

Draft Years	Number of Players Signed to Second Contract	Percentage of Drafted Players Signed to Second Contract	Number of Combined Pro Bowls
2010-2012	8	29%	29
2013-2015	3	11%	1
2016-2017	2	10%	1

In fairness, asking Schneider to find diamonds in the rough like Wilson, Wagner, and Sherman every year is not realistic. Thanks to consistent winning, the team also has not been well-positioned to add blue chip talent such as Thomas either, often resorting to trading down or out of the first round to recoup later picks.

However, the data does not lie. Schneider and Seattle's front office have struggled mightily to draft difference makers for close to a decade. There have been obvious exceptions, as Tyler Lockett has back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons and Jarran Reed has contributed 19.0 combined sacks over the past three seasons. Both of those players received second contracts and have a good chance of remaining with the organization beyond 2021.

But even with Reed and Lockett, the two players have combined to earn one All-Pro selection and one Pro Bowl nod between them in 11 NFL seasons. Especially in the case of Reed, he's a quality starting defensive tackle who won't be mistaken as elite. The same could be said about Shaquill Griffin, who despite making a Pro Bowl in 2019 had failed to ascend as a top-tier cornerback in four seasons. Thus, the team wasn't willing to pay more than $13 million per year to re-sign him and he took a three-year deal with the Jaguars.

Aside from Reed and Lockett, the Seahawks have only signed three other draft picks since 2013 to a second contract. 44 out of the 49 players drafted by Schneider during that span have been wearing another uniform or out of the league completely before or after their rookie contract expired, including defensive end Frank Clark, who was franchise-tagged and then traded to the Chiefs.

Even worse, even with Chris Carson opting to re-sign on a multi-year deal, Seattle has only given a second contract to three players from the 2016 and 2017 draft classes. Schneider made a grand total of 21 selections in those two years. That's not going to cut it.

Before signing Ethan Pocic and Carson to contracts this week, not a single player from the 2017 class remained on the roster. Griffin and receiver David Moore already signed with other teams in free agency, while safety Lano Hill likely won't be back either. After letting former first-round pick Germain Ifedi walk before the 2020 season, Reed remains the only player on the roster from the 2016 class.

Herein lies the Seahawks biggest issue when it comes to competing with the Packers and other NFC elite in the playoffs. The team has been able to consistently win double-digit regular season games because of Wilson's heroics and quality trades for players such as Quandre Diggs and Carlos Dunlap that helped infuse the roster with veteran talent. Schneider deserves credit for those moves.

But the inability to draft/develop star players and retain them beyond their rookie contract has played a crucial role in Seattle's current lack of resources. Poor drafting led to trades for left tackle Duane Brown, defensive tackle Sheldon Richardson, and safety Jamal Adams, costing the team two first-round picks, two second-round picks, and two third-round picks. The deals for Diggs, Dunlap, and cornerback Quinton Dunbar cost late-round picks as well.

Mired in a bit of a salary cap crisis currently, the Seahawks have also been hurt financially by their drafting woes. With stars such as Wilson and Wagner taking up large chunks of the team's salary cap, rookie contracts are invaluable for filling out the roster with cheap talent. But the team has missed on the vast majority of their picks, which has forced Schneider into consistently signing or trading for veterans to compensate that have chewed up cap room quickly.

These long-term problems fall squarely on the shoulders of Schneider and Seattle's front office. When it comes to talent acquisition through the draft and player retention, they have failed as of late, putting them into the predicament they find themselves in with a frustrated franchise quarterback on the verge of forcing his way out of town and limited resources to improve the roster around him.

Currently, the Seahawks have less than a million dollars in cap room and only three picks in April's draft to work with. Players such as Adams and Lockett have one year left under contract and need extensions. Holes remain aplenty on the roster that must be filled to compete in the NFC West, which has truly become an arms race with all three other teams making big splashes this offseason.

Somehow, Schneider and his counterparts will have to find a way to pull their team out of this hole they helped create. If they can't figure it out, a full-scale rebuild could be coming in 2022.