Steelers 5 Biggest 'What If’s' of the Decade
PITTSBURGH -- Since 2010, the Pittsburgh Steelers have lost a Super Bowl, a conference championship, and four other playoff games. They've had players retire, witnessed one of the most heart-dropping injuries in sports history, and removed two of the best players in the NFL.
But what if these never happened? Take a walk down the five most significant rabbit holes in the last ten years and see what fallouts happen if history changed.
5. What if Jesse James "Made" the Catch?
The Jesse James "catch" isn't the biggest "what if" of the last ten years, but it might be the most aggravating play, maybe ever.
The aftermath of the missed catch doesn't hand the Steelers another Super Bowl ring or put James in the Ring of Honor 20 years from now. But if it's ruled complete, the Steelers beat the New England Patriots, and the NFL doesn't change a rule that should've never existed.
For one, the Steelers could've finished as the top seed in the AFC and kept the momentum going into the playoffs. The AFC Championship could've come through Pittsburgh, and perhaps the legacy of Steelers vs. Tom Brady and the Patriots is a little different.
Does that mean Super Bowl number seven? Who knows.
Then there's the 'survive the ground' rule. If James' catch isn't ruled a drop, Dez Bryant might've never gotten justice, Steelers fans wouldn't continue to look back at the most heartbreaking moment of their fandom, and the NFL is still adjusting to what a catch is.
In the moment, it just changes the outcome of a game, but within a year, what could've been altered the game forever.
4. What if Le'Veon Bell Never Sat Out?
Without the Le'Veon Bell sit out, James Conner doesn't happen. Maybe.
When Bell decided to chase the money in 2018 and not risk injury by sitting out, he gave a new running back the spotlight in Pittsburgh. The decision not only ended Bell's career with the Steelers but started one for Conner.
So, let's explore both sides of this:
- Conner never gets the opportunity to start if Bell doesn't sit. The year prior, Bell played 85% of the Steelers' offensive snaps. That same season - Conner's rookie year - Conner ran the ball only 32 times compared to Bell's 321 rushes.
Mike Tomlin has always been a "feature back coach." No matter how much Conner improved from year one to year two, he wouldn't see a much bigger workload if Bell is still there.
- If Bell doesn't sit out, he's likely still in Pittsburgh today.
Despite wanting receiver/running back money in his contract, the Steelers wanted to make a deal with Bell work. If he stayed another season, they'd likely hand him a better deal than the five-year, $70 million offer in 2018.
It's hard to imagine the Steelers draft running backs in back-to-back-to-back drafts with Bell still around. Therefore, whether it's Anthony McFarland or Benny Snell Jr., someone isn't in Pittsburgh.
And finally, winning outcome. It's always tricky to predict how well a team would be if a player stayed or didn't stay. Here's one likely thing, though.
If Bell and Conner are still the first two running backs, the Steelers offense doesn't struggle as much without Ben Roethlisberger in 2019. Whether Bell lasted the entire season or Conner needed to step in because the injury bug still hit as hard, the running game has a more talented and experienced backfield to work with young quarterbacks.
3. What if Antonio Brown Never Bails?
Let's say Antonio Brown doesn't skip practice during Week 17 of the 2018 season. What happens?
Well, the Steelers still won so they would've missed the playoffs. What came after the game is where we'll start.
Mike Tomlin takes the podium at UPMC Rooney Sports Complex on Jan. 2, 2019, and talks about missing the postseason. The questions consist of Le'Veon Bell is coming back or if James Conner won the job, if they're going to draft another quarterback in the draft, and
The NFL Draft roles around and Diontae Johnson might not get drafted in the second round. There could be a bigger incentive to draft a quarterback higher in the draft. Maybe they sit on Terrell Edmunds - maybe the Steelers draft Lamar Jackson.
Then 2019 comes, and Roethlisberger's season ends. Rudolph steps in as the starter and has Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and James Washington. Even if the play-calling stays timid, Brown makes life much easier for the second-year quarterback.
And above anything, possibly the league's best receiver is still playing, instead of hoping for a comeback that might not happen.
2. What if Ben Roethlisberger Played in 2019?
Where would you like to start? Duck Season? Myles Garrett? Minkah? The playoffs?
If Ben Roethlisberger doesn't get hurt in Week 2, 2019 is no longer the craziest season a team who didn't make the playoffs ever had. The wild ride that kept every fan on their toes for 17 weeks would've been a lot more boring without one elbow injury.
Devlin and Mason
Before we even start talking about Devlin Hodges, we have to start with Mason Rudolph.
If Roethlisberger doesn't end his season 14 games early, Rudolph doesn't take over as the starter for eight games. This means Steelers fans don't hype him up, lose faith in him, and watch his replacement become as important of a topic as Roethlisberger's return.
It also means Myles Garrett never gets the opportunity to hit him with a helmet, Rudolph never "allegedly" says a racial slur and the character of the backup remains intact for whenever Roethlisberger calls it a career.
Hodges returns to Pittsburgh after the Josh Dobbs trade, but Duck Season never happens. The world would never get the chance to meet the fun-loving, confident undrafted quarterback from Alabama.
Imagine Twitter without Zach Banner and Devlin Hodges. (chills)
Minkah Fitzpatrick
Yes, the Steelers made a move on Fitzpatrick because of the lack of safety depth, not because of Roethlisberger's injury. We shouldn't change that.
Instead, let's talk about whether or not the Dolphins would still take the trade.
When the Steelers offered a first-round pick for the eventual All-Pro safety, the expectation was not a late first-rounder. At the time, the Steelers were 0-2, working with a backup quarterback and were believed to be dead. At worst, Miami thought they secured another top ten pick.
If Roethlisberger is playing, the Steelers possibly win Week 2 against the Seahawks, are still plenty alive on the season, and are not a team expected to finish under .500.
The value of Pittsburgh's first-round pick drops dramatically, and even if they still offer it to the Dolphins, it might not be enough for the trade actually to happen.
You have to ask whether or not Tomlin and Kevin Colbert add more to the trade or if they back out?
Playoffs?
We haven't even brought up the playoffs. An 8-8 finish with two backup quarterbacks and no James Conner, JuJu Smith-Schuster, or Stephon Tuitt, there's a strong belief the Steelers finish higher with Roethlisberger.
At the bare minimum, they win one of their last three games and earn the sixth seed in the AFC. Does it mean they win any postseason action? No. But it does change the course of the season.
1. What if Ryan Shazier Never Gets Hurt?
In the last ten years, no moment made more fans stop whatever they were doing more than Ryan Shazier's injury. Dec. 4, 2017, will forever sit in Steelers' history as heartbreak.
Nothing hurt more than knowing the challenges Shazier would have to overcome to get back to a normal life after suffering a spinal contusion in Week 13. The cherry on top, though, was thinking of the potential the 24-year-old had when his career ended.
So, we'll start there. Would Shazier be a Hall of Famer?
If you ask him, yes.
"I still want to make the Hall of Fame, still want to be the best linebacker in the NFL," Shazier said last summer.
While those dreams fade more and more each season, there was definitely some evidence Shazier could've reached his goals. In his four years in the NFL, he had three consecutive 85-plus tackle seasons and seven career interceptions.
He was only starting to reach new levels of play in 2017, and if someone were to ask whether or not he'd make it to Canton one day, I'd say most likely.
Super Bowl
The Steelers were also in the midst of the best season since 2004. They finished 13-3, finishing the year 3-1 after Shazier left. The defense allowed over 20 points only three times in the first 11 games, and four times in the last five.
It's hard to say Jacksonville's 45 points are cut significantly enough to matter, but maybe they don't even play them.
With Shazier still on the field, the defense might've found a way to beat the Patriots in Week 15. They then head into the playoffs as the first seed and play the 9-7 Tennessee Titans instead.
You're strictly guessing from there, but it still gives a chance for a different outcome. Even if it's the Jaguars in the AFC Championship Game, the Steelers are the hottest team in the NFL - that's a different story from barely squeaking out their last three wins.
Bud and Bush
Shazier's injury goes as deep as today. The need for an inside linebacker and the team's salary situation changes entirely if it never happens. Meaning both Devin Bush and Bud Dupree might not be in Pittsburgh right now.
It's tough to say the Steelers are trading up to ten in the 2019 draft with two reliable linebackers already on the team. Bush is a sensational talent, but the class had enough talent to sit back and look at other directions.
Shazier would also require a massive contract after the 2017 season. Pittsburgh was going to sign him, which means they would have to let someone walk down the line.
This could push the Steelers to pass on franchise tagging Le'Veon Bell a second time. If they find a way to keep both, Bud Dupree might fall victim to cap space.
$15.8 million would be much harder to come up with Shazier and Bell's contract. Even if Bell still leaves, that number isn't easy to obtain, and when T.J. Watt, James Conner, and JuJu Smith-Schuster need new deals, there's no way Dupree gets paid.
A different team than we know today. One that could be looking to replace #StairwayToSeven.
Noah Strackbein is a Senior Writer with AllSteelers. Follow Noah on Twitter @NoahStrack, and AllSteelers @si_steelers.
