Evaluating What T.J. Watt's Future Payday Looks Like
Get the brinks truck!
It's one of my favorite sayings, an indication that somebody is about to get paid unfathomable amounts, so much that they require an armored truck to transport it.
Pittsburgh Steelers linebacker T.J. Watt is set to rent about two or three. Watt, to this point, has been one of the most productive players the Steelers have drafted at the position... ever. Watt became the first player in franchise history to have multiple seasons of at least 13 sacks, along with earning first team All-Pro, Pro Bowl and team MVP honors in 2019. Watt was also arguably snubbed from the league's defensive player of the year award after accruing 14.5 sacks, 55 tackles, 8 forced fumbles, 4 fumbles recovered and 2 interceptions last season.
The last Steelers outside linebacker to receive a payday? LaMarr Woodley, when he was handed a clean 6 yr/$61.5 million deal, the most the Steelers have ever spent on the defensive side of the football. While the jury is still out on Bud Dupree's financial future in Pittsburgh, there's no denying Watt's set for a huge payday in the coming years.
It's not a matter of if, but how much dough Watt will look to take home.
The easy answer? Have the front office toss a blank check to Watt and allow him to fill out whatever figures he would like.
However, the negotiation table doesn't work like that, although the Steelers won't let Watt even sniff free agency after 2021, should he not have a new contract by then. Watt may want a deal after completion of his fourth season, and the Steelers may be willing to oblige. Inking Watt now and securing his production for the coming years would give great value to his deal, as the salary cap (and hence contracts) are expected to climb substantially on a yearly basis.
There's a lot of variables heading into Watt's future at the bank. Thanks to COVID-19, we may see a reduction in the salary cap due to potential losses in revenue, and that may have trickling effects into the next few seasons.
Only two players from the 2017 draft class have gotten serious extensions, as Christian McCaffery (4 yr, $64 million) and Eddie Jackson (4 yr, $58.4 million) have secured the bag before any of their fellow classmates. Watt looks to join that club (and blow those figures out of the water) within the next two seasons.
To find a reasonable figure for my prediction, I went back and tracked the last three years of significant deals handed to edge players (outside linebackers/defensive ends) to get an idea of where the money was going.
As it turns out, only six huge deals have been awarded since 2018, whether it be free agency or re-signing with the same team.
*guaranteed money is the money guaranteed at the signing of the deal
2020
Arik Armstead- 5 yr, $85 million in total, $17 million average and $26.65 million guaranteed.
2019
DeMarcus Lawrence- 5 yr, $105 million in total, $21 million average and $48 million guaranteed.
Frank Clark- 5 yr, $104 million in total, $20.8 million average and $43.8 million guaranteed.
Trey Flowers- 5 yr, $90 million in total, $18 million average and $56 million guaranteed.
2018
Khalil Mack- 6 yr, $141 million in total, $23.5 million average and $60 million guaranteed.
Danielle Hunter- 5 yr, $72 million in total, $14.4 million average and $16.9 million guaranteed.
When averaged/rounded out, the base contract to begin with looks like this:
5 years, $99.5 million dollars. Average of $19.1 million per season with $42 million guaranteed.
In terms of total value, Watt would rank just behind big brother J.J. Watt as the sixth-highest paid edge player in the league. The annual value would put him fourth above the likes of Von Miller, while the guaranteed money would put him fifth about Olivier Vernon.
I typically try to find percentage jumps from year to year and apply it to recent deals to gauge what a future deal looks like. However, Mack's mega-deal in 2018 and the lack of top edge rusher deals in 2020 would project downward for Watt.
Silver lining for a Steelers front office that wants to save pennies in every possible way the next few years? Definitely not, as Watt will likely command heavy money, and rightfully so. Whether the team waits until Roethlisberger's deal is off the books for more breathing room or sooner to get his deal out of the way is still a mystery, although the former is more likely than the latter.
In the six deals listed above, all but one deal had at five years set as the duration. Watt would be 32 years old at the end of a five year deal that starts in 2020, claiming majority of his prime and leaving room to negotiate a smaller deal with some gas left in the tank following that deal's expiration. I do like the five years as a staple.
As for dollars, 4/6 deals exceed the $100 million mark, with Flowers' $90 million being a close second. As previously stated, salary caps are still in question in terms of fluctuation, but I'd be almost willing to bet anything Watt's deal exceeds $100 million in total salary. Maybe not a mega-deal like Mack's $141 million, but Watt's production and health have warranted such a payday. I would also add that if Flowers is able to snag $90 million, I believe Watt is worth the extra $10 million to hit the triple digit mark.
In a league where players are constantly signing deals to up the last player to be paid, I foresee Watt's total amount being above the $105 million mark set by Lawrence, but not by much. I'd say around $115 million sounds like an ideal number the team could agree on, setting the average mark for $23 million per season.
As for guaranteed money at signing, that's a complete wildcard. Some players value it, while others simply aim for a higher average. With a range of $60-$16.9 million, this is as good of a guess as anybody's. For the sake of building a final contract, I'll roll with a figure over the average, as Watt theoretically claims $46 million in guaranteed salad.
My final deal, and where each figure would currently rank him among active contracts:
Length- 5 yrs (only three of the top-25 highest paid edge players have longer deals)
Total money- $115 million (second behind Khalil Mack)
Average money- $23 million (also second behind Mack)
Guaranteed money- $46 million (third behind DeMarcus Lawrence)
Obviously, I'm no NFL agent, however these figures do seem realistic given the expected resources the team will have at their disposal. I think paying Watt and still managing to fit his deal under Mack's colossal bank-thumper signed four years prior to Watt's new deal would be a win-win for both Watt and the organization.
Regardless of the actual figures of the deal, I think we can all agree that Watt will become very familiar with his local bankers soon, and he just might come up with a few lost friends of friends and estranged family once the ink dries on the new deal, whenever that may be.
