Texans Sacks Predictions for Rookie Will Anderson Jr.
The Houston Texans reshaped their future with back-to-back selections this April, taking quarterback C.J. Stroud and edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. second and third overall. Houston dealt the 33rd pick, as well as a first- and third-round selection in 2024 for the rights to draft Anderson.
Simply put, it was one of the most expensive non-quarterback trades in recent draft history.
Subsequently, there’s an inevitable sense of pressure surrounding Anderson. Pressure to live up not only to his draft capital, but the capital the Texans dealt, too. Pressure to generate some of his own in an AFC stocked with incredible talents at the quarterback position.
On The Rich Eisen Show, Anderson credited his co-star Stroud with keeping his head above water amidst the expectations.
“We’re just keeping each other level-headed through this process and making sure there’s no pressure,” Anderson said. “We both just go out there, have fun and make sure that we’re doing what we’ve been doing since we were little kids.”
Sacks aren’t everything, but they are what he’ll be judged by once his rookie season comes to a close. What kind of production can fans expect from the Defensive Rookie of the Year favorite?
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It’s important to remember that even as highly-touted as Anderson was, disrupting SEC games seemingly every Saturday, the NFL is a different animal. Rookie phenoms like Micah Parsons are a rarity, regardless of talent level. Asking for a record-setting season like Parsons’ 13-sack campaign is setting oneself up for disappointment.
Anderson could absolutely become a double-digit sack contributor in due time—even 2023 is a possibility. However, since 2010, there have only been eight rookies to hit that mark. There’s no harm in pumping the brakes a little.
If 10 isn’t the number, perhaps the sportsbooks provide a better estimate. DraftKings currently has Anderson’s line set at 8.25 sacks, with +105 odds on the over and -130 on the under.
Unfortunately for Anderson and the Texans, that’s a line concocted partly due to the surrounding cast. Houston is expected to lose—a lot—and that’s not conducive to pass-heavy game plans and true dropback opportunities. Further, a lack of pass rushing talent prescribes Anderson help in the form of chips and double teams. There are encouraging pieces to this young Texans defense, but outside of Anderson, nobody keeps offensive line coaches awake at night.
Ultimately, seven sacks feels like the fairest expectation for the Alabama product. That likely puts him in the conversation for most sacks in his rookie class, remaining competitive with early-round edge rushers that fell to teams better-prepared to employ them in positions to win.
Surpassing that mark should signal that Anderson is well on track to being the top-flight pass rusher he was drafted to be.
Luckily, Anderson and the rest of his young Houston teammates will have time to develop before the rebuild’s expectations turn towards the top of the AFC South. Until then, there’s time to discuss the menial things, like surpassing preseason sack predictions.
Anderson will debut on Sept. 10 against the Baltimore Ravens.
