Reasons to Believe: Titans at Ravens

NASHVILLE – Neither could not have been much better at the start.

Saturday will be the end of the line for either the Tennessee Titans or the Baltimore Ravens when they meet in an NFL divisional playoff contest at M&T Bank Stadium.

The NFL’s two highest-scoring teams in Week 1 of the 2019 regular season were the Ravens, who won 59-10 at Miami, and the Titans, who won 43-13 at Cleveland. The only other team to win by 30 on the opening weekend was the New England Patriots – and Tennessee closed out their campaign last Saturday.

The Titans lost four of their next five following their first start but eventually recovered and advanced to this point of the postseason for the second time in three years. The Ravens lost two of their next three but have not lost since and are in the divisional round for the seventh time in the last 12 years, but first since 2014.

“The message [this week] was, ‘Are we just going to be complacent with a playoff win, or are we going to try to continue to improve,’” Titans coach Mike Vrabel said. “I think that that’s what everybody that’s still playing has done. They’ve continued to, in some form or way.”

Only one team will continue playing after this game, and it will be the one that plays best in the game.

Three reasons to believe the Titans will win Saturday

• The man: Running back Derrick Henry has a chance to become the first player since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970 to rush for 180 yards or more in three consecutive games (regular and/or postseason). Henry ran for 211 in the regular season finale and 182 in the wild card victory at New England. In the past five years, Henry has two of the NFL’s top single-game playoff rushing performances. In addition to what he did at New England, he ran for 156 against Kansas City in a 2017 wild card contest.

• On a roll: Tennessee is the only playoff team to average better than 400 yards of total offense since week 7, when Ryan Tannehill became the starting quarterback. Over that stretch the offense averaged 406.2 yards per game and a league-best 6.94 yards per play. It also scored touchdowns on all but four of its 30 red zone possessions with Tannehill as the starter and by the end of the season the Titans led the NFL in red zone efficiency with 34 touchdowns on 45 attempts (75.6 percent).

• Picking it: Safety Kevin Byard (pictured) has faced Baltimore twice in his career. In 2017, his second season, he had two interceptions in addition six tackles. Last season he had one interception and seven tackles. The Ravens are one of three teams against which he has interceptions in more than one game (Houston and Cleveland are the others). Since the start of 2017, Byard has 17 interceptions, including a team-high five in 2019. No one else has more than 13 over the same span.

Three reasons to believe the Titans will lose Saturday

• The man: As if it’s not enough Lamar Jackson set an NFL record for rushing yards by a quarterback (1,206), the first-year starter also led the league with 36 touchdown passes, which is a franchise record. He threw three or more touchdown passes seven times, including each of his last three games, and had as many as five in a game (three times). In all he accounted for 43 touchdowns, which was the most by any player in 2019.

• On a roll: The Ravens enter the postseason on a 12-game win streak and in those 12 the defense has allowed the fewest yards per game (268.9) and fewest points per game (15.2) in the NFL. Baltimore has allowed just 18 touchdowns over that stretch (also the fewest in the NFL) while its defense has scored six touchdowns in its own right.

• Kicking it: Of Tennessee’s six divisional playoff games of the Titans era (1999-present), four were decided by three points or fewer. That is a notable statistic given that current kicker Greg Joseph has yet to attempt a field goal in three games with the Titans while Baltimore kicker Justin Tucker is the most accurate in NFL history. Tucker has connected on 90.8 percent of his field goal tries all-time, including 28 of 29 (96.6 percent) this season.

The bottom line

This will be a case of first things first.

Tennessee’s offense will have to be good on first down in order to get into its play-action pass game and limit the ability of the Ravens’ defense to blitz in obvious passing situations, which it does so well.

The Titans’ defense will have to be particularly good in the first quarter while it adjusts to the speed of Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson and the particulars of the Ravens’ scheme, which often has Jackson operating out of the pistol formation.

It’s not a situation where one will be good enough. Both things have to happen – and if they do, this game will be much more interesting than many people expect.