Analyzing the Vikings Picks in Mel Kiper Jr.'s Latest ESPN Mock Draft
There are all kinds of opinions and predictions across the internet regarding who the Vikings will take with their two first-round picks in the 2020 NFL Draft. We recently examined seven of the latest mock drafts, which featured a wide variety of cornerbacks, receivers, defensive linemen, and other players as options at No. 22 and No. 25 overall.
We'll continue to bring those mock draft roundups over the next month as April 23rd gets closer and closer, but sometimes we need to hone in on an individual mock. ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr., who has been doing this for decades and is arguably the most prominent draft expert out there, just released his Mock Draft 3.0, and his two first-round selections for the Vikings are pretty interesting.
As Kiper mentions in his tweet, he has the Vikings taking Baylor wide receiver Denzel Mims at No. 22 and Iowa defensive end A.J. Epenesa at No. 25, with the logic being that they can step in and replace Stefon Diggs and Everson Griffen, respectively.
I have a lot of respect for Kiper – who obviously knows what he's talking about – but I don't think this would be a great approach or outcome for the Vikings in the first round, because these picks come across as reaches that prioritize need over value. To explain more, let's take a look a closer look at both selections.
22nd pick: Denzel Mims, WR, Baylor
Kiper's explanation:
Yes, this is another team that has a need at wide receiver, and this is the draft to get one. Minnesota got this pick by trading Stefon Diggs last week, and they could use it to find a direct replacement. Adam Thielen is the clear WR1, but there's not much else on the roster that should excite Vikings fans. Mims is one of the biggest risers from the pre-draft process, as he was tremendous at the Senior Bowl and then blew up at the combine, running a 4.38 40 at 6-foot-3, 207 pounds and testing well in the other workouts. He had 28 touchdowns over the past three seasons at Baylor.
There's no debate that the Vikings have a need at wide receiver, and should be looking to draft one early, perhaps even in the first round. I just don't know if I like the value of Mims at No. 22 overall. Many prognosticators have Mims going in the second round, as he's not one of the most refined route-runners in this incredibly deep wide receiver class. Given how many talented receivers will be available in the first few rounds this year, you have to be pretty sure about a player to take them in the first round.
Kiper has a popular Vikings target – LSU's Justin Jefferson – going to the Eagles at pick No. 21. If that happens, I think the Vikings would be better served by waiting until the second round to take a receiver instead of reaching for someone like Mims. I'd rather take the best cornerback or offensive tackle available in this situation.
25th pick: AJ Epenesa, DE, Iowa
Kiper's explanation:
This has to be corner or defensive end, right? Free agent Everson Griffen has already said his goodbyes to Vikings fans, while Trae Waynes, Mackensie Alexander and Xavier Rhodes all departed this offseason. We know Mike Zimmer is always thinking about his defense, and that unit could use some help with one of Minnesota's first-round picks. Epenesa could be a capable replacement for Griffen as a defensive end with a big frame (6-foot-5, 275 pounds) who is good against the run and has room to grow as a pass-rusher.
This is another somewhat uninspiring selection, in my opinion. Yes, the Vikings lost Griffen and Stephen Weatherly this offseason, but I think a lot of national experts are undervaluing the potential of Ifeadi Odenigbo. The former seventh-round pick broke out with seven sacks last year in limited playing time and looks ready to seize a starting role. Thus, I don't think using a first-round pick on a defensive end makes a ton of sense unless that player is the clear best player available.
At No. 25, that's unlikely to be Epenesa, who doesn't have the kind of athletic profile the Vikings typically look for in a pass-rusher. He disappointed at the combine with a 5.04-second 40-yard dash, mediocre agility testing, and just 17 bench press reps. Look at the Vikings' four best pass-rushers of the 2010s: Jared Allen, Everson Griffen, Brian Robison, and Danielle Hunter. Each of the four were taken in the third or fourth round and posted better combine numbers than Epenesa. I'd bet the Vikings wait until the middle rounds and take an edge rusher with more athletic upside.
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