Justin Jefferson Left Out of Top 3 Wide Receivers in ESPN's League Survey
Vikings superstar Justin Jefferson has a case to be considered the best wide receiver in the NFL.
Apparently, the league isn't quite there yet. In ESPN's rankings of the game's top ten receivers, based on a survey of league executives, scouts, coaches, and players, Jefferson didn't even crack the top three.
Here's how the list shook out:
- Davante Adams, GB
- Cooper Kupp, LAR
- Ja'Marr Chase, CIN
- Justin Jefferson, MIN
- Tyreek Hill, MIA
- Stefon Diggs, BUF
- DeAndre Hopkins, ARI
- Mike Evans, TB
- Deebo Samuel, SF
- DK Metcalf, SEA
That's followed by an impressive list of honorable mentions and several players who also received votes, including the Vikings' Adam Thielen.
Before I give my thoughts, here's what ESPN said about Jefferson.
Jefferson was an ascending star after his 2020 rookie year. Now, he's a bona fide star after his sophomore year. He put together a near-perfect season, recording a stellar 90.1 Pro Football Focus rating after catching 108 of his 168 targets for 1,616 yards and 10 touchdowns. Jefferson also ranked 14th in yards per catch (15.0), which is impressive considering his usage.
The Vikings didn't hide their intentions to force-feed Jefferson the ball, no matter the coverage. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, the LSU product recorded 2,060 air yards, which was 45.2% of the team's total output, 3% higher than any other player in the league. And despite the presence of Adam Thielen, Jefferson also saw 28.9% of Minnesota's targets, the third-most in the NFL.
"He's not a burner, but he's got everything else," an NFL offensive coach said. "Instincts, competitive, great route-runner, can win at all levels of the field."
But even the burner conversation seems moot after Jefferson ran a 4.43-second 40-yard dash before the 2020 draft and broke 11 plays for 30-plus yards in 2021. As multiple scouts and coaches said, I'll take his speed all day.
"He wants to be the best in the game, and you can feel that," an AFC coach said. "He'll get a gazillion targets in that [new Vikings] offense."
My take is this: I have no problem with Jefferson trailing Adams and Kupp on this list, even though I think you can at least make an argument about taking him over either one for the 2022 season. Adams has been the total package for several years now and Kupp is coming off the most productive wide receiver season of all time.
Putting Chase ahead of Jefferson is where I have to disagree. Jefferson had 27 more catches and 161 more yards than Chase last year (regular season only). He led him in PFF grade (90.1 to 83.1), yards per route run (2.59 to 2.51), and Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (416 to 326). Jefferson's contested catch rate and drop rate were also both better than Chase's.
After an incredible rookie season in 2020 in which he finished fourth in the league in receiving yards despite not starting the first two games, Jefferson was just an honorable mention in ESPN's rankings last year. After an incredible rookie season in which he finished fourth in the league in receiving yards (two spots behind Jefferson), Chase is No. 3 on this year's list. How does that make sense? Because Chase had more yards at LSU three years ago, was drafted higher in his class, and went to the Super Bowl? None of those should matter that much in ranking receivers for the 2022 season.
"He's not a burner, but he's got everything else," said an unnamed NFL coach that ESPN talked to. What? Jefferson has 4.4 speed and runs past cornerbacks with regularity. Speed is not lacking from his game at all.
Chase is an amazing player who is going to have a fantastic career, but Jefferson deserves to be in the top three right now. That's how I view it, at least.
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