Vikings 2021 Mock Draft Roundup: Late December Edition
The Vikings' loss to the Bears on Sunday didn't mathematically eliminate them from playoff contention, but for practical purposes, it ended the meaningful portion of their season and shifted the big-picture focus towards 2021. With their chances of reaching the postseason now at less than five percent, the reality is that the Vikings will be watching from home when the tournament starts in mid-January.
While one can lament missed opportunities in close losses to the Titans, Seahawks, Cowboys, and Bears, it would be difficult to argue that the Vikings deserve to be a playoff team this year. They simply have too many flaws, too many roster holes, and too many injuries to be taken seriously as a contender right now. There are reasons to be optimistic about next season, but there are a lot of questions that need to be answered in this upcoming offseason if a major leap forward is going to occur.
The simplest way for a team like the Vikings – who don't have much salary cap flexibility at the moment – to address some of their weaknesses is via the draft. Their strong 2020 rookie class is perhaps the biggest reason to be hopeful about the direction of the franchise, but Rick Spielman needs to follow that up by adding another talented group this upcoming April.
With that in mind, it's time for another way-too-early 2021 mock draft roundup. When I first did this back in early November, the Vikings were 2-5 and picking tenth overall. Now they're 6-8 and picking 14th, though that draft slot could still move in either direction based on the results of the season's final two weeks. Things have also changed since then in regards to what prospects might be available, given the additional evaluation of college players that has occurred over the past seven weeks.
To get a sense of what position groups and names could be options for the Vikings in the first round, let's take a look at some of the players selected for them in recent mock drafts from national analysts. For each mock, I'll include the rationale from the writer and my own breakdown of the pick. For the purpose of this exercise, we're obviously assuming that Spielman doesn't trade back to recoup a second-round pick, but that feels like a very legitimate possibility given his history.
Let's get a couple things out of the way. The Vikings probably aren't taking a quarterback, given Kirk Cousins' contract situation and the strong likelihood that none of the top four fall to their pick. Cornerback is an option, but would they really take another one after spending two of their top four picks on corners in 2020? Wide receiver could be considered, with Adam Thielen's age and the lack of depth behind him and Justin Jefferson. However, at the moment, the vast majority of mock drafts have the Vikings addressing the trenches in the first round by taking either an offensive or defensive lineman.
Let's get to the mocks.
Azeez Ojulari, EDGE, Georgia (PFF's Mike Renner)
- Date of mock: 12/23
- Vikings draft slot: 14th
- Full mock
Renner's reasoning:
One of the biggest risers in college football this year, Ojulari consistently clowned left tackles throughout the SEC. He earned an 87.7 pass-rushing grade in nine games this season. Ojulari is undersized at 240 pounds, but his bend makes us think that it won’t be a massive issue in the NFL.
Ragatz's analysis:
During the lead-in to the 2020 draft and even in my first 2021 roundup, I've remained adamant that the Vikings will never draft an edge rusher in the first round while Spielman is GM. They haven't done so since 2005 (unless you count Anthony Barr, which I don't), the year before Spielman arrived, and their philosophy since then has been to target raw, athletic defensive ends in the middle rounds. It has worked quite well, with Ray Edwards (fourth round), Brian Robison (fourth), Everson Griffen (fourth), and Danielle Hunter (third) having plenty of success in the league. D.J. Wonnum (2020 fourth round) could potentially become the latest in that line if he keeps developing.
However, I think I might be willing to soften my stance in this year's draft cycle. Why? Because the Vikings desperately need to get after the quarterback more often than they did this year. Here's an eye-popping stat pointed out by The Athletic's Chad Graff:
Hunter should be back and healthy next year, but that's not a sure thing. Back in October, his camp leaked that Hunter wants to become the highest-paid defender in the NFL or be traded. But with no guarantees that he'll return to peak form after missing a full year and having surgery on his neck, why would the Vikings do that? It'll be a major storyline to track in the upcoming offseason. Beyond Hunter, Ifeadi Odenigbo will be a restricted free agent after failing to make a huge leap in production in a starting role this year. Wonnum has potential, but he's not a sure thing.
Given all of that context, I could see Spielman finally spending a first-round pick on an edge rusher. And Ojulari is an interesting option. He had 6.5 sacks and two forced fumbles in nine games this year and can do things like this:
Samuel Cosmi, OT, Texas (Bleacher Report's Matt Miller)
- Date of mock: 12/22
- Vikings draft slot: 14th
- Full mock
Miller's reasoning:
With Brian O'Neill and Ezra Cleveland providing a blueprint, it seems like the Vikings prefer lean, athletic offensive linemen who can be molded into their roles. Cosmi is athletic and full of potential. If he can get stronger in the running game, he could be very special on the blindside.
Ragatz's analysis:
There's going to be a lot of speculation about the Vikings going with an offensive lineman in the first round for the second time in the past three drafts due to the ongoing struggles of that unit this season, and rightfully so. I think it has to be one of the top position groups the team considers. Right now, the Vikings have three foundational pieces on the O-line in Brian O'Neill, Garrett Bradbury, and Ezra Cleveland. Riley Reiff has played well at left tackle this year but could be a cap casualty this offseason, and there's a massive hole at that fifth spot after Dakota Dozier proved to be arguably the worst starting offensive lineman in the NFL this season.
Everything revolves around the Vikings' decisions with Reiff and Cleveland. If Reiff stays, would they really take a tackle in the first round? Do they plan to eventually move Cleveland to left tackle, or could he remain at guard? There's a lot of uncertainty there, but adding another talented lineman would give the coaching staff important flexibility. Cosmi fits the Vikings' preferred mold to a T; the 6'7" tackle is a highly athletic player who has some power at the point of attack and possesses a ton of upside. Plus, he scored a touchdown in college, which means he would fit right in.
Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern (The Draft Network's Jordan Reid)
- Date of mock: 12/22
- Vikings draft slot: 14th
- Full mock
Reid's reasoning:
It feels as if it’s said every offseason, but the Vikings are in need of fortifying their trenches on both sides of the ball. With Riley Reiff’s future in question as an unrestricted free agent, the long-term position of Ezra Cleveland still up in the air as a guard or tackle, and needing an upgrade from Dakota Dozier at left guard, Slater is an easy selection here. With the capabilities of playing all five positions up front combined with his athleticism, he’s an ideal fit in the team’s zone scheme at multiple positions.
Ragatz's analysis:
If the Vikings take an offensive lineman in the first round, I don't think there's a more perfect fit than Slater. The reason for that is, as Reid mentions, he's easily the most versatile of the top OL prospects in the 2021 draft. Slater started at right tackle at Northwestern, blossomed at left tackle, and also has the potential to be a dominant interior player if a team moves him there. That versatility would give the Vikings a ton of options with how they deploy him, Cleveland, and either Reiff or someone else in the fifth spot.
I may be slightly biased as a Northwestern alum who covered him, but I think Slater is going to be special. His 2019 film against Ohio State's Chase Young is some elite stuff. Slater opted out of this season, but he's shown enough to be more or less locked in as a first round pick. If he performs well at the combine – assuming there is a combine – he might end up being off the board well before the Vikings' pick (Miller just mocked him to the Bengals at No. 3 overall). This would be an excellent addition up front.
Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU (CBS Sports' Chris Trapasso)
- Date of mock: 12/23
- Vikings draft slot: 14th
- Full mock
Trapasso's reasoning:
Moehrig is a long, rangy and assertive safety with deep middle skills and linebacker-like tackling traits.
Ragatz's analysis:
This draft presents a bit of an interesting quandary for the Vikings. Two of their top positions of need on the defensive side of the ball are three-technique defensive tackle and safety, assuming Anthony Harris walks in free agency. The issue is that those two positions are seen as weak ones in this draft class. Some analysts don't believe there are any three-techs or safeties worthy of being taken in the first round.
However, there's still a long ways to go (four months, to be exact) until draft time, so a lot can change. Athletic testing results and other events in the pre-draft cycle could elevate players into the first round conversation. If the Vikings do look for a Harris replacement at safety, Moehrig is an intriguing option. He has six interceptions, 20 passes defended, 4.5 tackles for loss, and two forced fumbles over the past two seasons. Jeff Gladney's former teammate is arguably the top safety in the class and would give the Vikings a young building block at the position. Not only is Harris a free agent, but Harrison Smith turns 32 in December.
Wyatt Davis, G, Ohio State (Sporting News's Vinnie Iyer)
- Date of mock: 12/23
- Vikings draft slot: 14th
- Full mock
Iyer's reasoning:
The Vikings have been hurting at guard next to first-round center Garrett Bradbury. Davis can be an elite NFL interior blocker and already has showed plenty in the way of paving the way for the Buckeyes' prolific rushing attack before deciding to opt in back into the season.
Ragatz's analysis:
Davis has been linked to the Vikings for quite some time now, as he's an elite guard prospect who has been dominant at Ohio State. There's no question that he would be a massive upgrade over Dozier and would help bolster the offensive line. The question here is about value: is it worth spending a mid-first-round pick on a guard? Tackle, wide receiver, and several spots on defense are all seen as more valuable positions than guard. If the Vikings were to pull the trigger, they would need to be sure that Davis is a special, can't-miss talent.
Other players mocked to the Vikings recently:
- Kwity Paye, EDGE, Michigan (The Athletic, DraftWire)
- Ojulari (Pro Football Network)
- Carlos Basham Jr., EDGE, Wake Forest (WalterFootball)
- Alijah Vera-Tucker, IOL, USC (CBS Sports)
- Trey Lance, QB, NDSU (Pro Football Network)
- Gregory Rousseau, EDGE, Miami (Yahoo! Sports)
Welcome to draft season, folks. I'll have tons of draft content right here over the next four months, including roundups like this one every month or so.
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