Where Do the Vikings Rank Among the NFL's Winless Teams?

The Vikings are 0-2, which is particularly frustrating because they could probably be 2-0 if they didn't have seven turnovers already. It's not a great place to be: Roughly ten percent of teams that start 0-2 have made it to the playoffs over the past 20 years.

It also means that this Sunday's game against the Chargers is kind of like a playoff game. Both MIN and LAC are 0-2, and only one of the last 99 teams to start 0-3 — the 2018 Texans — has made the postseason.

Following Sunday's games, ESPN's Bill Barnwell ranked the eight teams that are currently 0-2. He has the Vikings at No. 4 — behind the Bengals, Chargers, and Broncos and ahead of the Patriots, Bears, Cardinals, and Texans. (The Panthers and Steelers may join the group on Monday night).

Barnwell's evaluation of the Vikings is that they've had a great passing offense and not much else through two games. He notes that Minnesota's fumble luck will improve — they've lost all six of their fumbles and failed to recover their only opponent fumble — which should even things out in the turnover department. Barnwell also pointed out that while Brian Flores' defense has blitzed nearly half the time, those plays haven't yet been effective.

The problem is that it hasn't worked. Just 5.6% of Minnesota's blitzes have produced a sack; the league average is usually around 8.5% over a full season. Baker Mayfield and Jalen Hurts have gone 19-of-28 for 235 yards against those blitzes this season; the Vikings' 90.3 QBR against when blitzing ranks 27th in the NFL.

Injuries to Marcus Davenport, Garrett Bradbury, and Christian Darrisaw have been issues. Barnwell also notes that the Vikings' 2022 draft class is starting to look like a complete flop.

The team's top two picks from the 2022 draft were defensive backs Andrew Booth Jr. and Lewis Cine; both have been active this season after battling injuries a year ago, but neither has played a defensive snap. Linebacker Brian Asamoah, a third-rounder last year, has played 11 defensive snaps, while 2022 second-round pick Ed Ingram was a disaster at guard last season and hasn't gotten off to a great start this season. There are real concerns that general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah's first draft might be a total wash given how players have either performed poorly, suffered serious injuries or been unable to force their way onto the field.

One key issue, beyond turnovers, is that the Vikings rank 28th in rushing success rate, which is making their offense one-dimensional. They need much more out of Alexander Mattison and their run blockers moving forward.

Ultimately, the outlook for the Vikings isn't great, but it could be worse. Their strong passing game and strange turnover margin suggests they should improve, and playing in the NFC North means they're far from out of it. However, they've already dug a big hole at 0-2 and still have several top teams on their schedule. The Vikings' underlying metrics from last season are another reason for pessimism, Barnwell says.

The Vikings should improve. Their schedule alternates brutal matchups (the Chargers, Chiefs and 49ers) with easier ones (the Panthers and Bears) over the next month of the season. They'll stop fumbling as often and won't lose every one of the fumbles they drop over the rest of the season. In the NFC, nine wins might be enough to earn a playoff berth, and that's not an impossible ask of Kevin O'Connell's team.

At the same time, we have

a lot of evidence

that the Vikings weren't

truly

a 13-win team last season. They finished 28th in DVOA, shed veteran players this offseason, aren't getting much from their 2022 draft class and haven't been particularly lucky to start this season. Under that logic, it shouldn't be much of a surprise they are 0-2, and the odds might be against them turning things around and getting back in the playoff picture.

It's not an understatement to suggest that the season is on the line on Sunday against the Chargers.

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