49ers vs Colts DraftKings Showdown Quarterback Strategy: Brock Purdy vs Philip Rivers

Breaking down the DraftKings Showdown quarterback decision for 49ers vs. Colts, we compare Brock Purdy’s steady ceiling to Philip Rivers’ high-variance upside on Monday night.

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) drops back to pass against the Carolina Panthers during the first half at Levi's Stadium. | Kelley L Cox-Imagn Images

Tonight’s showdown at DraftKings features two teams going in two different directions. The San Francisco 49ers (10-4) enter Monday night with a four-game winning streak and a chance to win the NFC West with victories over the Indianapolis Colts (8-6), Chicago Bears (11-4), and Seattle Seahawks (12-3). 

The Colts looked playoff-bound after their first 10 games (8-2), but their close losses to the Chiefs (23-20), Texans (20-16), and Seahawks (18-16), paired with the loss of Daniel Jones, give Indianapolis a slim chance of making the postseason.

Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers (DK: $10,400)

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) prepares to pass the ball during the first quarter against the Tennessee Titans at Levi's Stadium. | Kyle Terada-Imagn Images

Over the past four games, Purdy completed 69.2% of his passes, leading to 913 combined yards with nine touchdowns and three interceptions while averaging 29.25 passes per game. He's coming off his best game (339 combined yards with three touchdowns), which included five completions of 20 yards or more. This year, Purdy has seven interceptions and 12 passing touchdowns.

The Colts sit 14th in quarterback defense (272.60 fantasy points) in four-point passing touchdowns leagues. They’ve allowed the second-most completions (332) while being tied for last in pass attempts allowed (524). Quarterbacks have 18 passing touchdowns with minimal damage in the run game (45/157/0 – 3.5 yards per carry). Two quarterbacks delivered impact games.

• Matthew Stafford (379/4)
• Justin Herbert (451 combined yards with three touchdowns)

Over the past six games, the 49ers scored 22 touchdowns and kicked 12 field goals on 61 possessions, giving them a scoring rate of 55.7%. I have Purdy on a path to score 19.54 fantasy points in DraftKings scoring, putting him just below the 2X floor. I don’t view him as a captain option on this showdown slate, but this game could be high scoring.

Philip Rivers, Indianapolis Colts (DK: $8,800)

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Philip Rivers (17) walks to the locker room following the second quarter against the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field. | Kevin Ng-Imagn Images

The success, floor, and ceiling of Rivers is a complete wild card in his second NFL start after retiring four years ago. The Colts want to establish the run, giving their senior quarterback a chance to make some deep play-action passes while relying on his quick release to move the chains. 

Indianapolis scored 20 points or fewer in five of its past six matchups, after opening the year with a potent offense (270 points – 33.75 per game).

The 49ers rank poorly defending quarterbacks (21st – 290.95 fantasy points). They allow a high completion rate (68.8%), with quarterbacks having the most completions (330) in the league and 26 touchdowns. Over the past three weeks, San Francisco held quarterbacks to short games (Bryce Young – 184 combined yards with one touchdown, Shedeur Sanders (155 combined yards with one touchdown), and Cam Ward (170/2), helped by each offense ranking poorly in passing stats.

• Matthew Stafford (389/3)
• C.J. Stroud (348 combined yards with two touchdowns)
• Matthew Stafford (280/3)
• Jacoby Brissett (452/2)

The Colts have depth and talent at their receiving positions, giving Rivers a chance to outperform expectations in fantasy points. His salary seems higher based on his first game (120/1), but he has a favorable matchup. I have him projected to pass for 232 yards with 1.5 touchdowns.