Bo Nix, Courtland Sutton, JK Dobbins Lead The Rankings of Best Stacks in DFS for MNF's Double Header

The NFL lined up another Monday night doubleheader, giving the fantasy and betting markets a whole night of action. The New York Jets (0-3) look for their first win on the road vs. the winless Miami Dolphins (0-3). Later in the night, the Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) are in survival mode after losing Joe Burrow for many weeks. They take on the Broncos in Denver after losing two closer games (29-28 – @IND and 23-20 – @LAC) on the road.

Two weeks ago, 56 teams ($14,920.54) won the DraftKings Monday Night Special Content ($500,000 for first place, with a $20 entry fee – 88,235 teams). Here is that winning lineup:

DraftKings, DFS, Fantasy Football — DraftKings Winning Lineup: Monday Night Football | DraftKings

The key to winning these short game slates is finding the value at a couple of positions, which opens up more salary for the top-tier players. The strength of the player pool in this type of event can fluctuate, creating many lower-priced coin tosses.

Quarterbacks

All quarterbacks on this slate have a tight range of pricing ($6,000 to $5,200) at DraftKings, requiring all options to score more than 20.00 fantasy points in DK scoring to justify any investment.

Justin Fields, New York Jets (DK: $5,500)

Fields was a winning DFS player in Week 1 (29.50 fantasy points), but the Buffalo Bills knocked him out of the game the following week after being on the field for 62% of the Jets’ plays. He returns to game action after sitting out Week 3 with a concussion. New York only has two viable receiving options (Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall), with the latter rotating at running back alongside two other players.

The Dolphins’ defense has already allowed three rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks (21/82/1 – Daniel Jones – 2 and Drake Maye – 1). Miami also gave up six passing touchdowns, with quarterbacks gaining 8.9 yards per pass attempt.

Fields projects the best at quarterback on Monday night, thanks to his ability to run and steal rushing touchdowns, plus his lower salary.

Bo Nix, Denver Broncos (DK: $6,000)

Over the first three games, Nix has yet to deliver a 4X game for his salary due to dismal passing stats (153/1, 206/3, and 176/1). He’s already thrown three interceptions, with no edge on the ground (19/71). Last year in Week 17 in Cincinnati, Nix gained 250 combined yards with three passing touchdowns.

Cincinnati comes off a poor showing on the road, partly due to Jake Browning tossing two interceptions that were run back for touchdowns. The Bengals’ defense has been on the field for over 300 minutes in each matchup, while allowing 10 touchdowns and seven field goals over 34 possessions. Their offensive line has struggled all year (10 sacks and 2.4 yards per rush).

On the positive side, quarterbacks gained only 6.9 yards per pass attempt vs. Cincinnati, with tight ends (19/178/2) having some success.

Nix should have success moving the ball, but he also needs Browning to move the ball against Denver’s defense, which was highly touted before the season. The Broncos’ passing game rates well in this game, and their young quarterback was very good over the latter part of last season.

Jake Browning, Cincinnati Bengals (DK: $5,700)

Based on receiving talent, Jake Browning has the highest ceiling in passing stats. Unfortunately, rostering Ja’Marr Chase will force a daily game manager to find value to find off their roster. The Bengals aren’t playing well offensively while drawing a talented defense, suggesting Browning will be a lower percentage own on this slate. The Broncos’ defense has 12 sacks with quarterbacks tossing only two touchdowns (TEN, IND, and LAC).

Tua Tagovailoa, New York Jets ($5,200)

In his first home start, Tagovailoa passed for 315 yards and two touchdowns, giving him 22.60 fantasy points in DraftKings scoring. He passed for 331 yards and two scores in his only matchup at home against the Jets, helped by 47 pass attempts. Miami has talent at wide receiver, and De’Von Achane is a weapon catching the ball out of the backfield. The Dolphins aim to run the ball to slow down the clock, while New York seeks to maintain a similar pace.

The Bills ran over the Jets’ defense in Week 2 (43/224/3), and Aaron Rodgers beat their secondary for four touchdowns to open the year. New York has allowed 91 points after the three games (12 touchdowns and seven field goals over 33 possessions) while facing two good offenses (BUF and TB). Quarterbacks only have 86 pass attempts vs. the Jets over their three matchups.

Tagovailoa falls move into the wild-card area this week in the DFS market. There have been signs of Miami making more plays downfield, but the Dolphins are move-reliant on moving the ball with Achane.

Running Backs

DraftKings, DFS, Week 4 — Running Back Pricing, DFS Week 4 | Shawn Childs, OnSI

De’Von Achane, Miami Dolphins ($7,000)

Achane is the best floor running back on this slate due to his ability to catch the ball (18/141/2 on 23 targets), but he has yet to have over 12 carries in a game. His best showing also came at home (26.20 fantasy points). Last year against the Jets, Achane gained 190 combined yards with two touchdowns and six catches on 31 touches.

Over the first three games, running backs gained 3.6 yards per rush (83/300/3) against New York with 11 catches for 64 yards and one touchdown on 13 targets.

For Achane to be an edge tonight, he must score close to 28.00 fantasy points. He has the game to reach that plateau, and he should be a high percentage own.

J.K. Dobbins, Denver Broncos ($5,800)

The consistency factor (14.80, 15.50, and 15.30 fantasy points) should work in favor of Dobbins in his matchup against the Bengals. He has a touchdown in each game while averaging 15 touches. Dobbins was on the field a season high 67% in the Broncos' last game vs. the Chargers.

The Bengals can struggle with running backs (474 combined yards with five touchdowns and 14 catches on 90 touches). Jordan Mason (16/116/2) gained the most rushing yards, while Dylan Sampson (93 combined yards with eight catches), Bhayshul Tuten (8/42 with two catches for 32 yards and touchdowns), and Travis Etienne (89 combined yards with one score and two catches) posted good games.

Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals (DK: $6,600)

Based on his salary and low output (47/93/1 with eight catches for 43 yards), Brown will be a popular fade tonight. Cincinnati must get the ball out quicker and make plays against the Broncos’ defense. Denver has no answer for Jonathan Taylor in Week 2 (25/165 with two catches for 50 yards and one touchdown), and Omarion Hampton found his NFL rhythm against him last week (119 combined yards with one touchdown and six catches).

Breece Hall, New York Jets (DK: $5,700)

For most of the fantasy market, Hall’s high ranking this week will be another head-shaker. He teased in Week 1 (145 combined yards with two catches on 21 touches), but the Bills and Bucs bottled him up in back-to-back matchups (19/50 with six catches for 40 yards). He has yet to score a touchdown, and New York continues to rotate in two other backs. In his only game vs. Miami last season, Hall gained 72 combined yards with one touchdown and three catches.

Running backs gained 4.7 yards per carry vs. the Dolphins (75/353/1) with 15 catches for 164 yards (10.9 YPC) and no touchdowns on 17 targets.

Hall must score 23.00 fantasy points in PPR formats to fit a winning profile in the DFS market.

Best off the rest Running Backs on Monday Night:

Ollie Gordon brings goal-line value, and he also possesses a solid pass-catching foundation from his college experience.

Braelon Allen can get carries near the goal-line, and New York will have him on the field for over 25% of their plays in most weeks.

RJ Harvey has been on the field for about 30% of the Broncos’ snaps over the first three games, but he comes off a dull showing (2/2 with three catches for 14 yards). His ability to score from anywhere in the field puts Harvey in the dark horse category on this slate.

Wide Receivers

Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals (DK: $8,000)

Despite the struggles of the Bengals’ offense this year, Chase stumbles into Week 4 as the 10th-ranked wide receiver in PPR formats (51.00 fantasy points), thanks to one big game (14/165//1 on 16 targets). The Browns (2/26) and Vikings (5/59) kept him in check in his other two matchups. Last year, Chase had nine catches for 102 yards on 15 targets at home against the Broncos.

Denver will look to match up CB Patrick Surtain as much as possible on Chase. He allowed 10 catches for 114 yards on 16 targets this year, according to Pro Football Reference. Wide receivers have 40 catches for 422 yards and one touchdown on 69 targets against Denver this year, with Keenan Allen (7/65/1) and Quentin Johnston (6/69) having the most success.

I’m putting Chase in the fade column tonight due to his salary requiring 30+ fantasy points. He is the one wideout that can wreck a DFS slate if he plays well.

Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals (DK: $5,600)

In the season-long contests, Higgins was probably benched a lot this week due to his matchup and his empty start to the year (3/33, 3/56/1, and 1/15). He blitzed the Broncos’ defense last year (11/131/3), putting more shine on his name in this game for Denver’s defensive game plan. The downgrade in quarterback hurts his ceiling, but Higgins has a much more favorable salary for his potential.

Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos (DK: $6,100)

The Chargers’ defense struggled to cover Sutton all day in Week 3, leading to six catches for 116 yards and one score on eight targets. He gained an impressive 14.8 yards per catch, due to one reception gaining at least 20 yards and hitting on a 52-yard touchdown. Last season, Sutton had five catches for 55 yards and one score against the Bengals.

After facing 87 passes over the first two games, Cincinnati’s defense faced fewer offensive plays last week due to Jake Browning throwing two pick-6s. As a result, the Vikings' wide receiver had a light day (9/121 on 15 targets) of work. Wideouts have 38 catches for 454 yards and two touchdowns on 64 targets against the Bengals, with no wide receiver gaining over 76 yards (Parker Washington). They’ve faced Joe Flacco, Trevor Lawrence, and Jake Browning this year.

Garrett Wilson, New York Jets (DK: $6,200)

Lack of competition for targets has been a big win for Wilson over the first three games (7/95/1, 4/50, and 10/84/1 on 30 targets), almost giving him a Malik Nabers’ 2024 opportunity (170 targets). On the downside, the Jets averaged only 26.7 passes over their first three matchup while struggling to hit Wilson downfield (10.9 yards per catch with two catches of 20 yards or longer). Last year, he caught seven of his 10 targets for 114 yards on the road against the Dolphins (4/51 on five targets at home).

Miami has allowed the fewest number of catches (30) and targets (39) to wide receivers this year, leading to 337 yards and four touchdowns. They faced the Colts, Bills, and Patriots, with quarterbacks only attempting 80 passes despite gaining 8.9 yards per pass attempt.

Wilson should be active in this game by default.

Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins (DK: $6,500)

After three games (4/40, 6/109, and 5/49/1), Hill is on pace to catch 85 passes for 1,122 yards and six touchdowns on 130 targets, which has more of a 2024 smell (81/959/6) than his dynamic year in 2023 (119/1,799/13). Last year, he broke out of his 11-game slump with under 100 yards receiving against the Jets at home (10/115/1).

Wide receivers have 30 catches for 489 yards and three touchdowns on 48 targets against the Jets, with DK Metcalf (4/83) and Mike Evans (4/33/1) slowed down by Sauce Gardner (6/102 on 14 targets).

Hill tends to work the short areas of the field, allowing him to pick up a lot of trash catches. His route running suggests that Jaylen Waddle will see just as much coverage by Gardner. Based on expected targets, Hill should be in the wide receiver mix on Monday night.

Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins (DK: $5,500)

Waddle has a touchdown in two consecutive games (5/68/1 and 5/39/1), but he has yet to have more than six targets in a matchup. Miami has kept him close to the line of scrimmage (9.8 yards per catch – 12.8 in 2024 and 14.1 in 2023). He also played well last year at home against the Jets (9/99 on 12 targets).

Troy Franklin, Denver Broncos (DK: $4,100)

Based on his success in Week 2 (8/100/1), Franklin projects as an excellent value if Denver is forced to throw. He has had WR2 snaps in all three games this year.

Marvin Mims, Denver Broncos (DK: $3,700)

Mims only has six catches for 40 yards and one touchdown on 10 targets over the first three games, with most of his chances coming close to the line of scrimmage (6.7 yards per catch). He’s listed as questionable for tonight’s game with a hip issue, but the Broncos expect him to play. He brings big play ability, and Mims just missed on a couple of scores last season.

Tight Ends

The tight end position looks messy tonight. Evan Engram should be the best option based on his previous resume, but he missed last week with a back issue. Denver only had him on the field for 34% and 43% of their play over their first two matchups. Harold Fannin (7/63) and T.J. Hockenson (5/49/1) posted teen scores vs. the Bengals over the first three weeks.

Darren Waller returns to game action after retiring before the 2024 season. He missed the first three weeks with a hip issue.

The Bengals should give Mike Gesicki more targets with Noah Fant out with an injury. Tight ends have 14 catches for 168 yards on 24 targets vs. Denver.

Mason Taylor brings upside talent to the Jets’ offense, but he has yet to establish himself in New York’s receiver rotation. I could see him scoring while being part of a low-value pairing with Justin Fields.